Closers Eliminated from Contention by Road to Kentucky Derby Points System

It was a wet first May Saturday in 2009. The horse in the 8-hole was bumped out of the gate, then moved to the back of the pack. The three-year-old remained of the TV cameras’ sight for most of the race, until Calvin Borel made a quick move to the rail going around the final turn. Tom Durkin was so stunned, Mine That Bird had a three length lead down the stretch before the horse’s name was called. “An impossible result here,” said NBC’s exasperated broadcaster.

The 50-1 long shot ridden by Bo-Rail was an instant sensation. His endearing ride from last to first through the muck and mud inspired horse racing fans all across America. That may never happen again.

If video killed the radio star, the Kentucky Derby points system crushed the closer.

The Old System

Starting with the 2013 race, the Kentucky Derby Points System was created to “clear, practical and understandable path.” Under the previous system, horses got to the starting gate based on graded stakes career earnings. Those earnings could have come from sprints or turf races from more than a year prior to their Derby start. A few owners probably raced horses that didn’t belong, just to say they had a Derby horse.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby points system has standardized the qualification process. To get points you have to run well in longer races on primarily dirt surfaces. The schedule has changed, incrementally increasing the length of the races and placing the highest-valued preps later in the spring. It’s now much more difficult for a long shot to hit one big lick and slide its way into the Derby starting gate.

Road to Kentucky Derby Points System Eliminates Early Pace

Closers used to reign supreme. They have been replaced by frontrunners since the creation of the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The points system has eliminated variables, variables that some might argue make the race more fun. Sprinters could fly out of the gate, set a fast early pace, then wear themselves out and fall by the wayside. In turn, they would also wear out horses in the middle of the pack, allowing closers like Mine That Bird to make dramatic comebacks.

The last time a closer wore the garland of roses Orb took home the top prize in 2013, the first year of the points system. Since then it’s been all frontrunners. The last three to finish the race first were in the lead from wire-to-wire, although ironically only two have technically won the Derby.

Who Does it Favor in this year’s Derby?

Even though most agree that it’s a frontrunner’s race to win, handicappers love how Mo Donegal and Zandon finish races. Winners of the Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes, respectively, after watching those finishes it’s hard not to. In dead last in the middle of the final turn, watch Chad Brown’s Zandon (No. 4) maneuver through the Keeneland traffic better than a race-car driver on Versailles Rd.

If you’re ready to throw out the closers and go all in on early speed, Derby-favorite Epicenter led for the entire Risen Star and was just off the pace until it entered the second turn in a Louisiana Derby victory. Beaten by Epicenter last time out, Brad Cox’s Zozos will also be quick to the front. Even though Taiba has only raced twice, the former Bob Baffert colt has posted 100+ speed figures in its only two starts. Summer is Tomorrow, the UAE Derby runner-up, is expected to run straight for the front, however, few folks believe it will be able to maintain that pace for long.

Maybe the international horse sets up a classic Kentucky Derby race with a blistering pace, opening the door for a closer to emerge for the first time in a decade. But I won’t bet on it.