Cats as 'dogs: Vegas keeps doubting Kentucky against Tennessee- and paying the price

As we look ahead to Kentucky‘s first run-in with Tennessee in the NCAA Tournament, let’s look back to Kentucky’s recent results versus the Vols and how the desert missed the mark setting the lines.

The oddsmakers made the Vols the betting favorite in five of the last six Kentucky-Tennessee matchups, with Tennessee laying an average of seven points per game in those five meetings since the 2023 season. However, Kentucky not only covered the point spread in all five of those instances, but the Wildcats won all five games straight up for a 5-0 record as underdogs, including two games in which Tennessee was a double-digit favorite. Just a heartbreaking run for Tennessee fans.

So, while it can be aggravating for Kentucky Basketball to be considered an underdog to its rival south of the border, it’s actually been a great spot for Kentucky and very profitable for the fans who partake in gambling. This season alone, Kentucky bettors more than quadrupled their wager on the Cats to win in Knoxville, then capitalized on Kentucky as a rare home underdog in Rupp, somewhere around +140, depending on where/when the bet was placed.

Will that trend continue on Friday in Indianapolis, where Tennessee is laying points to UK for a sixth time in seven games? As we wait for the Sweet Sixteen to play out, here’s the breakdown of Tennessee’s losing streak to the Cats as the betting favorite.

2025: Kentucky vs. Tennessee (-3.5)

On February 11, Tennessee visited Rupp Arena as the fifth-ranked team in the country, laying 3.5 points to the Wildcats in Lexington and seeking revenge for a loss in Knoxville. Kentucky was without Jaxson Robinson’s 13.3 points per game on the wing but still defended home court to win outright, shooting 50% from 3 in the win. Tennessee shot 16.7% from outside in the loss, making only three of 18 tries.

Kentucky 75, Tennessee 64 (UK covered the spread by 14.5 points)

2025: Kentucky at Tennessee (-10.5)

In the first meeting this season, eighth-ranked Tennessee closed as a 10.5-point favorite in Knoxville, only to lose a third straight home game to Kentucky. Playing without starters Lamont Butler and Andrew Carr, Mark Pope’s makeshift starting five each scored in double figures, led by Koby Brea with 18 points on 5-5 shooting from the field and 3-3 from outside. Jaxson Robinson (17), Otega Oweh (14), Ansley Almonor (12), and Amari Williams (10) pitched in on the scoring, as well as Trent Noah with five points off the bench, including a logo 3-pointer by the freshman from nearby. Tennessee could’ve used some of Kentucky’s 3-point shooting. The Vols shot 11-45 from 3 in the loss.

Kentucky 78, Tennessee 73 (UK covered the spread by 15.5 points)

Deep catch and shoot 👌 is sooooo good from @trentnoah2_.

📺 – ESPN pic.twitter.com/vVqXWrT8ET

— Kentucky Men’s Basketball (@KentuckyMBB) January 29, 2025

2024: Kentucky at Tennessee (-8.5)

Kentucky also had Tennessee’s number in Knoxville in 2024, winning as an 8.5-point underdog at Tennessee. Antonio Reeves and Reed Sheppard combined for 27 points each against SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht’s 40 in what would be John Calipari’s final win as the head coach of Kentucky. Sheppard shot 7-10 from 3.

Kentucky 85, Tennessee 81 (UK covered by the spread by 12.5 points)

2024: Kentucky (-1.5) vs. Tennessee*

The one time Kentucky was the betting favorite in the last three seasons, Tennessee stole one in Rupp Arena by scoring 103 on the Cats. Zakai Zeigler and Josiah Jordan-James scored 26 each for the Vols to cancel out Rob Dillingham’s career-high 35 off the bench. You may also remember this game as the time Aaron Bradshaw kissed Tobe Awaka in a heated and physical matchup.

Tennessee 103, Kentucky 92 (Tennessee covered the spread by 12.5 points)

2023: Kentucky vs. Tennessee (-1.5)

Kentucky also got points in its home game versus Tennessee in 2023. The Vols traveled to Rupp as a top-10 team and a 1.5-point favorite, only to lose by 12 to the unranked Wildcats. Chris Livingston had one of his better games as a Cat with a 12 and 10 double-double, plus 16 points each from Oscar Tshiebwe and Cason Wallace in a 66-54 win. Tennessee missed 21 of 27 tries from 3 in the loss and got outrebounded by eight.

Kentucky 66, Tennessee 54 (UK covered the spread by 13.5 points)

2023: Kentucky at Tennessee (-11.5)

In the most surprising of upset wins in the series and the one that started the trend, Kentucky traveled to Knoxville as an 11.5-point underdog, one of the largest point spreads as an underdog in school history. Calipari’s Cats were injured- down a starting point guard and playing Cason Wallace through a back injury- and coming off a home loss to South Carolina and a 26-point loss to Alabama. Still, Kentucky beat No. 5 Tennessee in Knoxville, led by Antonio Reeves with 18 points off the bench, 15 from Oscar Tshiebwe, and 13 from CJ Fredrick in a starting role. Tennessee went 3-21 from 3 in the home loss.

Kentucky 63, Tennessee 56 (UK covered the spread by 18.5 points)

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Make it six of seven?

Kentucky is currently a 4.5-point underdog to Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen. Will the Wildcats add to the trend? UK covered the last five underdog games against the Vols by 74.5 points, an average of 15 points per game and a rare run of misses by Vegas.