4-Point Play: Title odds, sleeper performers and defensive success

In three early tests with gradual increases in competition, Kentucky has aced all three to open the Mark Pope era. It started with a 71-point butt whoopin’ against Kentucky Wesleyan, followed by a 31-point win over Minnesota State, one that saw the Wildcats recover from an early slump to run away with things in the second half. That led to the most impressive performance of the bunch, a start to finish beatdown to give Pope his first win as head coach — a 41-point win for No. 41. Fitting, right?

Also, can we acknowledge this string of wins ending with one? What’s up with that — and can we keep the trend rolling? I’ll take a 51-point win over Bucknell and a 21-point win over Duke in the Champions Classic in the next week. We’ll even settle for 11 points in the latter if 21 is too much to ask for. One point is pushing it, but I suppose we can also have that conversation, if necessary.

OK, we’re getting off track. Time to get things back in the right direction tonight with some victory leftovers on 4-Point Play.

Kentucky ranked No. 13 in title odds

What’s the pulse of the college basketball world after doubling up on the 20-point spread with a 41-point win over Wright State? There has been a pretty substantial shift in betting odds coming out of it regarding the top national championship contenders.

According to Circa Sports — a proud sponsor of KSR’s Sources Say Podcast, might I add — Kentucky now sits at No. 13 overall in the list of early favorites to win the 2024-25 title at +3500. That’s behind only Duke (+800), UConn (+900), Gonzaga (+1000), Kansas (+1100), Alabama (+1200), Houston (+1200), North Carolina (+1700), Baylor (+2000), Iowa State (+2200), Arkansas (+2300), Arizona (+2500) and Auburn (+2500).

Entering the season picked to finish eighth in the SEC, there isn’t much to complain about when you’ve got the fourth-best odds in the conference to win the whole thing after a single game.

College Basketball 🏀🏆
2024-25 National Champion#FinalFour | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/jhokZigBtM

— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) November 5, 2024

Three top-10 defensive players in college basketball

Maybe a big reason for the recent optimism? The defensive promise the Wildcats have shown. We’ve known about the offense and shooting, but could they defend at an elite level?

Mark Pope believes he’s got three of the best individual defenders in college basketball. That should answer your question, at least from his perspective.

The topic was addressed when asked about Kentucky racking up 11 steals in the Wright State win with two players picking up three apiece and six total earning at least one. That led to 18 points off turnovers and 36 total in transition.

“Lamont Butler is pretty committed to getting three every single game. Otega — how good was Otega Oweh defensively today? My goodness, he was terrific,” Pope said of his starting backcourt. “He was terrific on the ball, he was terrific shooting gaps, he was terrific kind of weaving his way through traffic. Those two guys are — I mean, they’re a real issue. Those guys are pretty special.”

Those are just the perimeter pieces. Factor in Amari Williams‘ length and instincts in the frontcourt and you’re talking about three high-impact defenders on the floor together at any one time. Seeing them together has Pope’s gears turning wondering how he can help them wreak havoc even further.

“You think about Amari anchoring the middle and you have three of probably the top 10 defensive players in the country. We’ve got to figure out how to use them more,” Pope said.

Scheduling Wright State was intentional

Speaking of defense, did you wonder why Kentucky took on Wright State out of the Horizon League to open the season? It wasn’t a blind drawing out of a hat for Pope when building the schedule. Adding the Raiders was actually a calculated decision.

They finished last season ranked No. 1 in field goal percentage, fourth in scoring and ninth in 3-point percentage. Their defensive numbers were abysmal, sure, but the Wildcats weren’t looking to pad their offensive stats. Pope wanted to see his team get tested defensively against a good offense.

The result? 62 points allowed on 35 percent shooting and 18 percent from three with 12 turnovers compared to just eight turnovers.

“We were very intentional about how we scheduled and this was a team that we were excited about because we know that they’re potent offensively. For our guys to hold this team to 35 percent from the field is really, really important for us,” Pope said. “To hold this team to 62 points is really important, a team that averaged 83, 84 points a game last year. Those are good markers for us. Our defensive side of the ball is going to be massively important for this team.”

They passed the test. Now he wants to see more out of them.

“We have guys that are capable. We’re exploring how to use them a little bit more,” Pope added. “This was a good showing for our guys. We learned a lot, we collected a lot of data. I’m proud of the guys and how they played.”

“Ansley is going to be a huge part of this team.”

Oweh, Koby Brea, Butler and Williams were the headliners in the 41-point win, but how about a sleeper pick who deserves some praise for thriving in his role off the bench? Ansley Almonor, come on down.

The Fairleigh Dickinson transfer went for 11 points on 5-7 shooting and 1-3 from three with two rebounds, one assist and zero turnovers in 13 minutes. He wasn’t flashy and didn’t have any crazy highlight plays, but he kept his head down and went to work, doing exactly what was asked of him. Sometimes that’s all you need to separate a good team from a great one, guys willing to step up in secondary roles.

Pope singled out Almonor as a top contributor and someone who will continue to do the little things to win games throughout the season for Kentucky.

“I thought he was terrific tonight, right? Ansley can knock down some shots, man. He can do it really quick,” he said. “I thought he ran the floor great. And one of the interesting things — this game gets really simple, guys, when you break it down. He was extraordinary. He had two contested catches where he just had to win the catch. If the game just came down to, physically, who was going to win the catch? He won both of them, secured both of them, ended up finishing both at the rim.

“Simple things like that are really incredibly important. Ansley is going to be a huge part of this team.”

Need any financial advice? He’s got you covered there, too.

“He’s one of the smartest guys on the team — he’s a finance major. If anybody needs to do some investing, he’s going to open up his own shop here and he’s going to be great for Kentucky basketball.”