Big Blue Bahamas: Three Evaluation Points

The Big Blue Bahamas tour is officially underway. Kentucky landed on Monday, had an open practice on Tuesday, and will play four games through the rest of the week. While it isn’t likely to be SEC-level competition, the opportunity to compete against someone else always brings unique challenges.

The Kentucky Wildcats will face-off with the Dominican Republic National Select Team on Wednesday night followed by a game against Monterey Tech (Mexico) on Thursday evening. Then, after taking Friday off, the ‘Cats take on Carleton University (Canada) on Saturday and the Bahamas National Team on Sunday.

Playing live competition against a real opponent will give Kentucky fans and coaches alike the first opportunity to evaluate the 2022-2023 Wildcats. However, it is important to temper expectations and not make sweeping judgements. Trips like this can produce some fool’s gold. The ‘Cats will likely be the most talented team on the Big Blue Bahamas trip, and it might not even be close. There are still some tangible evaluation points to look for over these four games though. Let’s take a look at what we should be watching for.

Shot-Making

To be a successful basketball team in this day and age you have to be able to shoot the basketball. Shooting travels and is one skill you can evaluate against any competition level. Obviously, better defenders can contest more shots and make things harder on the offense. However, when you are open you still need to put the ball in the basket.

Coach Calipari will look to plug CJ Fredrick right into that Kellan Grady role from last season. Grady finished the year shooting 41.5% from deep on 2.6 made three-pointers per game. That is an outstanding clip, but history tells us that Fredrick is even better. Over the course of 52 games at Iowa, the 6’3” sharpshooter made 76 of 154 attempts. For those keeping track at home that is 46.6%.

Alongside Fredrick, who will likely see relatively limited playing time as he returns from his injury rehab, guards Antonio Reeves and Cason Wallace will be counted upon to knock in outside shots. Reeves is a career 34.8% three-point shooter but is coming off by far the best shooting season of his career. As a junior at Illinois State, he shot 39% on 195 attempts. The 6’6” guard won’t shoot that sort of volume at Kentucky, but that percentage would really help the ‘Cats. As for Wallace, proving his three-point shooting ability will go a long way to determining how high he can climb on NBA Draft boards.

Lastly, will Sahvir Wheeler, Jacob Toppin, Daimion Collins, or even Oscar Tshiebwe actually make three-point shots this season? If even one of those guys can truly stretch the floor it will be huge for Kentucky. The Big Blue Bahamas trip will be the first proving ground for these four Wildcats.

Executing Against a Scouting Report

The Kentucky Wildcats know next to nothing about their Big Blue Bahamas opponents. However, their opponents will know a lot about them. Going against a scouting report that is designed to take away your strengths is why you play preseason games. Even if the competition level is lesser than what you’ll see in the meat of your schedule, it still is helpful to go against a group with a real plan.

Watching the 5-star freshmen Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston will be especially worthwhile. Though both of them played at a high level in high school, the scouting still doesn’t compare to the college game. These teams in the Bahamas may not have a full-fledged scouting report, but they will certainly have a plan on how they want to guard the ‘Cats. Watching Wallace and Livingston operate against grown men will give us a first glimpse at how their transition to the college game will go.

There are three specific areas that will be telling when breaking down these four games.

First, how does Oscar Tshiebwe handle the National Player of the Year target on his back? Starting in the Bahamas, opponents are going to do their best to not let Tshiebwe beat them. Has he become a better passer? Does he have an expanded array of back-to-the-basket post moves? We can start to answer some of those questions this week.

Secondly, can Sahvir Wheeler keep the defense honest? Too much has been made about his three-point shooting percentage to end SEC play. The volume is far too low for that to matter. Teams are still going to go under the ballscreens and handoffs and play back off of him. That can really clog things up offensively. Wheeler will need to prove himself as an improved shooter if he wants to truly be one of the best point guards in the country as a senior.

Lastly, is Jacob Toppin actually ready to make a leap? The glimpses are there and have been there for a while. His shooting stroke is looking good and the elite athleticism will be a separating factor. However, in game situations, he tends to get sped up and make rushed decisions. Bad shots, bad passes, and too much dribbling come when you are sped up. For Toppin to be an All-SEC caliber player he will have to prove in game situations that things have slowed down for him.

Defensive Fundamentals

Coach Calipari has been pretty outspoken about what he thinks this Kentucky Wildcats team can bring on the defensive end. The length and athleticism of this group will allow them to have some margin for error. However, the Big Blue Bahamas trip will serve as a barometer for where guys are at in terms of their fundamentals.

If any of the ‘Cats, especially the younger guys, struggle to stay in front of the ball in these games it doesn’t bode well for having success against a higher level of competition. Cason Wallace has been evaluated as a potentially elite defender. He certainly has the physical tools to make that a reality. Playing against veteran, professional-level men will be the perfect measuring stick for how far along he is. The same can be said for Chris Livingston who also comes in with physical tools well beyond his years.

Watching the defensive rotations, closeouts, and communication will provide some tangible takeaways over the course of this week. How many points the opposing team scores or how many three-pointers Kentucky gives up won’t tell fans nearly as much as the nuances will.

What Does All This Mean?

Getting to play games in August is a huge luxury for this Kentucky Wildcats team. History has shown that trips like this can be a precursor to a successful season. However, while the experience is fun for fans, players, and coaches alike, it is important to try to not have too many sweeping takeaways from these four games. The ‘Cats will have little to no scouting report on their opponents. Players are going to play essentially equal playing time. Coach Calipari isn’t even coaching the games. The games are valuable, but the information we try and glean can be misleading. So, let’s sit back, relax, and enjoy the Big Blue Bahamas trip. Kentucky Basketball is BACK!