Bio Blast: Ole Miss Rebels

After a fun first month of the season, here comes the meat and potatoes of the Kentucky football schedule in October. The Cats will make their second SEC road trip in 2022 this weekend when Mark Stoops’ team puts its No. 7 national ranking on the line against No. 14 Ole Miss.

Let the real fun begin.

The Big Blue Nation has had this road trip circled for a very long time, and there will be strong contingent of fans in the house at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium even if a long day of tailgating was eliminated by the local 11:00 a.m. kickoff time. KSR will be here every step of the table to help set the table for this top-15 clash.

Kentucky has a chance to make another statement on Saturday. Let’s begin my diving into an opponent that is 15-3 over their last 18 games with a handful of top 25 victories.

Lethal rushing attack

Lane Kiffin has put together consecutive top-20 offenses at Ole Miss, and the wunderkind play-caller is well on his way to having another top-20 unit this year. However, Matt Corral and his 9.4 yards per attempt on 31 throws per game are not walking through that door. As the Rebels lost both their star quarterback and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to Oklahoma, Kiffin has leaned into his personnel and built a dynamite rushing attack out of his spread tempo attack.

Through four games, the Rebels are piling up some gaudy statistics in the running game.

• 280.7 rushing yards per game (No. 4 nationally)
• 49.7 rushing attempts per game (No. 8 nationally)
• 5.8 yards per rush (No. 8 nationally)
• 65.1% run play rate (No. 7 nationally)
• 15 rushing touchdowns (No. 3 nationally)

Arkansas (67.3%) and Minnesota (69%) are the only power conference teams that are running the ball more than Ole Miss. Many believe that Lane Kiffin’s offenses are wide open and full of passing, but that has not been the case since he adopted some principles from the Art Briles spread and started ramping up the tempo at FAU.

The Rebels have led the SEC in rushing attempts each year under Kiffin finishing No. 1 in rushing yards in 2020 and No. 2 in 2021. Ole Miss is trending to finish in the top-2 again as they will have to fight off another offshoot of the Briles offense ran by Kendal Briles at Arkansas.

Ole Miss is a run-first operation under Kiffin.

Unorthodox defense

Ole Miss does things different on offense, but that remains true on defense. In Kiffin’s second season, the Rebels switched to a modified dime defense that had been gaining traction in the Big 12.

Matt Campbell’s rise at Iowa State has a lot to do with defensive coordinator Jon Heacock installing a 3-2-6 defense that plays with four safeties on the field at once. The Rebels installed this look under D.J. Durkin last season and made some big strides.

The Rebels are willing to play with a light box in order to crowd throwing windows with coverage. The goal is to have one safety lurking just outside to be a free runner to defend the run when it arrives. It’s not a perfect defense, but it typically limits gashes.

Ole Miss had a ton of issues stopping the run in 2021 (No. 126 in rushing success rate), but the passing defense jumped into the top-30 in yards per attempt allowed, and the group forced 21 takeaways in 13 games.

Under new defensive coordinator Chris Partridge, we’ve seen Ole Miss take a few more chances and that has resulted in 28 tackles for loss, but that could be scaled back when SEC play starts.

Once both teams settle into the game on Saturday, expect a defense that will try and make Kentucky dink-and-dunk its way down the field to score.

Developing QB

Jaxson Dart has a very high ceiling at quarterback. The former top-50 recruit has terrific movement skills with a live arm that can threaten every level of the defense. The Utah native is also a threat in both the design run game and scramble situations due to his plus athleticism.

Many physical tools are available for the blue-chip QB who will be making his seventh career start on Saturday. However, it appears that Lane Kiffin is keeping his new signal-caller on a short leash.

The play-calling head coach did not confirm Dart as his full-time starter until after last week’s win over Tulsa, but was very unhappy with his quarterback just one week early following a lackluster first half against Georgia Tech.

Dart very much has a gunslinger mentality at the position, but that has led a high passes defended rate (15.1%) on 271 career throws. To this point, the new QB has put up strong efficiency (48.2% success rate) and explosive (20 completions of 15+ yards) numbers but the Rebels rank No. 108 in passing expected points added (EPA) which says the good in the passing game has very much been empty calories.

Kiffin hasn’t asked his quarterback to throw it more than 27 times in a game yet, but that likely needs to change soon. Can the high-ceiling prospect limit mistakes if the sample size increases?

Transfers are producing

I’m not sure who gave Lane Kiffin the “Portal King” nickname in the offseason, but it’s hard to argue against it right now. The third-year head coach added 16 scholarship transfers to the roster since the end of last season, and those additions are making an impact.

When the Rebels take the field on Saturday against Kentucky, nine transfers will start for Ole Miss that weren’t on the team last season.

Next to Jaxson Dart (USC), TCU transfer Zach Evans is RB1 while both Malik Heath (Mississippi State) and Jaylon Robinson (UCF) are starters at wide receiver. WKU transfer Mason Brooks could give the offense a sixth transfer starter if center Caleb Warren is unable to go after suffering an injury against Tulsa.

On defense, Central Michigan transfer Troy Brown leads the team in tackles (29). TCU transfer Khari Coleman leads the team in non-sack tackles for loss (4) and sacks (2.5) as a hybrid LB/EDGE player. Auburn transfer JJ Pegues is the team’s top run stuffer and a key piece at setting point of attack at defensive tackle.

Ole Miss leaned into the transfer portal in the offseason, and the additions have made a quick impact in Oxford.