Bio Blast: Vanderbilt Commodores

After a huge road win SEC win in a very big swing game, Kentucky is returning home to Kroger Field for a three-game homestand against Power Five competition. On Saturday, the Cats will look to win consecutive conference games for the first time this season.

Clark Lea is making the trip to Lexington for the first time as a head coach and his second Vanderbilt team enters Week 11 reeling a little bit. The Commodores (3-6, 0-5) have lost five consecutive SEC games by an average margin of 29 points. Vandy has been more competitive in recent losses to Missouri and South Carolina, but things are not trending in the right direction as a thin roster is starting to get worn down.

Kentucky is a double-digit favorite for a reason this weekend. Let’s dive into what Lea has on the West End.

One long, embarrassing losing streak

During the 10-year run by Mark Stoops in Lexington, the head football coach has helped the Kentucky football program end numerous embarrassing losing streaks. As part of the football rebuild, eliminating those public black eyes was very important as the Wildcats climbed the ladder and began to earn respect in the Southeastern Conference.

Clark Lea has inherited a similar situation at Vanderbilt where the former Notre Dame defensive coordinator is looking to end a very embarrassing streak for the Commodores.

After Saturday’s loss to South Carolina at home, Vandy has now lost 25 consecutive SEC games. The Commodores are three losses away from their third consecutive winless campaign in SEC play. Back in 2019, Vanderbilt upset Missouri at home as a 21-point underdog but finished that year at just 1-7 in league play.

The Dores have not won an SEC road game as an underdog since 2017 as Lea is still searching for his first conference win. Kentucky will now want to avoid being the team that allowed Vanderbilt to snap this long losing streak.

Eliminating this streak is the biggest task for the new Vanderbilt regime to end sooner rather than later.

QB injuries

During the 2022 recruiting cycle, Clark Lea and his staff recorded one of their first big recruiting wins when quarterback AJ Swann flipped from Maryland and signed with Vanderbilt. The Canton (Ga.) Cherokee product became the starter for Vandy in Week 3 and showed some real flashes of potential early in the year.

🤯🤯🤯#AnchorDown pic.twitter.com/YWdVvBg3ya

— Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) October 22, 2022

Swann can be a QB for this downtrodden program to build around, but the true freshman had to leave the game last week with an unspecified injury. This was on the heels of being knocked out of the Missouri game two weeks ago on what appeared to be a similar lower-body injury. Swann could be unavailable this week.

It seems very possible at this point that Kentucky will see a backup quarterback on Saturday. Mike Wright has come off the bench in each of the last two seasons to face Kentucky tossing two touchdown passes last season in Nashville. The Cats could see the dual-threat quarterback for a full 60 minutes on Saturday.

Wright isn’t the passer that Swann is and enters Saturday with a low career completion percentage (55.2%) on 281 throws. The junior does provide a run element, but Brad White’s defense has been very good at eliminating QB run this season.

Things could be tough for Vandy if Swann is unable to play.

Awful passing defense

The emergence of AJ Swann and some intriguing skill talent has allowed the Commodores to score some points this season, but the defense still has a long way to go. Vanderbilt enters Week 11 owning arguably the worst defense in the Power Five.

Opponents are scoring 36.8 points (No. 124 nationally) on 6.8 yards per play (No. 126 nationally) against defensive coordinator Nick Howell’s unit this season. Most notably, it has been very easy to move the ball through the air against this defense.

Vanderbilt is allowing 9.1 yards per attempt and have given up 20 passing touchdowns in six games against Power Five foes. Seven offenses have averaged over eight yards per attempt against Vandy this year.

The defense does not have many answers and is a unit that can be shredded through the air as some team speed is really lacking on this defense.

Go-to tailback

Ray Davis was one of the first big additions that the new Vanderbilt coaching staff made when the Commodores added the Temple transfer to the roster before the 2021 season. However, the senior was lost for the year after three games. Davis has returned in 2022 to put a strong season together.

The 205-pound tailback enters Saturday’s contest with 731 rushing yards and 142 receiving yards with seven total touchdowns. Davis is a workhorse back for the Commodores averaging 19.7 touches per game. The veteran is coming off his best game of the season when he rushed for 167 yards on 8.3 yards per rush against an iffy South Carolina run defense.

If AJ Swann is unable to go, Kentucky can expect a heavy dose of No. 2 on Saturday.