Bio Blast: Florida Gators

Kentucky is fresh off a loss for a third time in the 2024 season. At 3-3 (1-3), the season could quickly spiral with another defeat. The Wildcats are facing some pressure to deliver in Week 8 after suffering another one-possession loss at home.

Florida (3-3, 1-2) is also facing some pressure as hot seat chatter continues to surround Billy Napier‘s third team in Gainesville. Is the latest game in the Kentucky-Florida series a swing game? It certainly feels like it when you consider that each team has multiple remaining games against ranked conference foes.

Both sides need a win. That could give us some desperation football in The Swamp on Saturday night. KSR’s Bio Blast is taking a look at what Florida will be bringing into this SEC matchup that could create some high anxiety levels at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

The future starts now at quarterback

Billy Napier’s biggest recruiting win during his tenure at Florida occurred when the Gators landed five-star prospect DJ Lagway in the 2024 recruiting cycle. The Texas native was the National Gatorade Player of the Year in 2023 after throwing for 4,604 yards and 58 touchdowns last season. As a true freshman, Lagway has been used as a situational quarterback but that will change on Saturday.

Starter Graham Mertz tore his ACL in the overtime loss to Tennessee last weekend and is now out for the season. That means Florida fans are getting their wish and will get a large sample size of Billy Napier’s prized recruit. Lagway threw for 456 yards in a Week 2 start against Samford but the passing results have been middling against every power conference defense to this point for the talented young player.

• Miami: 3-of-6, 31 yards, 5.2 yards per attempt, 0 sacks, 50% success rate, -0.38 EPA/play
• Texas A&M: 6-of-13, 54 yards, 4.2 yards per attempt, 2 sacks, 33.3% success rate, -0.14 EPA/play
• Mississippi State: 7-of-7, 76 yards, 10.9 yards per attempt, 0 sacks, 85.7% success rate, 0.53 EPA/play
• UCF: 4-of-4, 50 yards, 12.5 yards per attempt, 0 sacks, 50% success rate, 0.17 EPA/play
• Tennessee: 9-of-17, 98 yards, 5.8 yards per attempt, 2 sacks, 36.8% success rate, -0.42 EPA/play

Lagway lit up two defenses ranked sub-90 in adjusted EPA/play allowed, but struggled against every defense ranked in the top 40. There are three top-20 EPA/play defenses remaining on Florida’s schedule and the first one is up on Saturday night.

Lagway is a true dual-threat with a ton of raw talent, but is still a young quarterback going through some growing pains. Seeing how he matches up against a stout Kentucky defense that held Carson Beck and Jaxson Dart to season lows in passing yards is the top matchup in Saturday’s contest.

Mertz was extremely efficient (76.6% completion rate, 53.1% success rate) but Lagway has been more explosive (9.64 yards per dropback) and turnover prone (five interceptions/fumbles in 177 snaps). How does that play out for this offense moving forward? We will start to get answers on Saturday.

Iffy run defense

Last season, Florida’s defense finished the season ranked No. 115 in non-sack rush yards per rush allowed (5.69) and No. 109 in 20-plus yards rushes allowed (22). Fitting the run wasn’t an issue down-to-down (No. 23 in rushing success rate allowed) but this group got gashed quite often.

New defensive coordinator Ron Roberts has helped fix the explosive play problem, but Florida is now losing the down-to-down fight. The Gators enter this week’s contest ranked No. 92 in rushing success rate allowed (41.7%) and No. 88 in EPA/rush allowed (0.04). Opponents are finding success on the ground. Mississippi State and Texas A&M both went north of 200 rushing yards against this front.

Florida showed some improvement against UCF and Tennessee, but allowed at least a 50 percent success rate in each game that turned into a ton of second-and-mediums and third-and-shorts. That could create an advantageous situation for Kentucky’s offense this weekend.

The Wildcats are not creating explosives on the ground (No. 84 in yards per non-sack rush, No. 96 in rushes of 20-plus yards) but this offense leads the SEC in rushing success rate (No. 4 nationally) and should consistently move the football on the ground.

In the last matchup between these two teams, Kentucky rushed for a season-high 329 yards on 9.1 yards per rush with a 41.7 percent rushing success rate. Florida has fixed its big play problem, but Kentucky could control the game with an efficient rushing attack.

Havoc creation could determine this matchup

Florida has lost nine turnovers through six games this season. In three games against top-40 defenses, the Gators have seven total turnovers and have allowed 25 tackles for loss. Billy Napier’s offense ranks No. 121 in havoc rate allowed (14.2%). That is concerning going into a matchup against a Kentucky defense that ranks No. 2 in defensive havoc rate (17.5%).

DJ Lagway has been more prone to turnovers than Graham Mertz and is entering a matchup against a defense that has recorded 11 sacks in four SEC games and has created at least one takeaway in every game but one. Against Georgia, UK had a dropped interception, missed multiple fumble recovery chances, and had a pick-six overturn. A lot had to happen for there to be a doughnut in the takeaway department.

Florida’s lack of ball security against Kentucky’s defensive disruption will be one of the top matchups on Saturday. However, Kentucky’s offense is No. 107 in havoc rate allowed and Florida’s defense is No. 49 in defensive havoc rate.

Do not be surprised if turnovers swing this game one way or another. Kentucky is undefeated when it wins the turnover margin this season. Florida is 0-8 against power conference competition under Napier when the Gators lose the turnover margin.