Bio Blast: Northern Illinois Huskies

Kentucky football’s final buy game of the season has arrived in Week 4. Defending MAC champion Northern Illinois will be rolling into town on Saturday for a showdown under the lights at Kroger Field with ESPN2 on the call.

Head coach Thomas Hammock has seen his fourth NIU team fall in an early 1-2 hole after a couple of close losses to Tulsa and Vanderbilt to begin the season. However, this is a team with a high ceiling and that is mainly due to the firepower available on offense.

Let’s dive into the second MAC opponent of the season.

Injury bug has arrived in DeKalb

Expectations were high at Northern Illinois entering 2022 due to the firepower returning on offense. The Huskies rushed for 241.2 yards per game as one of the most run-heavy offenses in college football. There was a lot to like about that returning group, but the potential of the passing game was what was going to NIU a chance to make another title run.

Unfortunately, two primary pieces have now been sidelined.

Trayvon Rudolph (5-10, 182, Jr.) led the Huskies in receptions (51), receiving yards (892), and receiving touchdowns (7) in 2021. The All-MAC performer also served as the team’s primary kick returner logging a 100-yard touchdown in the third phase. The Illinois native was expected to be one of the top wideouts in the MAC this season but was lost in fall camp for the year due to a knee injury.

That was a big blow to the offense, but not as big as a recent development.

After starting the game against Vanderbilt with seven consecutive completions, quarterback Rocky Lombardi (6-3, 227, Super) was forced to leave the contest with a left knee injury after an awkward slide on a scramble. The Michigan State transfer has been playing excellent football to this point of the season and is the clear top player on NIU’s roster. Take a look at some of the advanced numbers:

• 51.7% passing success rate
• 21.7% explosive pass rate
• 8.8 yards per attempt

Northern Illinois could be heading to Lexington without its top two offensive weapons.

Bad passing defense

Despite winning a MAC title last season, getting stops was a significant issue for Northern Illinois defensive coordinator Derrick Jackson. The Huskies were bad in multiple areas last fall.

• Scoring: 33.7 (No. 112 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 6.8 (No. 121 overall)
• Yards Per Rush: 5.8 (No. 127 overall)
• Yards Per Attempt: 8.2 (T-102 overall)
• Takeaways: 12 (T-113 overall)
• Red Zone TD Rate: 69.4% (No. 109 overall)

NIU’s run defense has shown some improvement but the pass defense is not very good right now.

Opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3 percent of their 31.7 throws per game with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions on nine yards per attempt. Last week, true freshman AJ Swann got his first career start for Vanderbilt and had a monster day throwing for 255 yards and four touchdowns with a 60.7 percent success rate.

Facing a strong Kentucky passing offense, the Huskies could be in for a long day at Kroger Field.

Dominant ground game has disappeared

Last season under offensive coordinator Eric Eidsness, NIU built one of the best rushing attacks in college football. The Huskies had five players rush for over 400 yards and leaned on a ball control offense to win many close games.

However, leading rusher Jay Ducker (1,184 yards, 5.4 yards per rush) transferred to Memphis in the offseason, and the Huskies have decided to scale back the amount of QB run. Despite returning three starters on the offensive line and two tailbacks who combined to rush for 1,112 yards on 6.1 yards per attempt, the ground game does not have the same pop through three games.

Northern Illinois will enter Saturday averaging 154.7 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per attempt. Both Antario Brown (5-10, 218, So.) and Harrison Waylee (5-10, 192, Jr.) have combined to produce a paltry 35.1 percent success rate on 77 attempts as the ground game is consistently falling behind the chains.

The ineffectiveness is forcing the Huskies to lean to the passing game more, and that could be an issue if Rocky Lombardi is forced to miss some time.

Close game track record

Thomas Hammock is in year four at Northern Illinois and has coached 35 games for the Huskies compiling a 15-20 overall record. In that time, the former Baltimore Ravens running backs coach has seen 21 games (60%) decided by one score.

On their way to a MAC title in 2021, NIU went 7-2 in one-score games during the regular season winning three separate games by one point. Overall, Hammock has logged an 11-10 record in close games, but his team is more than comfortable operating late when things get tight.

If Kentucky finds itself in a dogfight late on Saturday night, the Cats will be up against a team that has had a lot of recent success sealing victories late into the fourth quarter.