Numbers say one of these 6 horses will win the Kentucky Derby

Three weeks from now KSR will be amongst the people in the middle of the infield at the Kentucky Oaks. Aside from tomorrow’s Lexington Stakes, the Kentucky Derby prep race circuit is complete. Injuries and moves to other races will shape the field in the days to come, but we now have a clearer picture of who will line up in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

There are dozens of different ways to handicap this race. As one friend put it recently, “With 20 horses banging into each other, anything can happen.” It’s true, but it’s not a complete crapshoot.

Two specific measurements narrow the field of potential winners from 20 to six. The first you can easily find in your program is the speed rating in its most recent race. Of the last 23 Kentucky Derby winners, 18 posted a Brisnet speed rating of 100 or more in their final prep race. Nine horses achieved that feat this spring.

To narrow the list of candidates one step further, let’s use a theory created by Jennie Rees, a longtime turf writer that spent most of her career with the Courier-Journal. It’s called “Final Fractions Theory.” It answers the question: how fast did the horse finish their most recent race?

In order to meet the mark, horses must finish their final furlong in 13.0 seconds or less, or their final three furlongs in 38.0 or less. According to Horse Racing Nation, Rich Strike did that last year by finishing the Jeff Ruby’s Steaks in 36.2 seconds. Over the last 34 years, 29 Kentucky Derby winners met at least one of the Final Fraction Theory’s criteria.

By combining the two, we can see which 3-year-old is capable of finishing the 1 1/4 miles race, the farthest any of them have ever raced in their career. These are the six horses that meet the standards of the Final Fractions Theory and posted a Brisnet of 100 or better in their final prep race.

Forte — Florida Derby winner

Practical Move — Santa Anita Derby winner

Tapit Trice — Blue Grass Stakes winner

Verifying — Blue Grass Stakes Runner-Up

Two Phil’s — Jeff Ruby Steaks winner

Mandarin Hero — Santa Anita Derby Runner-Up

If you’d like to narrow the list of candidates even further, since 2012 three Santa Anita Derby winners and four Florida Derby winners have worn the garland of roses on the first Saturday in May.

Picking a Kentucky Derby winner is an inexact science. However, when handicapping the race don’t be so quick to throw out the six horses that close better than the rest of their 3-year-old peers.

For more information on how the possible Kentucky Derby entrants finished in their most recent races, check out Horse Racing Nation.