The 5 Worst Ways to Pick a Bracket

You’ve heard the expression, “there’s more than one way to skin a cat.” As idioms go, it’s not my favorite. I happen to like cats, and frankly, nobody needs that image in their mind. But appalling origins aside, it’s a useful way of describing a task that can be approached from multiple angles. And as a life-long March Madness junkie, I can think of no better example than picking an NCAA Tournament bracket.

Some say it’s all about the numbers: offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, A + B equals 70% probability of a given outcome. Others say it’s a complete and total crapshoot. I believe the truth is somewhere in the middle. So what is the best approach for building a can’t-fail method to tackle the madness?

Trick question! There isn’t one. If you’ve ever taken part in a bracket pool before, you know very well that your picks are going to flop. The only way of winning — if you can call it that — is to flop the least. So rather than pretend there’s a surefire path to success, let’s start here: with the five worst ways to approach your picks.

#5: The Homer Bracket

One of the biggest pitfalls we can make as fans is getting caught up in our own innate biases. When you watch one team all year and everyone else sparingly, your opinion of that team is likely to be higher than most — or lower, if you’re the pessimistic type (see: any KSR comment section). Again, the truth is likely in the middle.

The Homer Bracket is the unfortunate product of these biases. Say you’ve got the ‘Cats going all the way as a 6-seed; it’s possible, but do you really want to put all your eggs in that basket? Or worse, they’re actually good (like, y’know, this year) and you have them bowing out in Round 2 because you think their defense isn’t up to snuff. Even if it happens, do you really want to be right? Where’s the fun in that?

Personally, I go with this policy: if my favorite team is a two-seed or better and I don’t see any terrible matchups in their path, I go for it. After all, I’d rather ride with my team and be wrong than underestimate them and wind up being the one UK fan who didn’t predict their Final Four run.

But please, for your own sake — keep it within reason.

#4: Too Many Upsets

Let me make one thing clear: I am all for picking upsets. When it comes to scoring brackets, I’m partial to the upset points mode that rewards bold picks with bonus points. But with that said, you can’t go too crazy with the underdogs. Pick too many upsets early and you’ll wind up with a Sweet 16 field full of double-digit seeds. And where can you realistically go from there?

Don’t forget that 11 of the last 14 NCAA champions have been 1-seeds, including the last four in a row. Outside of seven-seed UConn in 2014, the last time a sub-three seed won the tourney was in 1997. Since the NCAA started seeding all teams in 1979, 69 of the 168 teams to make the Final Four have been 1’s (41%). Throw in 2-seeds, and that number climbs to 61%. So on average, at least 2-3 top-two seeds make the final weekend every year. They’re highly ranked for a reason!

In last year’s bracket preview, I advised picking five to seven true upsets in the first round (not counting 8/9 matchups) — or six, if you’re looking for a rule of thumb. I stand by that. Keep it spicy, but don’t get carried away.

#3: The Mascot Bracket

If you’re going to go with an outrageous strategy for making your picks, this is my personal favorite. I love it so much I made a whole post about it last year. But if you’re interested in competing, this is not the way to go.

The Mascot Bracket is simple enough: in each matchup, you pick the school with the coolest, most unique, or otherwise badass-iest mascot. For example: say the Gonzaga Bulldogs are facing off with the Delaware Fightin Blue Hens. The Hens are moving on, it’s no contest! But now you’ve got the best team in the country bowing out in the first round. You see the problem?

In my book, the clubhouse favorite for Mascot Bracket Champion going in is the Richmond Spiders, who punched their ticket on Sunday. Spiders are cool as f***. That’s all I have to say about that.

RICHMOND TAKES THE A-10! 🕷🎟@SpiderMBB rallies to take down Davidson and is heading to #MarchMadness! pic.twitter.com/ELH0pvD5TB

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 13, 2022

#2: The Coin Flip

There’s only one thing more chaotic than the mascot bracket, and that’s the Coin Flip Bracket. Surely you’ve tried it: who can resist the temptation of getting out a nickel and filling out the field based solely on Lady Luck’s favor? By choosing this method, you’re eliminating the element of choice entirely — and thus taking yourself off the hook for any preposterous outcomes. It’s almost like you’re leaving things up to a Higher Power.

Unfortunately, one choice still rests on your shoulders: the decision to go with this outlandishly terrible strategy. Trust me, it’s all fun and games until you’ve got 15-seed CSU-Fullerton locked in a Final Four showdown with Wyoming. It’s only a matter of time before you become the object of ridicule around the office, you lose your job, and your spouse leaves you for a younger, more accomplished bracketologist. DON’T LET THIS BE YOU!

#1: The Chalk Bracket

Say what you will about each of the other options listed here, but at least they’re trying to be interesting. The most obnoxious way to fill out a bracket, hands down, is to go with all chalk. In every bracket pool, there’s at least one person who just picks the favorites — and every time, that person is the worst.

Make no mistake, the chalk-rocker will do fine in the standings. It’s a surefire middle-of-the-pack floor, depending on your scoring rules. But there’s no pride in those picks. You’ll never get to feel the rush of adrenaline that comes from correctly identifying that 4-13 upset and riding with them to the final buzzer. You’ll never get to rub it in everyone’s faces when your longshot dream comes true. All you have is a handful of obvious picks and a mountain of stock in overrated baloney.

So at the end of the day, screw what the numbers say. Go with your gut. And most importantly, just have fun.

(Oh, and pick Duke to lose early. You’ll be glad you did.)