Bio Blast: Mississippi State Bulldogs
Kentucky will welcome Mississippi State to Kroger Field on Saturday for a big game for Mark Stoops and his program. The Cats have drawn what appears to be two of the top three teams in the SEC West this season.
Mike Leach’s third Mississippi State team is off to a hot start as the Bulldogs have logged three Power Five wins by an average margin of 21 points. Kentucky will have their hands full with the Bulldogs who are playing at or near a top-10 level this season.
To get this week of preparation started, let’s dig into Mississippi State to see why Leach’s squad is having so much success.
Extreme efficiency
Unlike other spread offenses, Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense is not known for either tempo or creating explosive plays. State’s pass-heavy scheme wants to spread out defenses, throw easy passes, and create run after catch opportunities. In many ways, this is a ball control offense.
Leach’s teams are almost always known for their efficiency and this year’s squad is about as efficient as it gets.
The show starts with quarterback Will Rogers (6-2, 210, Jr.) who is posting a 52.1 percent passing success rate on 41 throws per game. The former three-star recruit has started for Leach at Mississippi State since he was a true freshman and appears to have total control of the offense completing 71.6 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns, three interceptions, and 7.5 yards per attempt while throwing for 351.7 yards per game.
Rogers is not the only one playing at a high level.
The Bulldogs are running the football more this season as tailbacks are averaging 22.8 attempts per game. Dillon Johnson (6-0, 215, Jr.) and Jo’quavious Marks (5-10, 210, Jr.) are two of the most efficient tailbacks in college football having combined to record a 56.3 percent rushing success rate on 119 total attempts with 45 first downs or touchdowns. Johnson provides more big play pop (13 rushes of 10+ yards), but neither takes many negative plays (9.2% stuff rate) as the Bulldogs stay ahead of the chains on the ground.
All of this efficiency is adding up to create a dynamic red zone profile. The Bulldogs have scored touchdowns on 11 consecutive red zone possessions and trail only Ohio State in red zone touchdown percentage (95.2%).
State has elite efficiency and that is the No. 1 reason why this offense is averaging 34.2 points per game against Power Five foes.
Another bad run defense
Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett has brought a version of Rocky Long’s 3-3-5 stack defense to Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs have been headaches for offenses to deal with. The gap cancellation scheme will use both pre-snap and post-snap movement on the line and randomizes what additional safety comes into the box for run fits. It can be a pain for offensive lines and quarterbacks to recognize.
Despite that, the Bulldogs have had issues stopping the run this season.
Mississippi State’s defense enters Week 6 ranking No. 99 in yards per rush (4.5), No. 60 in rush success rate, and No. 82 in rush EPA. The biggest weakness the Bulldogs have on this side of the ball is slowing down the run game.
Arkansas and LSU were the two teams to have the most success against this Mississippi State defense this season. The Hogs were unable to finish scoring opportunities with four possessions ending inside the Mississippi State 30 with zero points. Meanwhile, LSU ran wild in the fourth quarter. Each offense rushed for over 200 yards on five-plus yards per attempt.
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For Kentucky to win on Saturday, the Cats must establish the run again after a very successful day (175 non-sack rushing yards, 5.8 yards per rush, 56.7% success rate) against a bad South Carolina run defense.
Strength in numbers at wide receiver
After Makai Polk and his 105 receptions left for the NFL, Mississippi State had a clear hole to fill at WR1. The Bulldogs have not filled that hole yet but that’s because this passing attack has truly become a strength in numbers operation.
An astounding 10 players have logged at least 10 receptions, and six players have recorded at least 20 receptions. Will Rogers does not have a true No. 1 target and that makes this offense difficult to defend as the ball could go anywhere.
Rara Thomas (6-2, 200, So.) is the most dangerous receiver averaging 17.5 yards per catch with three grabs of 25-plus yards. Caleb Ducking (6-5, 200, RSr.) is a top red zone threat with seven touchdowns on 39 targets. Rufus Harvey (5-10, 165, RSo.) is the slot option that makes this offense go in the intermediate zones.
Mississippi State will spray the ball to multiple pass catchers. Kentucky must stop concepts and not players on Saturday night.
Veteran defense
Zach Arnett might have the oldest defense in college football this season. Mississippi State starts three super seniors, four redshirt seniors, two true seniors, and two true juniors. The Bulldogs are old, and that experience is leading to big-time play.
Most notably, State has been great at forcing takeaways. The Bulldogs have produced at least one turnover in every game this season creating multiple against Arizona, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. Emmanuel Forbes (6-0, 180, Jr.) is the top havoc producer with a blocked kick, four interceptions, and six pass breakups. Kentucky must know where No. 13 is at all times.
It will be very hard for Kentucky to win on Saturday with a negative turnover margin. Last season, State forced four takeaways in this matchup turning a close game into a blowout. The Cats cannot let this defense feast on turnovers.
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