Record setting QB Bailey Zappe looks to breakthrough at NFL Combine

Alabama’s Bryce Young won the Heisman Trophy in 2021, but no quarterback in college football had a better season than WKU’s Bailey Zappe.

The FCS transfer spent just one season with the Tops, but the six-foot, 213-pound quarterback set single-season FBS records for passing yards (5,967) and passing touchdowns (62). Playing for newly hired offensive coordinator Zach Kittley, Zappe helped lead Tyson Helton’s program to a 9-5 season with a huge win over Appalachian State in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Zappe’s overall numbers were just unbelievably ridiculous.

The quarterback threw the ball 49.1 times per game, completed 69.3 percent of those throws, and averaged 8.7 yards per attempt. Zappe posted a success rate of 53.6 percent, and his 46.9 percent first down/touchdown rate was one of the best in the country. Zappe did all of this while avoiding negative plays at a high clip with a 2.3 percent sack rate, 11.5 percent PBU/interception rate.

Despite all of the overwhelming data, there are real concerns about Zappe as a draft prospect. Kittley — who is now the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech — was a student assistant and later graduate assistant under Kliff Kingsbury from 2013-17 at Texas Tech. In Lubbock, Kittley learned the Air Raid offense and installed a version of it at WKU last season after getting his feet wet at FCS Houston Baptist.

The numbers were absurd, but there are some still with doubts about how that system translates to the NFL even with the league adopting a ton of the passing concepts used by Mike Leach and all the branches of his coaching tree.

Zappe doesn’t think his experience in this version of the Air Raid offense will hurt him.

“There’s kind of a misconception about the Air Raid — kind of the Air Raid tree that we ran with Coach [Zach] Kittley. We did a lot of stuff that a lot of people do in the NFL and other offenses in college,” Zappe told KSR at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis. “We did a lot of pure progression stuff. He gave me a lot of opportunities, checking in and out of plays, read defenses, pure progressions. Some of the stuff that will carry over to the NFL — we did a lot of that stuff.

As of now, Zappe is expected to be a late Day 3 pick and could even fall into undrafted territory. The size isn’t great and operating in a true dropback passing offense is an unknown. The prospect had an up-and-down week at the Senior Bowl but gets another chance to get in front of scouts this week at the NFL Combine where he will look to learn a new brand of football.

“I love the game of football, I love learning. I’m excited to be able to learn those types of offenses,” said Zappe.

Quarterbacks come in all sizes but traits matter

Despite being on the shorter side, Kyler Murray was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft following a monster season at Oklahoma. Murray played in a version of the Air Raid offense for Lincoln Riley, but that pick proved that the NFL was officially more open-minded to what big-time quarterbacks looked like.

There are a bunch of shapes and sizes, but traits matter significantly.

With the advancement of the pass rush, the ability to make plays off-script is one of the best qualities a quarterback can have. After that, arm strength is highly valuable to fit the ball into small windows and stretch defenses vertically. However, processing and accuracy remain at the top of the charts.

Today’s passer must get the ball out on time and deliver the football with accuracy. To do that, quarterbacks must be able to recognize defenses and know the answers that offensive plays have built in to counter specific defensive looks.

All of those traits can add up to different-looking quarterbacks. Offensive coaches are taking schemes from the college game that help ease decision-making, but passers must still process defenses and deliver the ball on time. When the play breaks down, having the ability to create something out of nothing is very attractive to NFL organizations.

Bailey Zappe processed and showed ball placement at WKU, but there are still questions about scheme fit and if the Air Raid product can make reaction plays. Meanwhile, a prospect like Liberty’s Malik Willis is very intriguing due to his secondary playmaking potential combined with big-time arm strength. Even if the accuracy did lack at times.

As the draft community looks for the best player in this draft, expect those high-quality traits to win out more often than not.