Assessing Kentucky's final four regular season games

With just four regular-season games left on the schedule, Kentucky men’s basketball is trending in the right direction. The Wildcats have won back-to-back games — both Quad 1 victories — and appear to be firmly back in the NCAA Tournament picture. But this final stretch will have major implications regarding Kentucky’s (hopeful) postseason seeding: on the road against Florida, at home against Auburn, at home against Vanderbilt, then on the road against Arkansas to close things out.

Three of the four remaining games for UK will be Quad 1 opportunities (Vanderbilt is currently Quad 3 but getting hot at the right time), so it won’t be smooth sailing. Looking at the projections crafted by BartTorvik and KenPom, Kentucky is expected to finish 2-2 with both losses coming away from home to Florida (which is now without leading scorer Colin Castleton due to injury) and Arkansas (which recently added five-star freshman Nick Smith Jr. back into the lineup).

Would a 2-2 mark be enough to keep Kentucky on the right side of the bubble and have fans feeling good heading into March? Or would a 3-1 record at minimum be required to keep the vibes and confidence high? Let’s take a deeper look at what lies ahead for the ‘Cats and predict how the season might end heading into the SEC Tournament.

Taking care of the Gators

First up is Florida, which is set to host the ‘Cats this Wednesday in Gainesville. The biggest news out of this matchup is the absence of Colin Castleton, who ate up Kentucky during the first battle between these two teams earlier in the season. Even though UK won that game 72-67, Castleton feasted on the Wildcats’ frontcourt, pouring in 25 points on 9-16 shooting to go along with eight rebounds, five assists, and three blocks. The 6-foot-11 center has been ruled out indefinitely after breaking his hand last week against Ole Miss.

Not only is this a huge loss for Florida, which needs plenty to break right in order to sneak into the NCAA Tournament at this stage, but it’s an even bigger gain for Kentucky. Why? Because Oscar Tshiebwe, who has struggled against Castleton in previous matchups and against taller centers in general, will have a free pass to dominate once again. In Florida’s first game without Castleton on the floor, Arkansas won by 19 as 6-foot-9 senior Jalen Graham popped off for a career-high 26 points. The Gators’ backup center, 6-foot-11, 300-pound Jason Jitoboh, was thrust into a season-high 24 minutes, finishing with just four points and two rebounds. Florida’s biggest advantage against a team like Kentucky has vanished with one poorly timed injury.

Florida now has only one double-digit scorer during SEC play outside of Castleton, and that would be Riley Kugel with his 10.0 points per game. With Kentucky being just the second team to face the Gators since Castleton went down, it could be a struggle for Florida to find a way around missing its star player, especially with Tshiebwe lurking down low.

Prediction: Kentucky wins by 10 or more

Don’t let Auburn get rolling again

After a hot start to the season, Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Tigers have cooled considerably over the last few weeks. Auburn started the year 16-3 with a 6-1 mark in the SEC but has since lost six of its last eight games. The Tigers are still projected to make the postseason as of right now (ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has them as an eight-seed) but with a trio of tough games left to close out the season — at Kentucky, at Alabama, vs. Tennessee — Pearl’s group could be playing for its tournament lives once the calendar turns over to March.

With Kentucky being the first of those three, it’ll be especially important for the ‘Cats to keep Auburn from gaining momentum. It’ll matter even more when looking at SEC Tournament seeding. UK is currently among the top four teams that would earn a double-bye with a 9-5 conference mark, but Auburn is right there knocking on the door at 8-6.

The key for Kentucky will be to keep Auburn off the 3-point line. Over its last eight outings, the Tigers have gone 2-1 when shooting at least 36 percent from behind the arc and a winless 0-5 when going under that mark. Lately, Auburn hasn’t proven that it can score enough to beat good teams. Yes, recent losses have come against Texas A&M twice, Tennessee on the road, and a previously No. 1-ranked Alabama — all impressive opponents clearly in the NCAA Tournament picture — but considering the schedule doesn’t get any easier down the stretch, it’s not exactly a vote of confidence that Auburn can turn it around with so many competitive teams ahead.

Prediction: Kentucky wins by five or more

Stop Vanderbilt from staying hot

Unlike Auburn, Vanderbilt is rattling off huge wins as of late. Now in year four as head coach, Jerry Stackhouse has the Commodores playing its best basketball since he arrived in Nashville. Vandy has won five in a row, including big-time home wins over Tennessee and Auburn (both of which are now slipping, so keep that in mind). Victories over Ole Miss and South Carolina — two of the SEC’s three worst teams — help boost the on-paper appearance of this win streak even more, but the ‘Dores are playing legitimately good basketball and have been closing out games with impressive poise and efficiency.

The real test for Kentucky will come in the paint once again as Vanderbilt’s seven-foot center, Liam Robbins, is on a heater as of late. During his team’s five-game win streak, the fifth-year college player is averaging 22.6 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 3.6 blocks per outing while shooting an insane (and likely unsustainable) 11-17 from long range. He’s the closest thing to Castleton left on UK’s schedule.

Robbins is also getting to the line more than 10 times per contest during this stretch, which will put plenty of pressure on Kentucky’s frontcourt, particularly with Tshiebwe, who isn’t necessarily foul-prone but has shown a tendency to plant himself on the bench with early fouls. Tshiebwe is averaging 4.0 fouls per game over his last five, even fouling out against Florida when going up against a healthy Castleton.

As a team, Vanderbilt is shooting 46-125 from distance over the last five contests, which is only a modest 34.4 percent, but they’ve attempted at least 18 in all of them, including 37 in the win over South Carolina, which tied a season-high. Vandy is also getting to the free-throw line at will, averaging 22.2 shots from the charity stripe during the current win streak while connecting on 68.5 percent of those looks. Stackhouse wants his team to shoot at will and one hot night is all it takes to pull off an upset.

Prediction: Kentucky wins by one or two possessions

Closing out strong against Arkansas

The regular-season finale against Arkansas *should* be the toughest test remaining. The Razorbacks got the better of Kentucky at Rupp Arena in the first matchup behind an impressive second-half offensive performance. In round two at home, Nick Smith Jr. will be part of the lineup after returning on Feb. 11. Prior to that, the five-star freshman and projected NBA lottery pick hadn’t played since mid-December due to an injury. But he’s back now and slowly working into form. Most recently, he scored 10 points on 4-12 shooting in 32 minutes during a win over Florida.

But even without Smith Jr., Arkansas lit up Kentucky in the first matchup earlier this month. 88 points from the UK defense was tied for the second-most allowed all season. The backcourt trio of Anthony Black, Rick Council, and Davonte Davis is liable to explode for a big scoring night at any given moment. Those three combined for 54 points in the first meeting. The deciding factor in this one could come down to whether or not Kentucky has one/both of Savhir Wheeler and CJ Fredrick back in the guard rotation to help balance out the backcourt matchups.

The Hogs probably need another big win or two to solidify its spot in the NCAA Tournament. Taking on Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky to close out the season will provide enough opportunities to make that happen. However, Alabama and Tennessee will come on the road. If Arkansas has to beat Kentucky at home in the regular season finale in order to make the tournament, desperation will play a role.

Prediction: Kentucky losses by seven or fewer