Bio Blast: Vanderbilt Commodores

Kentucky stacked some good performances together entering the bye week. After a reset, those good performances will need to continue as the Cats play their first game in October. The biggest story in college football is making the three-plus hour drive to Lexington this weekend.

Clark Lea‘s Vanderbilt program stunned the sports world when the Commodores beat Alabama 40-35 as a 22.5-point home underdog. No one saw this coming and a good start (3-2, 1-1) gives this program on the West End a chance to make some noise in SEC play.

The Wildcats are a two-touchdown favorite in Saturday’s game but this meeting between the long-time SEC members has more stakes than usual. KSR is taking a closer look at the most popular team in college football heading into Week 7.

Offensive scheme change is paying big dividends

In 2022, Vanderbilt found success on offense by becoming a run-heavy attack with Mike Wright at quarterback and Ray Davis at tailback. That success went away in 2023 when Vandy shifted to an RPO-heavy approach that asked the passing game to carry the load.

Entering year four, head coach Clark Lea knew some big changes needed to be made and that Vanderbilt needed to be unique on offense to win games. The 42-year-old head coach might have made the best coordinator change in college football this season.

Vanderbilt took advantage of the new rule change that allows analysts to coach on the field and implanted the New Mexico State offense into the West End. Jerry Kill resigned after two seasons as the head coach at New Mexico State, but took a job on Lea’s staff as senior offensive advisor. That move brought offensive coordinator Tim Beck, quarterback Diego Pavia, and tight end Eli Stowers with him in the move from Las Cruces to Nashville.

The results have been instant.

Vandy has installed Beck’s unique shotgun option offense that will include a lot of misdirection and test defensive eye discipline and gap control constantly. The quarterback is asked to play a huge role and that has led to Pavia leading the team in non-sack rushing attempts (88). Beck’s offense ranks No. 8 nationally in run play percentage (63.7%) operating very much like a triple option attack. That makes the challenge unique.

The individual numbers are not outstanding with Vanderbilt ranking outside the top 30 in success rate, yards per play, EPA/play, and points per drive. However, this team ranks inside the top 25 in third down success rate and red zone touchdown percentage with only one turnover in five games. This is ball-control football at its finest.

Lea’s new offense shortens the game, is committed to a methodical rushing attack, and has created efficiency (No. 16 in success rate) and explosiveness (No. 8 in EPA/dropback) when pass plays are called in the run-heavy scheme. Vanderbilt is operating very much like a service academy on offense and that presents some unique challenges.

Big play problems on defense

The other big change Clark Lea made in the offseason was taking over play-calling duties on defense. Vanderbilt has produced a sub-90 defense five consecutive years, according to ESPN’s SP+ rankings. Vandy is currently No. 86 overall showing some improvement but this is a group with some issues.

Vanderbilt’s defense enters Week 7 ranked No. 50 in success rate, No. 86 in yards per play, No. 106 in points per drive, and No. 119 in adjusted EPA/play. The Commodores arguably have the worst defense in the SEC again with Virginia Tech, Georgia State, and Alabama all reaching at least 27 points against this unit. Missouri scored 20 points in regulation, but missed three field goal attempts in 11 possessions. Teams are moving the ball and scoring points.

The pass defense has been a bigger issue to this point with Lea’s 4-2-5 scheme ranking No. 92 in success rate and No. 107 in yards per dropback. Vandy’s run defense is winning down-to-down (No. 15 in rushing success rate) but there have been a ton of big plays allowed. Missouri’s Nate Noel rushed for 199 yards against Vandy and Alabama’s tailbacks combined to rush for 68 yards on 11 carries. Some traditional run game success should be available.

Fast starts

Vanderbilt is not built to play from behind. The winning blueprint for this SEC team has been to get off to fast starts, grab an early lead, and dictate the pace of play. That has happened in almost every game this season.

The Commodores got off to a 17-0 lead against Virginia Tech before needing overtime to get a win. A 13-0 start in the Alabama game was the cushion needed to outlast the Crimson Tide in a shootout. A long touchdown pass from Diego Pavia put Vandy up 7-0 early against Missouri and played a big role in allowing Vandy to hang around and get that game into overtime.

But in the team’s most disappointing result yet, Vandy fell in a hole early. Georgia State grabbed a 3-0 and 10-3 leads. The Commodores came storming back and ultimately lost on a two-minute touchdown drive by the Panthers, but the hot start by the Sun Belt home dog forced Vandy to play left-handed.

The first quarter has been critical. Vanderbilt is doing a good job of generating stops early and the offense is able to play from ahead. If Kentucky can get an early lead that could take the Commodores out of their comfort zone. Against the best defenses on their schedule, Vandy has been able to consistently grab an early lead and that has a lot to do with their early season success.