BBNBA Season in Review: Tyler Herro

(@MiamiHEAT)

I’m here to say one thing: the Tyler Herro slander is overblown.

The second-year Wildcat arrived like a comet to the national stage last fall when he served a starting role on the Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat and scored 37 points in one game to give his squad a 3-1 lead in the Conference Finals. But did he go backwards or forwards in year two?

This Past Season

The rookie who dropped 37 vs. the Celtics and scorched the Brooklyn Nets from three along with Jae Crowder and Duncan Robinson in Orlando was out of the ordinary. Tyler Herro wasn’t that guy for most of the regular season in 2019-20. He averaged 13.5 points a game on 42.9% shooting. For a rookie, he was exciting, but as an NBA shooting guard who struggled with defense, his numbers weren’t remarkable.

So, coming off a decent rookie regular season and a much more recent and unbelievable showing in the bubble, Herro was expected to take a star’s leap when his first-year numbers suggested he was probably a few years away from that progression.

In 2020-21, the Heat were worse as some of their veteran pieces left and the team got off to a miserable start partially due to a high number of COVID-related absences. Guys like Duncan Robinson, Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala took steps back as the entire team never reached the ceiling they had the previous fall.

Tyler Herro shouldered some of the blame. He wasn’t terrific in his second year, but actually, he improved his numbers across the board except for one aspect of the game. He jumped from 13.5 to 15.1 points per game, he rebounded and assisted more often and he shot one percent better from the floor.

The only stat that dipped was his three-point shooting, slightly. He shot a hair under 39% in 2020 and was right at 36% in 2021. Three percentage points sound like a lot, but the difference came down to a grand total of nine more missed shots.

In 2020, he shot 116/298 from three. And in 2021, he shot 107/297. In the grand scheme, it’s a minor step back.

Looking ahead

Even though he didn’t get worse, should Herro have taken a bigger leap in year two? Probably so. Year two progressions are so difficult to track, though. Among today’s stars in the NBA, some elevated themselves to immediate star status by their second year — like a Luka Doncic or Ja Morant for example. But other guys like Nikola Jokic or Jaylen Brown began their careers as role players and developed into high-level scorers and all-around players.

Tyler’s season was far from a disaster, and he certainly didn’t get worse. He also didn’t take a significant second-year leap. He waded water, even though he says he can’t swim. Herro played the same role he did on last season’s team but scored slightly more while gaining some experience as the team went backward.

To put this into perspective, despite having what some would call a “down” second year, Tyler Herro was ninth among players 21 or younger in scoring per game this season in the NBA. And five of the other seven were top-three picks in the last two drafts.

15 points per game as a second-year, 21-year-old playing through a pandemic season is great. Herro’s expectation proceeds his experience and talent right now, but the future is still incredibly bright for the Bucket.

A KSR commenter said earlier this season that “the Bucket was empty” and I thought it was witty. Well, I expect the Bucket is full next October after a full offseason behind him and an exciting third year ahead.