Cats As Big Underdog Not Common Under Calipari

Did you know that John Calipari were only an underdog 5 times in his first 3 seasons at Kentucky? And more amazingly, they won all 5 games outright:
2009: UCONN (1 pt), Won by 3
2010: Washington (3.5 pts), Won by 7
2010: Louisville (3 pts), Won by 15
2011: Florida (1.5 pts), Won by 16
2011: Ohio State (5.5 pts), Won by 2

Just a fun little side note before we get into the real post today. UK faces a real challenge tomorrow, travelling to probably the best team in the SEC and currently the hardest home arena in the conference, the Auburn Tigers. While Bruce Pearl’s team has had its ups and downs this year, at home they have been unstoppable, especially in conference play. They have beaten their three ranked home opponents in SEC play by an AVERAGE of 27 points.

While I haven’t seen an official spread out just yet, I am guessing it will put Auburn as the favorite tomorrow by 7-9 points. Which, if true, would be a fairly rare occurrence in the John Calipari era for his Cats to be such underdogs in a game. In fact, it has only happened 9 times in 15 seasons that UK has been a 7-point underdog or more. Those 9 games were:

2022-23 Regular Season: at Tennessee, 11 point underdog
RESULT: UK Wins Outright 63-56

2017-18 Regular Season: at West Virginia, 10.5 point underdog
RESULT: UK Wins Outright 83-76

2012-13 Regular Season: at Florida, 10 point underdog
RESULT: UK Loses 69-52, DOES NOT COVER

2017-18 Regular Season: at Auburn, 9.5 point underdog
RESULT: UK Loses 76-66, DOES NOT COVER

2013-14 Regular Season: at Florida, 9 point underdog
RESULT: UK Loses 84-65, DOES NOT COVER

2020-21 Regular Season: at Tennessee, 7.5 point underdog
RESULT: UK Wins Outright 70-55

2012-13 Regular Season: at Louisville, 7 point underdog
RESULT: UK Loses 80-77, COVERS

2020-21 Regular Season: at Alabama, 7 point underdog
RESULT: UK Loses 70-59, DOES NOT COVER

2023-24 Champions Classic: Kansas, 7 point underdog
RESULT: UK Loses 89-84, COVERS

In those 9 games, UK won the game outright 3 times and covered another 2 games. That also means they got beat and didn’t cover in 4 of those 9 games. So it’s really been a mixed bag of results. I think if Kentucky fans are to find any positive spin on this it would be that 2 of UK’s most surprising performances have come in the last 3 seasons. The 2 wins as big underdogs in Knoxville in 2021 and 2023 truly came out of the blue and sparked a rejuvenated fanbase. I think a win tomorrow could do the same.

WHAT AN UNDERDOG WIN COULD MEAN FOR UK

It’s been a rocky few weeks for this team and fanbase. But a win tomorrow could totally reset those hard feelings and get this fanbase fully locked in for March (and beyond hopefully). If the Cats are unable to challenge the Tigers though, I think it will be a final nail in the coffin of UK as the SEC’s elite program right now. Auburn would like that title, I am sure. And they will be primed to prove they are the SEC’s best team and program right now.

This will be a “show me” game for the Cats. I am not saying the UK has to win tomorrow. But if we are to believe this team will be any kind of threat in March, they will have to be very competitive in this game. A blowout would be a final result that this team doesn’t have what it takes to be a Final Four contender. Cal’s teams have shown they can face these underdog odds and come out on top. Here’s to hoping they can pull it off again tomorrow.