Bio Blast: Tennessee Volunteers

Kentucky (3-5, 1-5) is hitting the road again after finishing the SEC home slate winless in 2024. The program is not in a good place as the offensive problems will not go away and we’ve seen some real defensive regression since the bye week. This is not where the program wants to be heading into a November push that features a rivalry home game and two road contests against top-10 competition.

One of the biggest tests of the season has arrived in Week 10.

Josh Heupel‘s fourth Tennessee team has just one loss through seven games and is very much in the mix for an SEC title and College Football Playoff berth. The Vols (6-1, 3-1) are off consecutive home wins over Florida and Alabama off the second bye week of the season and have a huge road game against Georgia awaiting on Nov. 16. The Vols have everything to play for. Kentucky is two losses away from ending an eight-year bowl streak. These are two programs heading in opposite directions.

KSR’s Bio Blast is taking an early look at what’s ahead on this trip to Neyland Stadium for the Wildcats. Heupel’s latest team looks a lot different.

Run-first spread offense

Tennessee enters Saturday’s contest ranked No. 45 in points per drive (2.51). The Vols are still playing with pace and extreme tempo, but this has not been the high-octane attacks we saw in 2021 and 2022 with Hendon Hooker behind center. The passing game (No. 72 in EPA/play) has had some issues, and that has forced a run-heavy offense to become more run-heavy.

Josh Heupel’s attack ranks No. 11 nationally in run play percentage (62.33%). That trails only Texas A&M among power conference teams. The Vols will run the ball and then run it some more. This offense has reached 40-plus rushing attempts in every game but the loss to Arkansas.

Dylan Sampson is leading the way.

hit the afterburners.

📺 ESPN
📲 https://t.co/At1KjcpCSN pic.twitter.com/88BYruKs1y

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) October 13, 2024

The 201-pound junior has rushed for 838 yards and 17 touchdowns on 144 carries. The Louisiana native has become a true workhorse for this offense recording at least 22 carries in four consecutive SEC games. Sampson has been efficient (44% success rate) and explosive (15.3% explosive rate) while fumbling just once and creating 32 missed tackles, according to PFF data. Sampson was arguably the player of the game in Tennessee’s win over Kentucky last year and should receive a heavy workload on Saturday night.

The Vols will want to hammer the rock, but former five-star recruit Nico Iamaleava is starting to show some growth as a passer. After a rough stretch, the Southern California native made some big throws against Alabama but also adds value with his legs chipping in 235 non-sack rushing yards. Heupel’s offense will want to establish the run, but has stayed ahead of the chains in the passing game (No. 22 in passing success rate) and always has home run potential in this spread scheme.

Tennessee’s attack starts with the ground game. If Kentucky does not fit the run better this weekend it will be a long night in Knoxville.

Dominant defense on Rocky Top

Defense is not typically associated as a strength when discussing Josh Heupel’s tenure as a head coach at UCF and Tennessee, but that has changed this season. The Vols might have the best defensive line in college football as defensive coordinator Tim Banks has built a bonafide top-five unit.

Tennessee has not allowed more than 19 points this season. This group ranks highly in numerous metrics.

• Points Per Drive: 0.96 (No. 1 nationally)
• Yards Per Play: 4.03 (No. 2 nationally)
• Success Rate: 35.7% (No. 13 nationally)
• EPA/Play: -0.25 (No. 2 nationally)
• Yards Per Rush: 3.32 (No. 2 nationally)
• Yards Per Dropback: 6.28 (No. 48 nationally)
• Havoc Rate: 16.5% (No. 2 nationally)

Some SEC teams have found some down-to-down success in the air as the Vols rank No. 85 in passing success rate allowed, but this defense makes teams one-dimensional, has forced multiple turnovers in four games, averages over eight tackles for loss per game, and consistently gets stops.

Alabama does not beat Florida or Alabama with this defense playing at a top-five level. The Vols are contenders this season because of the defense.

Tennessee is very tough to beat at Neyland Stadium

Josh Heupel is 33-13 overall at Tennessee. This program is on track to win at least nine games for the third year in a row. There have been some struggles on the road (7-8 overall) with four outright losses as a betting favorite, but this team doesn’t lose at home when laying points.

Tennessee is 22-4 overall at Neyland Stadium with Heupel on the sidelines. The Vols are 20-0 outright as a betting favorite and 14-6 against the spread. This SEC program does not lose at home when they are not supposed to. The fan base and administration have gone all-in on the Heupel era to create some great environments, and the football program has rewarded those atmospheres with some big wins and no unexpected losses.

Kentucky will have to end quite the streak to leave Knoxville with a win on Saturday night.