Coaches believe Mark Pope will be more successful than Pat Kelsey in the next five years

Let’s just be honest and call it like it is: the Kentucky vs. Louisville basketball rivalry has stunk in recent years. The Cats lead the series 12-3 dating back to the start of the John Calipari era, but they’ve won five of the last six by an average margin of 18.4 points per victory with the only loss coming during the historically poor 2020-21 season — by three points on the road, at that.

When a matchup between La Familia and The Ville at Freedom Hall for The Basketball Tournament is the highlight of this rivalry in the last couple of seasons, you know things are rough.

Times are changing, though, with Coach Cal replaced by Mark Pope and Kenny Payne replaced by Pat Kelsey. Optimism is high for both Big Blue Nation and Card Nation, but who will stand the test of time as the better coach? CBS Sports college basketball insiders Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander polled over 100 Division I men’s coaches to get their thoughts on the futures of Kentucky and Louisville basketball moving forward.

The winner? Pope with 67 percent of votes compared to 33 percent for Kelsey.

For starters, there is a belief that Kentucky is built to succeed more consistently while Louisville’s lows can hit rock bottom — as we saw during the Kenny Payne era.

“Kentucky has a built-in stability to it that I don’t think Louisville does. Calipari’s teams there were so naturally variable, given the one-and-done recruiting model he made use of, but Pope will be able to attract top talent while also being able to take the ‘right’ guys, whether they are ranked 12th in the country or 88th,” one coach told CBS Sports. “Coach Cal didn’t afford himself that opportunity, because of the recruiting arms race he put himself in year after year with Duke. Pope won’t have to face the same pressure to land top-1 or -2 recruiting classes, as long as he wins. Louisville, despite its resources and Pat Kelsey’s stellar track record, seems more prone to hot and cold spells, where recruits can waver.

“I still think Kelsey will be successful at Louisville, so this is not a knock on him, but I think Pope’s brand of basketball, and the freedom to recruit his kind of guys with the Kentucky brand behind him, will make them a force. Also helps to be able to poach excellent assistants, like Alvin Brooks III, etc.”

Other coaches singled out Pope’s coaching abilities after taking him on over the years or by watching him succeed at low- and mid-major programs. If he can do it at those places, there is a belief he can do it at Kentucky with all of the resources in the world in the palm of his hand.

“I’m going with Mark Pope because I’ve coached against him for years. I respect his work ethic and acumen as a coach,” one said. “Very innovative offensively and far more passionate than people give him credit for. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a run at a Final Four sooner rather than later.”

“Both have won at low-major and mid-major level, which I greatly respect. Pope. Better job,” another added.

And then my personal favorite stance? Kentucky will always be Kentucky and Louisville will always be Louisville.

“It’s Kentucky, first and foremost. Secondly, that dude can coach. His offense is fun to watch,” one coach said. “Louisville will always be the little brother.”

How about the coaches who believe Kelsey will be more successful than Pope? Their answers make a little more sense when expectations are included. At Kentucky, it’s national championship or bust, no matter who is on the bench. At Louisville? Well, just making the NCAA Tournament is considered a successful season at this point.

The bar is just hilariously low for the Cardinals, swinging a few coaches that direction.

“Louisville is in a league that isn’t as powerful top to bottom in resources or stability. They can rise up fast with NIL and their pedigree,” one coach said. “Their recent ups and downs leads to big momentum even with a few tourney appearances. A few tourney appearances at Kentucky is hot seat.”

“This is based off the perception of success to where each programs floor currently is. Kelsey needs to make Sweet 16s to be deemed successful in Louisville, but Pope has about three years to make a Final Four or they’ll be looking to make a change,” another added. “Following Calipari is a beast of a task. In Kelsey’s first two years he can do no wrong after what Louisville has been through. Not to mention, in recent years, behind Carolina and Duke, the ACC has not been near as tough of a conference as the SEC.”

Very little about actual coaching abilities, everything to do with the magnitude of the job. That’s a trade-off I’m willing to take.

Check out all of the anonymous quotes and leftover thoughts on the in-state rivalry here.