Cats over Cards? Here's how

We are T-minus 74 hours from tipoff in the Yum Center where the Wildcats visit the Cardinals for just the second time in the John Calipari era. Wins and losses aside, Kentucky is better in a few very meaningful stats. Take a look. -- Kentucky three-point leader Kyle Wiltjer is a better shooter than Louisville leader, Russ Smith. Despite playing 58 more minutes this season, Louisville guard and frequent shooter Russ Smith still falls short of Kyle Wiltjer’s shooting prowess. The Cards rely heavily on Smith to put up points — he is the team leader in points scored with almost 20 per game. When he steps out beyond the perimeter, he isn’t exceptional. He is making on average just two three’s; hoisting up nearly 5.9 per game. Smith can do some damage from long range if he gets hot, just like he did against Miami (5-of-7) and Missouri-Kansas City (3-of-5). But he can also be pretty awful — as he has been more often than not — like he was against Manhattan (4-of-13) and Florida International (2-of-9), and two of the better opponents the Cardinals have faced so far this season, Missouri (1-of-7) and Memphis (1-of-6). When you consider the struggles Wiltjer had near the start of December, when he shot a combined 6-for-27 over a three-game span, the fact that he is still statistically a better shooter is saying a lot. In total, Smith has shot nine more threes and made two less, which is not an astronomical difference. But all things considered, Wiltjer has a much better chance of lighting it up from deep on Saturday than Smith does. -- Kentucky rebounding leader Nerlens Noel has more rebounds than Louisville leaders, Gorgui Dieng or Chane Behanan With the injury to Louisville big man Gorgui Dieng it is hard to project how his stats would have progressed through the last five or six games had he played. Regardless, the skill gap between Dieng and Kentucky phenom Nerlens Noel isn’t as large as some Cardinals fans would like you to believe. Both big men are right there in terms of statistical relevance. Noel leads all rebounders between the two teams with 9.1 per game. Combine that figure with his 2.7 steals per game and 3.7 blocks per game, the dude can alter shooters with his sheer presence. Next-leading rebounder for the Cats is Alex Poythress with 6.5 per game, combined the two have an average of 15.6 boards. Dieng and Behanan down low are no slouches on the glass, bringing in 8.0 and 7.6 rebounds per game respectively. Coincidentally, the two combine for 15.6 rebounds per game. Furthermore, both teams are currently rebounding exactly at 38.8 per game. The discrepancy on the glass is literally neck-and-neck, and in the unlikely event Dieng does sit out against Kentucky, the rebounding advantage will swing favorably towards the Cats. -- Kentucky blocks leader Nerlens Noel has more deflected shots than Louisville leaders, Gorgui Dieng or Montrezl Harrell Continuing the theme from Nerlens Noel the rebounder, here is Nerlens Noel the shot blocker; which he is doing with amazing consistency. Stuffing 3.7 shots per game, Noel has the same effect on shooters that Anthony Davis did last season. If you drive the lane against Noel, expect to take a drastically altered shot to lob it over the outstretched arms of Noel, or else it will be swatted harmlessly back down to the court. For Louisville, Dieng averages 2.0 blocks per game through the five games he’s played, but Harrell is practically a non-factor with his 0.9 average. If Dieng plays his inside presence will surely be a factor, but not to the same degree that Noel is for Kentucky. One winning formula this Saturday: If Noel plays his usual pesky game down low, making life difficult on Chane Benahan and others, and he stays out of foul trouble by keeping his footing on the pump-fakes, the Cards will have to count on Russ Smith and Peyton Siva being on from outside and driving the lane. Which is much easier said than done. Wiltjer will be called upon early to find his stroke from deep — if that fails, expect a lot of Willie Cauley-Stein and the twin towers to dominate the paint. Make Louisville beat you by shooting the ball.