Bracket Rundown: Kentucky vs. The Computers

Kentucky fans might ended up feeling Zoolander when he and Hansel were trying to figure out how computers worked. Many believe that the eye test tells them that Kentucky is a potential No. 1 seed. The AP Top 25 poll could also say that Kentucky is a top-five team come Monday.

That is not what the computers see.

As of Thursday night, Kentucky is not seen as a top-five or even top-10 team by the computers. That helps explain why bracketologists are plugging in the Wildcats on the 3-seed line entering the second full weekend of conference play.

On this week’s bracket rundown, we’re going to take a look at where the computers have Kentucky slotted and what needs to happen for Kentucky to jump a seed line or two.

Computer Profile

There are now numerous metrics that the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses to determine how to seed lines. The NET ranking is the biggest one. Kentucky currently sits at No. 16 one spot behind Kansas and one spot ahead of Utah State. Kentucky’s computer metrics in the NET are rock-solid across the board but they aren’t raising the ceiling.

• KenPom: 16
• BPI: 19
• Strength of Record: 20
• KPI: 21

Kentucky is not seen as a top-15 team at the moment by the computer metrics. That is weighing down the resume. A weak non-conference strength of schedule (No. 201) certainly hasn’t helped matters for the Wildcats. Gonzaga dropping a game to Santa Clara on Thursday night also will not help.

Through 14 games, Kentucky has played in only three Quadrant 1 games and nine Quadrant 3/Quadrant 4 games. The schedule is backloaded this season.

There are plenty of opportunities to improve Kentucky’s advanced metric profile. Winning is most important. But as of right now, the Wildcats are locked in as a 3-seed.

UNC Wilmington loss stands out

With a win over Monmouth on Thursday, UNC Wilmington snapped a three-game losing streak to improve to 10-5 (1-2). The Seahawks should remain in the CAA title hunt throughout the season, but this will remain a stain on Kentucky’s resume on Selection Sunday.

Kentucky is currently the only top-25 team in the NET with a Quadrant 3 loss. That 80-73 defeat to Takayo Siddle’s team on the first Saturday in December will be attached to Kentucky all season. It was just one game, but that is a result that matters when you start digging into the team sheets.

Expect that defeat to be brought up when Kentucky gets talked about in seeding.

Luckett’s Top 16

1. Purdue (14-2, 3-2)
2. Houston (14-1, 1-1)
3. UConn (14-2, 4-1)
4. Arizona (12-3, 3-1)
5. Kansas (13-2, 1-1)
6. North Carolina (12-3, 4-0)
7. Tennessee (11-4, 1-1)
8. Wisconsin (12-3, 4-0)
9. Illinois (12-3, 3-1)
10. Kentucky (12-2, 2-0)
11. Marquette (11-5, 2-3)
12. Baylor (13-2, 2-0)
13. Duke (12-3, 3-1)
14. Auburn (13-2, 2-0)
15. Creighton (12-4, 3-2)
16. Oklahoma (13-2, 1-1)

Weekend Games to Watch

— Tennessee at Georgia: The Vols are off a tough road loss to Mississippi State and are now 2-4 in Quad 1 games. Georgia has won 10 in a row and is looking for a signature win. Saturday will be a huge opportunity for Mike White’s second UGA team, but they get Tennessee in a tough spot.

— St. John’s at Creighton: Rick Pitino is coaching another NCAA Tournament team. St. John’s is now 4-1 in Big East play and up to a No. 9 seed at Bracket Matrix. Creighton is a team that Kentucky could be competing with down the road. An important Big East game will occur on Saturday afternoon in Omaha.

— Oklahoma at Kansas: The Big 12 is going to have quite the fight to the finish. After a bad loss to UCF, Kansas returns home to face an Oklahoma team that is having a good year two under Porter Moser. The loser will leave Phog Allen with a losing conference record.