Can Kentucky Fans Leave the Vanderbilt Game Satisfied?

On paper, Kentucky should take care of business against Vanderbilt. The fact is games are not won on paper. There’s something about the series between these two teams that often leaves the BBN wanting more and it’s unlikely Saturday is an exception to that norm.

The Wildcats have an 88.4% chance to win according to ESPN’s FPI, and SP+ calls for a 24+ point UK win. Vanderbilt has the worst pass defense in the SEC and a rush defense that is allowing more than 4.5 yards per carry, about a half-yard shy of Chris Rodriguez‘s season average. To make matters worse, the player that seemingly gave Clark Lea’s their greatest bolt of energy, freshman QB AJ Swann, is sidelined by an injury. Additionally, a flu outbreak may keep even more Commodores from playing.

The deck is stacked against Vanderbilt. Kentucky should run the Commodores off the field. Will they? A decisive win does not feel like it will be in the forecast.

Lexington will not exactly be popping for this game. Cold weather and potentially rainy skies will scare a ton of Kentucky fans away from Kroger Field. A sleepy nooner, Kentucky must generate their own juice against an opponent that does not exactly get the juices flowing.

The best way to combat a sleepy environment is to start with a bang. That was a rarity for this team, up until last week’s opening offensive (Dane Key touchdown) and defensive possessions (three-and-out with 2 TFLs). One theme Kentucky did not kick at Missouri was sloppy play. It comes in a variety of forms — last week it was special teams errors and 12 penalties for 84 yards — and can quickly turn a positive stretch of plays into a scoreless drive.

Of all the potential roadblocks to a satisfying Kentucky football win, one stands above the rest: closing out the Commodores. Even if Kentucky opens up a big lead, it can all go away in the second half. In 2020 UK led 38-21 with four minutes left and only won by three points. Last year Vandy turned a 28-point halftime deficit into a 34-17 loss, wiping away covers for UK backers in back-to-back seasons.

Wins are wins. Mark Stoops should never apologize for a win. However, the BBN would love to see the offense take flight and surpass the season-high of 37 points in a blowout. That may be a bar too high for this team to surpass, likely leaving some disappointed Saturday afternoon.