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College Football Cheat Sheet: Week 10

Adam Luckettby:Adam Luckett11/03/23

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(Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

November has arrived. That means high-stakes football has arrived. On Tuesday, we received our first College Football Playoff top 25 of the 2023 season. We have officially entered the stretch run.

Over the next four weeks, conference divisions will be won, playoff bids will be achieved, and bowl slots will come into focus. There is still a lot to play for. Get yourself buckled in for what should be a wild few weeks.

KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet is back to set the table for another wild college football game after we saw three rivalry games not be decided until late in the fourth quarter on Thursday. Get ready for some more of that over the next few weeks.

The Slate

Boston College at Syracuse7:30pm ET (Friday)ESPN2
Colorado State at Wyoming8:00pm ET (Friday) CBS Sports Network
No. 23 Kansas State at No. 7 TexasNoon ET FOX
Texas A&M at No. 10 Ole MissNoon ETESPN
Wisconsin at IndianaNoon ETBig Ten Network
UConn at No. 17 TennesseeNoon ETSEC Network
Arkansas at FloridaNoon ETESPN2
Campbell at North CarolinaNoon ETACC Network
Jacksonville State at South CarolinaNoon ETESPNU
Nebraska at Michigan StateNoon ETFS1
No. 15 Notre Dame at ClemsonNoon ETABC
No. 1 Ohio State at RutgersNoon ETCBS
Arizona State at No. 18 Utah2:00pm ET Pac-12 Network
Georgia Tech at Virginia2:00pm ETThe CW
Navy at Temple2:00pm ETESPN+
Army vs. No. 25 Air Force2:30pm ETCBS Sports Network
Florida Atlantic at UAB3:00pm ETESPN+
USF at Memphis3:00pm ETESPN+
Louisiana at Arkansas State3:00pm ETESPN+
UTSA at North Texas3:00pm ETESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion3:30pm ETESPN+
James Madison at Georgia State3:30pm ETESPN2
No. 4 Florida State at Pittsburgh3:30pm ETESPN
No. 24 Tulane at East Carolina3:30pm ETESPNU
UCF at Cincinnati3:30pm ETFS1
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 22 Oklahoma State3:30pm ETABC
Houston at Baylor3:30pm ETESPN+
Virginia Tech at No. 13 Louisville3:30pm ETACC Network
No. 11 Penn State at Maryland3:30pm ETFOX
No. 12 Missouri at No. 2 Georgia3:30pm ETCBS
Iowa vs. Northwestern3:30pm ETPeacock
Illinois at Minnesota3:30pm ETBig Ten Network
Auburn at Vanderbilt4:00pm ETSEC Network
Charlotte at Tulsa4:00pm ETESPN+
ULM at Southern Miss4:00pm ETESPN+
Hawai’i at Nevada4:00pm ETSpectrum PPV
Georgia Southern at Texas State5:00pm ETESPN+
California at No. 6 Oregon5:30pm ETPac-12 Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State6:00pm ETESPN+
UNLV at New Mexico6:00pm ETMountain West Network
Marshall at Appalachian State6:00pm ETNFL Network
Louisiana Tech at Liberty6:00pm ETCBS Sports Network
BYU at West Virginia7:00pm ETFOX
No. 21 Kansas at Iowa State7:00pm ETESPN
Utah State at San Diego State7:00pm ETFS1
Kentucky at Mississippi State7:30pm ETSEC Network
Purdue at No. 3 Michigan7:30pm ETNBC
No. 5 Washington at No. 20 USC7:30pm ETABC
SMU at Rice7:30pm ETESPNU
No. 14 LSU at No. 8 Alabama7:45pm ETCBS
Miami at NC State 8:00pm ETACC Network
WKU at UTEP9:00pm ETESPN+
Stanford at Washington State9:00pm ETPac-12 Network
No. 16 Oregon State at Colorado10:00pm ETESPN
Boise State at Fresno State10:00pm ETCBS Sports Network
No. 19 UCLA at Arizona10:30pm ETFS1
Week 10 schedule

Top 10 Games

  1. No. 14 LSU at No. 8 Alabama
  2. No. 12 Missouri at No. 2 Georgia
  3. No. 23 Kansas State at No. 7 Texas
  4. No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 22 Oklahoma State
  5. No. 5 Washington at No. 20 USC
  6. No. 21 Kansas at Iowa State
  7. Texas A&M at No. 10 Ole Miss
  8. Virginia Tech at No. 13 Louisville
  9. No. 1 Ohio State at Rutgers
  10. No. 19 UCLA at Arizona

College Football Gambling Corner

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De facto SEC West title game in Tuscaloosa

Ole Miss has only one SEC loss and currently owns the tiebreaker over LSU due to a head-to-head win over the Tigers. However, the Rebels still have to travel to Georgia. Another loss is likely coming for Lane Kiffin‘s program. That makes Saturday night’s tilt at Bryant-Denny Stadium extra important.

Alabama (7-1, 5-0) will host LSU (6-2, 4-1) under the lights in the Tuscaloosa. The winner will leave Week 10 as the favorite to bring home what will likely be the final SEC West title. Last year, LSU upset Alabama in Tiger Stadium. The Crimson Tide will be looking to return the favor in a revenge spot.

Since losing to Texas, Alabama has ripped off six consecutive victories highlighted by top-20 double-digit home wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee. Nick Saban‘s team is playing old-school football led by a top-10 defense and a passing attack that can land haymakers. This appears to be one of Saban’s worst teams at Alabama, but they are still in the national title hunt in November despite some ugly moments this season.

LSU enters November in the conversation for an SEC title despite having a defense that ranks No. 99 in success rate, No. 108 in yards per play, and No. 117 in EPA/play. The Tigers have one of the worst defenses in the Power Five. Thankfully, Jayden Daniels is playing All-American football (73.1% completion rate, 11.5 yards per attempt, 56.2% passing success rate, 610 non-sack rushing yards, and 30 total touchdowns). The former Arizona State transfer makes LSU dangerous. Alabama must find a way to contain him.

If a shootout breaks out on Saturday night, will Alabama be able to keep up? Will Daniels make a Heisman Trophy statement? Or will Alabama get out the clamps and slowly pull away playing complementary football?

A lot is on the line in this matchup. The winner will likely head to Atlanta to face Georgia next month.

A measuring stick for Missouri

We all know how great Georgia is. Kirby Smart’s program has not lost a regular season game since 2020 for a reason. Carson Beck is now one of the best quarterbacks in college football, the defense is still elite, and there are NFL players every place you look. The Bulldogs are the favorites until someone knocks them off.

UGA will welcome Missouri to Sanford Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Smart’s team will likely leave Week 10 with a 9-0 record. However, this SEC East contest is more about Missouri. Just how good is Eliah Drinkwitz‘s team?

In big spots this season, Georgia has hammered Kentucky and Florida. Missouri is better than both teams. Will that make a difference? The Tigers have a passing game that should be able to cause some damage on Saturday.

Drinkwitz’s squad is in the midst of a special season with three very winnable games remaining on the slate after the meeting with college football’s best program. Is Missouri legitimate top-10 good or is this a 9-3 team that is probably top-15 good? We will find out “between the hedges”.

Two monster clashes in the Big 12

Entering November, there are five teams in the Big 12 with a 4-1 record in league play. Four of those teams will be playing each other on Saturday. It’s separation time.

Over in Austin, Steve Sarkisian‘s team will be without starting quarterback Quinn Ewers again when Texas hosts Kansas State on Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats have won three consecutive Big 12 games by a total score of 120-24. Chris Klieman has a legitimate top-15 team. Will Texas be good enough to beat that with a backup quarterback?

In Stillwater, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will meet again for Bedlam. This is the last meeting scheduled between the two teams as the Sooners are moving to the SEC next season. After a tough road loss to Kansas, Brent Venables‘ team must bounce back quickly against a hot Oklahoma State team. Mike Gundy is again doing an excellent coaching job, and Ollie Gordon II looks like the best tailback in college football.

The winner of these two games will be in the driver’s seat to reach the Big 12 Championship Game in Jerry World.

A last chance for USC

Lincoln Riley is having a disappointing year two out in Los Angeles. Caleb Williams is not going to win the Heisman Trophy, two losses to Notre Dame and Utah have taken USC out of the College Football Playoff hunt, and the defense is not good again. This will end up being a disappointing year, but there is still a lot left to play for.

The Trojans can play spoiler in the Pac-12 before moving to the Big Ten in 2024.

USC (7-2, 5-1) trails only Washington (8-0, 5-0). Riley’s program will host the Huskies on Saturday night for one of the biggest home games in recent memory. For the first time in his head coaching career, Riley will be a home underdog. USC will face a Washington team that has looked vulnerable in the two games since beating Oregon. The Trojans have a great shot at letting the rest of the Pac-12 know who is still the apex program in this conference.

A win over the Huskies will give USC a great shot at reaching the Pac-12 Championship Game for the second year in a row. Riley and Williams can play spoiler over the next two weeks against Washington and Oregon. The Trojans could be the ones who keep the Pac-12 out of the College Football Playoff again.

College Football Degenerate Under: Iowa vs. Northwestern Under 31.5

Iowa might be moving out of the CFDU soon after the school announced that the program will move on from offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz at the end of the season. However, the status quo remains the same here at KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet. Odds are that an Iowa conference game is going to be featured on the CFDU.

On Saturday afternoon, Iowa and Northwestern will meet inside the friendly confines of Wrigley Field for a college football game inside of an MLB ballpark. What could go wrong? After this total opened up at 29, we have seen it grow throughout the week. Both offenses are sub-100 in EPA/play. This has Big Ten under written all over it.

Expect a lot of punts (or high pop flys) after what will likely be some excessive tailgating from Iowa fans in Wrigleyville before the game.

The rest of the college football card

— Don’t sleep on Rutgers this weekend. The Scarlet Knights host Ohio State in a nooner and have a very salty passing defense. That could be enough to make the Buckeyes uncomfortable on the road.

— Nebraska can get to six wins with a road victory over Michigan State on Saturday afternoon. That would make the Huskers bowl eligible for the first time since for the first time since 2016. This proud program would be taking a good first step under Matt Rhule with some big November games against Wisconsin and Iowa remaining.

— Florida hosts Arkansas this week, and the spread in that game continues to drop. The Hogs are off a bye and will have an interim offensive coordinator. Sam Pittman really needs some wins as hot seat chatter is growing in Northwest Arkansas. Florida is playing better football and sits at 5-3 but has remaining games against LSU, Missouri, and Florida State. The Gators will be an underdog in each matchup. A loss in Week 10 could mean five consecutive defeats to end the year for Billy Napier. That would not be a good development.

— Clemson is reeling, and Dabo Swinney is taking shots at fans. The Tigers are 4-4 with remaining home games against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina. Swinney’s program ends the season with a road trip to South Carolina. Things could get ugly down the stretch. Saturday’s home game with the Irish is significant. Marcus Freeman‘s team has a path to 10-2 and a New Year’s Six berth with a win in Death Valley.

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