4-Point Play: One week from Kentucky's season opener

Kentucky guard Koby Brea shoots a three - Dr. Michael Huang, Kentucky Sports Radio

Exhibition games are almost cruel. You get just a taste of what’s to come without the games actually counting, a reminder that basketball season is here, but not completely here. The wait is almost over, though, as the countdown clock now reads one week until Kentucky‘s home opener against Wright State to officially tip off the Mark Pope era.

We’ve got plenty to pass the time until then, though, including a second and final exhibition battle vs. Minnesota State Mankato on Tuesday — plus some evening notes to get you ready for that matchup.

Let’s dig in, shall we?

Koby Brea projected as the No. 1 shooter in CBB

Evan Miyakawa has become college basketball’s go-to source for consumable analytics, releasing individual and team projections for every aspect of the game imaginable. A new one released Monday afternoon? Three-point shooting, a list of the top projected snipers going into the 2024-25 season.

And a familiar name sits atop the list by a comfortable margin.

Brea leads the way at 43.2 percent — nearly two percent higher than anyone else in the country — followed by Houston’s LJ Cryer and North Carolina’s Cade Tyson at 41.3 percent, Virginia’s Isaac McKneely at 40.9 percent and Minnesota’s Mike Mitchell at 40.6 percent.

Here are the top projected three-point shooters in college basketball this season at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax:

Kentucky's Koby Brea has a sizable lead on everyone else in the country. pic.twitter.com/CocraKBOxv
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) October 28, 2024

As for the rest of the Wildcats and their projections on the year, no one else is expected to join Brea in the 40-plus-percent club, but it’s still a strong shooting team from top to bottom. Kerr Kriisa sits at 37.8 percent, followed closely by Jaxson Robinson at 36.0 percent, then Andrew Carr at 34.8 percent, Travis Perry at 34.5 percent, Otega Oweh at 34.2 percent and Ansley Almonor at 34.0 percent. Lamont Butler at 33.2 percent, Collin Chandler at 33.0 percent, Brandon Garrison at 31.7 percent and Amari Williams at 31.5 percent round out the worst shooters on the team in terms of projected hit rates.

Here are all the shooting projections for Kentucky's roster: https://t.co/rKnMHJC5S0 pic.twitter.com/VEmIQK0rah
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) October 28, 2024

Sports Illustrated lists Kentucky sixth in the SEC, No. 22 overall

The Wildcats enter the preseason ranked No. 23 in the official AP and Coaches Polls, but some of the other national outlets continue to roll out their own rankings with the regular season just one week away.

The latest? Sports Illustrated, who was just a tad higher on Kentucky in its ranking of all 364 teams in college basketball, listing the Cats at No. 22 overall and No. 6 in the SEC.

“Kentucky is undergoing quite the identity transformation from John Calipari’s one-and-done NBA factory to Mark Pope’s more development-centric approach,” SI.com’s Kevin Sweeney wrote. “The Wildcats took a bevy of transfers to be able to compete in Pope’s first year, the headliner being sharpshooting wing Jaxson Robinson, who played for Pope at BYU. Between Robinson, Koby Brea, Kerr Kriisa and even forward Andrew Carr, the Wildcats have the shooting prowess to be really good on their best nights. But does this group have the top-end talent necessary to win at the level Big Blue Nation expects?”

Three Cats included in Bleacher Report mock draft

Who says Kentucky won’t be heavily represented in the draft moving forward under Coach Pope? Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman included not one, not two, but three Wildcats in his new two-round 2025 NBA Mock Draft.

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And the names might surprise you, namely the order in which they come off the board.

Up first? None other than Brandon Garrison with the No. 39 overall pick.

“Brandon Garrison was efficient at Oklahoma State, flashing an interesting mix of skills and strengths for a big with his disruptive defensive length, passing, finishing and capable touch,” Wasserman wrote. “He’ll now look to stand out on a Kentucky roster full of transfers who haven’t played together. Garrison’s game doesn’t scream scoring potential, but scouts could see a useful role player for the next level with his effectiveness inside, vision on post-ups and short rolls and shot-contesting.”

From there, it’s sharpshooter Koby Brea at No. 48 overall.

“Koby Brea will suit up with Kentucky after putting together a shooting profile difficult to match at Dayton. He shot 56.6 percent on standstill threes, 42.9 percent on movement threes and 42.0 percent on pull-ups threes. Brea hit 100 threes on 201 attempts—historic-type accuracy,” he added. “At 6’7″ wing with Brea’s shotmaking production, fluidity and height, he should have a chance to generate NBA conversation, particularly if he can approach last season’s efficiency against tougher SEC competition. There just won’t be margin for error thanks to Brea’s lack of rim pressure, creation, playmaking and defensive upside.”

And then to wrap up the group is Jaxson Robinson right behind at No. 49.

“Jaxson Robinson’s breakout at BYU drew enough NBA interest to earn him an NBA combine invite. He had some solid stretches in Chicago, too, mostly showing off his potential money-making shooting stroke,” Wasserman said. “At 6’6″, he shot over 42.0 percent on both spot-up and off-screen threes while occasionally flashing self-creation skill into jumpers and drives. He doesn’t offer much playmaking, rim pressure or athletic pop, so he’ll look more convincing to teams if he’s closer to 40.0 percent from deep than last year’s 35.4 percent.”

Minnesota State is a ‘great test’ for Kentucky

That’s for then, but what about the now? There is still one more test ahead for the Cats before they begin regular season action one week from today. Minnesota State is coming to town, a head-to-head battle inside Rupp Arena scheduled for Tuesday evening at 7 p.m. ET.

What is Kentucky expecting from the defending Division II national champions? Another opportunity to grow together as a team, for one.

“It’s just going in and trying to improve every single day. We are a new group and every day we’re continuing to grow,” Andrew Carr said Monday. “Tomorrow is another opportunity for that for us. We’re really excited to play against the best Division II team you possibly can for an exhibition game. We know they’re bringing back good, talented players. A little bit of a different style than Kentucky Wesleyan, as well, so for us it’ll be a great test and we’re super excited to go out there and play again.”