Bio Blast: Auburn Tigers

Kentucky is reeling (3-4, 1-4) after another loss as this season is quickly getting away from Mark Stoops and his football team. The Wildcats are now looking to avoid the program’s first winless SEC season at home since 2013. Kentucky will be hosting a former SEC West program with similar issues.

Auburn (2-5, 0-4) is fresh off three consecutive losing seasons, and a fourth one seems on the way. Hugh Freeze is off to an 8-12 (3-9) start at a program with high expectations. Things are off to a bad start in year two, and pressure is beginning to ramp up on the Plains after an 8-13 start to his tenure. The Tigers will look to get things flipped on the road after starting the season 0-5 against power conference foes with three losses in one-possession games.

Both teams are desperate for a win in the first meeting of this SEC series since 2020. That creates quite a unique matchup in Week 9.

KSR’s Bio Blast is taking our first big look at Kentucky’s sixth conference game in 2024.

Massive turnover issues

When digging into the offensive numbers, it becomes clear that Auburn is an improved offensive team that can consistently move the football. Starting quarterback Payton Throne is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt and trails only Jaxson Dart in the SEC with 11 completions of 40-plus yards. The Tigers are No. 16 nationally in yards per dropback (8.36). On the ground, Auburn enters Week 9 ranked No. 22 in rushing success rate (46.3%). Starting tailback Jarquez Hunter is on pace to finish the regular season with 1,003 yards and should be viewed as one of the best tailbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft class.

Auburn has an efficient rushing attack and an explosive passing game. Why does this offense currently rank No. 109 nationally in points per drive (1.64)? Red zone inefficiency (No. 99 in red zone touchdown percentage) hasn’t helped, but turnovers have been this team’s biggest issue.

The Tigers enter this game with a minus-10 turnover margin, which is tied with TCU for the worst mark in power conference football. Auburn’s offense has 16 giveaways. Only East Carolina (who just fired their head coach) and Temple (who might be making a coaching change at the end of the season) have worse numbers. Ball security is a massive issue for this team.

Auburn lost a one-possession game to California due to a minus-five in the turnover column. A minus-three finish versus Arkansas certainly didn’t help. A late fourth quarter Thorne interception turned a win against Oklahoma into a home loss.

That just happened. @KipLewis9 | #OUDNA pic.twitter.com/xmmZmYgoma

— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) September 28, 2024

You cannot tell the story of Auburn’s season without discussing turnovers.

Solid but not great defense

Kentucky faced some tough challenges to begin SEC play. South Carolina, Georgia, and Ole Miss all have bonafide top-25 defenses. Vanderbilt and Florida were not that. Auburn is more Vanderbilt or Florida than the top three.

Under new defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, Auburn is not specifically great in any one area, but this group also doesn’t have a true weakness.

• Points Per Drive: 21.3 (No. 65 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 4.95 (No. 28 overall)
• Success Rate: 38.2% (No. 42 overall)
• EPA/play: -0.02 (No. 60 overall)

Auburn has a strong pass rush led by edge rushers Keldric Faulk (five sacks on 27 pressures) and Jalen McLeod (five sacks on 17 pressures). The run defense has only allowed more than 150 yards twice this season, and the pass defense has mostly been solid with Carson Beck being the only quarterback to carve up this secondary (8.3 yards per attempt on 29 passes).

The defense is not why this team is 0-3 in one-possession games, but this won’t be one of the 4-5 best units Kentucky’s offense will see this season.

Playmakers at wide receiver

Hugh Freeze has made a concerted effort to rebuild Auburn’s roster through blue-chip high school recruiting and by only meeting certain needs in the transfer portal. Both of those have come to fruition in the wide receiver room.

Auburn has a ton of young talent and transfers working together to help build this explosive passing game.

Penn State transfer KeAndre Lambert-Smith leads the team in targets (41), receptions (26), receiving yards (526), and receiving touchdowns (6) on over 20 yards per reception. Top-200 recruit Malcolm Simmons is second on the team in receptions (22) as a true freshman. Five-star true freshman Cam Coleman is averaging 25.9 yards per reception. Georgia State transfer Robert Lewis has 13 receptions for 133 yards.

Auburn truly has one of the most talented wide receiver units in college football. That could become a scary matchup for Kentucky one week after the Wildcats gave up numerous vertical completions against Florida.