Breaking down Kentucky's case to make the NCAA Tournament

In the midst of one of the more miraculous tournament runs of the last few years, Kentucky Baseball could only watch as Tennessee broke open a blowout in the SEC Tournament semifinals early Sunday morning. As a result, the program’s NCAA Tournament hopes remain up in the air.

The Wildcats did enough in the tournament to make some noise and create some discourse over whether they should be in, but the actual chance of seeing that ‘Cats in a regional this week are slim.

The numbers still don’t back the Wildcats

Kentucky’s resume is one of the wilder ones we’ll see around the country. They undoubtedly have some of the most impressive wins of the season out of any program, including three series wins against opponents currently ranked inside the top 20 in RPI. They have series wins against both the SEC and Big 12 regular season champions.

Add in the fact that they beat Georgia at home and then beat Auburn three times in the span of the week and Kentucky easily has enough impressive wins to have an argument for a spot in a regional. Not to mention they boast the 15th best strength of schedule.

The Wildcats have 1⃣2⃣ wins vs. the RPI Top 25 this season, third-most in the country.

— Kentucky Baseball (@UKBaseball) May 29, 2022

So, why are they still ranked 51 in RPI then?

What’s killing the ‘Cats is that their non-conference record leaves more to be desired. 18-6 doesn’t sound too awful but when you dive deeper, some of their midweek faults may really kill them at the end of the year. Losses to Western and Eastern Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana damaged the Wildcats significantly.

The media doesn’t really seem all that high on the ‘Cats either. While everyone was basking in the underdog story that was Kentucky during the SEC Tournament, people still don’t believe they’ve done enough to earn a chance to keep playing.

𝐋𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐈𝐧 // 𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐎𝐮𝐭

Stolen bids have dramatically changed the at-large ladder heading into Championship Sunday.

PROJECTIONS: https://t.co/9rH5nDn9LU pic.twitter.com/V60glxMB9S

— D1Baseball (@d1baseball) May 29, 2022

Much like the rankings at D1Baseball, most of the projections still have Kentucky on the outside looking in. I’d like to argue that making it to the tournament semifinal in arguably the toughest conference in the country should help boost your stock slightly. But then again we just saw Texas A&M get screwed over a few months in basketball with an eerily similar situation where the regular season failures couldn’t outweigh the postseason shock.

Who you got for @NCAABaseball bid?@KendallRogers @tedcahill @ChrisBurke02 @SECbaseball @DavidDellucci @ESPNDari @KP_Omaha pic.twitter.com/QBouNenTyO

— Kentucky Baseball (@UKBaseball) May 28, 2022

Kentucky is in a strange spot. There’s evidence that they don’t deserve a spot because of their inconsistent play throughout the regular season — fair enough. There’s also evidence that Kentucky could go into any regional and potentially win it given who we have seen them beat before.

The Wildcats were also peaking at the right time. The Bat ‘Cats were 7-3 in their last 10 outings, including multiple wins over ranked teams and three wins against Auburn.

Kentucky has highs this season that could rival any other program. They’ve also had some pretty significant lows that are going to be considered by whoever is deciding the field.

I wouldn’t hold my breath hoping that the ‘Cats are going to get into the tournament, but hey, we’ve seen crazier things happen. Just gotta wait until Monday. The Selection Show will begin at noon EST on ESPN2.