4-Point Play: Four questions for Kentucky entering SEC play

2023 has turned to 2024 and the non-conference slate has transitioned to SEC play. It’s time to find out what these Cats are really made of, starting with a tough road test at Florida. What have we learned about Kentucky through 12 games and what do we need answered in the final 19?

4-Point Play has four questions to consider as the conference schedule begins in Gainesville.

Can the Cats compete on the glass?

The Wildcats enter conference play ranked No. 112 in rebound average (38.3), 176 overall in rebounding margin (1.8) and No. 245 in offensive rebounds (9.9). You could chalk up some of the early woes to injury, Kentucky missing a trio of 7-footers and small-ball being a necessity. Two of the three are now back, though, and the team is still struggling to put things together on the glass.

It lost the rebounding battle vs. UNC Wilmington 40-39 in Aaron Bradshaw’s debut, then won 41-31 at Penn with Bradshaw and Tre Mitchell combining for 20 boards. The Cats made a statement with a 43-32 win on the glass vs. North Carolina — Ugonna Onyenso’s debut — before a so-so effort at Louisville, winning 37-35.

Then came the real setback, losing 45-40 to Illinois State while giving up 24 offensive rebounds.

“We reverted back to where we were,” John Calipari said, adding “If you are not going to rebound, I am not going to play you.”

Up next? The top-ranked rebounding team in college basketball, Florida pulling down 45.4 boards per contest, 16.2 being offensive — No. 4 nationally. The Gators have only been outrebounded once this season, a game they still managed to win by 15.

There is no bigger question than Kentucky’s effort on the glass, and it’ll need an immediate answer down in Gainesville.

Who emerges in the frontcourt?

The bench is the ultimate motivator and Calipari made it clear he isn’t afraid to use it if the rebounding issues aren’t fixed sooner rather than later. Bradshaw was a force against Penn and UNC, but has come back down to Earth a bit, combining for just four points in his last two outings. Onyenso is averaging 2.7 blocks through three games, but he’s pulled down just five total rebounds to go with five points.

Meanwhile, Tre Mitchell continues to play high-level basketball — he ain’t coming off the floor — while Justin Edwards is slowly stacking strong all-around performances and the flashes continue with Adou Thiero. The latter brings athleticism and physicality you won’t find elsewhere on the roster, but he’s also dealing with a nagging back issue and is currently listed as day-to-day. Out of the rotation completely, even Jordan Burks returned to game action and made an impact vs. Illinois State, going for five points, two blocks and a rebound in 11 minutes.

Point being, finding clarity in the frontcourt has been a bit of a moving target. You know the four guards are going to play, as will Mitchell. From there, that group of Edwards, Bradshaw, Thiero, Onyenso and even Burks is up in the air. The cream will rise to the top as SEC play moves along, but who? Matchups will shift things, as will certain game situations, but finding some semblance of consistency is necessary.

Is Reed Sheppard’s efficiency sustainable?

Kentucky’s homegrown superstar is skyrocketing up the draft boards and making history through 12 games. Sheppard has posted the third-highest box plus/minus (15.3) of any freshman since 2008, behind only Zion Williamson (18.7) and Anthony Davis (16.7). And he’s averaging 58/56/90 splits while putting up 12.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.8 steals per game. You simply could not have dreamed of better all-around play in the non-conference.

And he did it against high-level competition. Against the Wildcats’ three top-10 opponents, Sheppard averaged 15.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.0 steals and 2.3 assists on 16-27 shooting (59.2%) and 9-15 from three (60.0%).

Look, we’ve never seen what No. 15 is doing in blue and white. He’s currently the school’s all-time career 3-point shooter with a minimum of 50 attempts by nine whole percentage points at 56.0%, Doron Lamb next up at 47.52% across two seasons. Sheppard is also on pace to shatter Rajon Rondo’s all-time single-season steals record of 87 — he’s trending toward 93 in the same number of games. A trip to the title game would give him 110 if he sticks with his current pace, which would slot him at No. 31 overall in career steals, tied with four-year star Tayshaun Prince.

Something has got to give, right? He can’t maintain this level of unprecedented efficiency the rest of the way, right? Well, nothing he’s done indicates he’s ready to hit a wall anytime soon. If anything, he’s ramping up.

Kentucky Wildcats freshman Reed Sheppard so far this year #NBADraft

First 6 Games:
→ 10.8 PTS, 3.7 REB, 3.5 AST, 3.2 STL
→ 66.7 / 66.7 / 100
→ 5.5 FGA, 3.5 3PA, 24.0 MIN

Last 6:
→ 14.2 PTS, 5.7 REB, 5.2 AST, 2.3 STL
→ 52.6 / 48.3 / 84.6
→ 9.5 FGA, 4.8 3PA, 29.0 MIN pic.twitter.com/Cij14UaTMu

— No Ceilings (@NoCeilingsNBA) January 5, 2024

But it’s name-brand opponents the rest of the way. We’ll find out pretty quickly if Sheppard’s historic start will close out as an all-time season.

How big is the gap between offense and defense?

Sheppard has been just one key piece of Kentucky’s unfathomable offensive production to open the season. As a unit, the Wildcats have the best field goal percentage (50.3%), second-best 3-point percentage (41.6%), second-most points per game (91.1), most assists (233) and fewest turnovers (113) of the entire John Calipari era in Lexington. They’ve scored 81 points in 11 of Kentucky’s first 12 games for the first time since 1995-96 — a national championship season.

But what about the defense? They’re currently allowing 41.3% shooting and 31.2% from three, good (bad?) for Nos. 103 and 108 nationally, respectively. That overall defensive field goal percentage is second-highest under Coach Cal, behind only 2018-19 (42.3%). The Cats rank No. 231 nationally in scoring defense, allowing 73.4 points per contest.

Kentucky has been good enough to outscore the competition thus far, but can that continue as SEC opponents look to muck things up and slow things down, forcing the Cats to make plays in the half-court? And can they rise to the occasion on the other end of the floor? They’ve got to find a middle ground. As long as the offense continues to produce in record-breaking ways, the defense can afford to be average. It just can’t be bad.