Can Cason Wallace break the Kentucky trend of falling on draft day?

With all the focus on whether or not Chris Livingston, Oscar Tshiebwe, and Antonio Reeves will remain in the NBA draft or return to college (and rightfully so), Kentucky’s most prized pro prospect, Cason Wallace, has been overlooked.

If history is any indication of what to expect during June’s draft, Kentucky fans with a concern about how next season’s roster is shaping up might not be the only people looking over the 6’4″ combo guard. NBA executives might be, too.

In recent years, a handful of Kentucky playmakers have dropped below their pre-draft projections when the big day actually arrives. Most recently (not counting the NFL draft debacle that Will Levis experienced), TyTy Washington entered draft day in 2022 with an average projection amongst the most notable prognosticators of 20.7 in the first round. The green room invitee kept his head up, but Washington’s name did not come off the board until No. 29 in a pick that eventually landed with the Houston Rockets.

Similarly, Immanuel Quickley (No. 29 to the New York Knicks in 2020), Tyrese Maxey (No. 21 to the Philadelphia 76ers in 2020), and Keldon Johnson (No. 29 to the San Antonio Spurs in 2019) all dropped several places below where experts predicted.

Kentucky players who have slipped have all proved NBA scouts wrong

It is also important to point out that Quickley, Maxey, and Johnson all had career years this season. If their respective drafts were to be redone now, all three of them would go significantly higher. TyTy Washington also finished his rookie season strong, albeit in the G League, averaging nearly 30 points on his team’s way to the G League championship game.

Is Cason Wallace next on this list?

Most mock drafts have Wallace coming off the board in the late lottery, in a fairly tight window between 11 to 13. Last year about this time, mock drafts across the Internet had TyTy Washingon in the same ballpark before dropping his status a bit in the weeks leading up to the draft.

Wallace had the third-highest vertical reach amongst point guards in the NBA combine, but his other measurables were middle-of-the-road. He chose not to participate in scrimmages during the combine, nor is he working out for many teams. However, he is interviewing quite a few organizations; a little ironic given that he is notoriously a quiet guy.

The Ringer’s scouting report on Wallace praises his fundamentals, calling him a turnover-averse shot-creator. It also calls out his unproven ability to shoot off the dribble and lack of an elite handle may keep some of the top teams from selecting him.

Many other scouting reports paint a similar high-floor, low-ceiling picture.

I’ve given up on projecting what will happen on draft day, but I will say this: if Wallace does slip out of the lottery, it will most certainly be another regrettable mistake from NBA executives.

The NBA Draft will take place on June 22.