Arkansas is struggling to win -- and cover -- against power conference teams

by:Adam Luckett•about 10 hours•

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Mar 13, 2024; Nashville, TN, USA; The Arkansas Razorbacks mascot runs with a flag at the team takes the court before the game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

The opening spread for Kentucky and Arkansas dropped on Thursday night. For the second consecutive meeting at Rupp Arena, the Wildcats are laying double-digits. I’m not sure anyone saw that coming when John Calipari surprisingly left Lexington for Fayetteville in April.

But there is likely a reason this spread is so high.

Kentucky is currently laying 10.5 points against an Arkansas team that is struggling to win and cover against power conference teams. The Hogs are 1-6 against-the-spread (ATS) in SEC play and 2-9 ATS against power conference foes.

Date	Game	Spread	Result	Overall/ATS Record
Nov. 9	Arkansas vs. Baylor (Dallas)	Hogs (+4.5)	Bears 72, Hogs 67	0-1 (0-1)
Nov. 28	Arkansas vs. Illinois (Kansas City)	Hogs (+4)	Illini 90, Hogs 77	0-2 (0-2)
Dec. 3	Arkansas at Miami	Hogs (-4)	Hogs 76, Canes 73	1-2 (0-3)
Dec. 10	Arkansas vs. Michigan (New York City)	Hogs (+3.5)	Hogs 89, Wolverines 87	2-2 (1-3)
Jan. 4	Arkansas at Tennessee	Hogs (+11.5)	Vols 76, Hogs 52	2-3 (1-4)
Jan. 8	Arkansas vs. Ole Miss	Hogs (-3.5)	Rebels 73, Hogs 66	2-4 (1-5)
Jan. 11	Arkansas vs. Florida	Hogs (+4)	Gators 71, Hogs 63	2-5 (1-6)
Jan. 14	Arkansas at LSU	Hogs (-1)	Tigers 78, Hogs 74	2-6 (1-7)
Jan. 18	Arkansas at Missouri	Hogs (+5.5)	Tigers 83, Hogs 65	2-7 (1-8)
Jan. 22	Arkansas vs. Georgia	Hogs (+1)	Hogs 68, Dawgs 65	3-7 (2-8)
Jan. 25	Arkansas vs. Oklahoma	Hogs (-3.5)	Sooners 65, Hogs 62	3-8 (2-9)

In his first season, Calipari’s Arkansas team is 3-8 outright in power conference games with a 2-9 ATS record. Saturday will mark the second time the Razorbacks have been a double-digit dog. Tennessee covered that an 11.5-point spread with relative ease in a 24-point win on Rocky Top.

Scoring (No. 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom) has been a massive issue for Arkansas. That has led to an 8-3 under record against power conference foes. Six unders have cashed in seven SEC games involving the Razorbacks.

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Kentucky has been cash all season in ranked vs. ranked matchups, but is 1-4 outright and 0-5 ATS against power conference teams not ranked. Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, and Vanderbilt all beat Kentucky outright but none of those games occurred at Rupp Arena.

Can the Cats finally get a cover against an unranked power conference team? Some trends point in their direction, but something will have to give in Rupp Arena.