College Football Cheat Sheet: Week 13

We have reached the penultimate weekend of the college football regular season. The sprint is almost over, and we’ve got some games with major stakes as the playoff race continues to heat up.

KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet sets the table for another college football weekend. Let’s see what you got, Indiana.

The Slate

Temple at UTSA	7:00pm ET (Friday)	ESPN2
Purdue at Michigan State	8:00pm ET (Friday)	FOX
No. 24 UNLV at San Jose State	10:00pm ET (Friday)	FS1
North Carolina at Boston College	Noon ET	The CW
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State	Noon ET	CBS Sports Network
Wake Forest at No. 8 Miami	Noon ET	ESPN
No. 13 SMU at Virginia	Noon ET	ESPN2
No. 25 Illinois at Rutgers	Noon ET	Peacock
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State	Noon ET	FOX
Iowa at Maryland	Noon ET	Big Ten Network
No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida	Noon ET	ABC
UConn at Syracuse	Noon ET	ACC Network
UMass at No. 10 Georgia	12:45pm ET	SEC Network
WKU at Liberty	1:00pm ET	ESPN+
UTEP at No. 11 Tennessee	1:00pm ET	ESPN+
Charleston Southern at Florida State	1:30pm ET	ESPN+
Rice at UAB	2:00pm ET	ESPN+
Bowling Green at Ball State	2:00pm ET	ESPN+
New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee	2:30pm ET	ESPN+
James Madison at Appalachian State	2:30pm ET	ESPN+
FIU at Kennesaw State	3:00pm ET	ESPN+
ULM at Arkansas State	3:00pm ET	ESPN+
Arizona at TCU	3:00pm ET	ESPN+
Charlotte at Florida Atlantic	3:00pm ET	ESPN+
South Alabama at Southern Miss	3:00pm ET	ESPN+
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State	3:30pm ET	ESPN+
UCF at West Virginia	3:30pm ET	ESPNU
Tulsa at USF	3:30pm ET	ESPN+
East Carolina at North Texas	3:30pm ET	ESPN+
San Diego State at Utah State	3:30pm ET	CBS Sports Network
No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State	3:30pm ET	ESPN
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina	3:30pm ET	ESPN+
No. 16 Colorado at Kansas	3:30pm ET	FOX
Wisconsin at Nebraska	3:30pm ET	Big Ten Network
Stanford at California	3:30pm ET	ACC Network
No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota	3:30pm ET	CBS
Northwestern at Michigan	3:30pm ET	FS1
The Citadel at No. 17 Clemson	3:30pm ET	The CW
Kentucky at No. 3 Texas	3:30pm ET	ABC
Pittsburgh at Louisville	4:00pm ET	ESPN2
Louisiana Tech at Arkansas	4:00pm ET	ESPN+
No. 23 Missouri at Mississippi State	4:15pm ET	SEC Network
Troy at Louisiana	5:00pm ET	ESPN+
Washington State at Oregon State	7:00pm ET	The CW
Baylor at Houston	7:00pm ET	FS1
No. 12 Boise State at Wyoming	7:00pm ET	CBS Sports Network
Georgia State at Texas State	7:00pm ET	ESPN+
No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma	7:30pm ET	ABC
No. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn	7:30pm ET	ESPN
No. 22 Iowa State at Utah	7:30pm ET	FOX
No. 19 Army vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (Yankee Stadium)	7:30pm ET	NBC
Marshall at Old Dominion	7:30pm ET	ESPNU
Vanderbilt at LSU	7:45pm ET	SEC Network
Virginia Tech at Duke	8:00pm ET	ACC Network
Cincinnati at Kansas State	8:00pm ET	ESPN2
USC at UCLA	10:30pm ET	FOX
Air Force at Nevada	10:30pm ET	FS1
Colorado State at Fresno State	10:30pm ET	CBS Sports Network

Top Games

1. No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State
2. No. 19 Army vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
3. No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State
4. No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida
5. No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma
6. No. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn
7. No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota
8. No. 16 Colorado at Kansas
9. No. 13 SMU at Virginia
10. USC at UCLA

College Football Gambling Corner

Want spread plays? We got spread plays.

— Luckett’s Locks: Penultimate Picks

Want more Kentucky football content? Join KSR Plus for the most comprehensive coverage of the Cats on the internet. With a KSR membership, you get access to bonus content and KSBoard, KSR’s message board, to chat with fellow Cats fans and get exclusive scoop.

Subscribe to the KSR YouTube Channel for press conferences, interviews, original shows, fan features, and exclusive content.

Indiana’s colossal stage

Indiana (10-0, 7-0) has been the biggest surprise story in college football this season. In year one under head coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers rank in the top three in net EPA/play, success rate, and yards per play. IU has an elite passing game (No. 1 in success rate, No. 1 in EPA/play, No. 2 in yards per dropback) led by Ohio quarterback transfer Kurtis Rourke (71.8% completion rate, 10.1 yards per attempt, 23 total touchdowns). The defense is outstanding against the run (No. 8 in success rate allowed) and strong against the pass (No. 18 in EPA/dropback allowed). The Hoosiers are a complete football team.

But their at-large playoff bid could be in muddy waters with a loss on Saturday in Columbus.

Ohio State (9-1, 6-1) is still in national title or bust mode after spending $20 million on this current roster. The Buckeyes also rank in the top five in net EPA/play, success rate, and yards per play. The offense under first-year play-caller Chip Kelly ranks No. 4 in success rate and No. 3 in EPA/play. The defense ranks No. 11 in success rate allowed and No. 4 in EPA/play allowed. This team went toe-to-toe with Oregon and Penn State on the road. 

An Ohio State win would all but guarantee that the Buckeyes and Ducks would meet in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game with the winner securing the No. 1 overall seed and the loser grabbing the No. 5 seed. But Indiana could make that case with a win. The recruiting rankings tell us this shouldn’t be close, but all of the metrics point to a 50/50 game.

“Big Noon Saturday” has got a good one on the tee box.

Does Notre Dame pass another test

The season began with a terrific road win for Notre Dame (9-1) in Week 1. That road victory against Texas A&M has only improved as the season progressed. However, the horrific Week 3 home loss to Northern Illinois has gotten worse.

The Irish have passed every test since with wins over Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Navy. But all of those teams are now out of the top 25. Notre Dame needs another good win to boost the resume and put them in a good spot before next week’s matchup against USC.

Army (9-0, 7-0) has moved into the top 20 of the playoff rankings and has a matchup with Tulane for the AAC title locked in for Championship Week. The Black Knights have won every game by double-digits this season as this option offense ranks No. 2 in EPA/play. But Notre Dame has handled another option team already this season.

The Irish hammered Navy at a neutral site. Will the same happen against Army? A win gets Notre Dame closer to an at-large bid, but a loss opens the door for Tennessee and gives Army a potential resume to jump ahead of Boise State.

By the way, this game is being played at Yankee Stadium. This one feels different in a lot of ways.

Big 12 Elimination

The dream season took a hit for BYU (9-1, 6-1) last week in the home loss to Kansas. The Cougars still control their College Football Playoff destiny as they sit atop the conference standings with Colorado, but a big test awaits in Tempe.

Arizona State (8-2, 5-2) might be the sport’s biggest surprise outside of Indiana as Kenny Dillingham as the Sun Devils competition for a conference title in year two. A win on Saturday afternoon would officially get this program into the thick of the Big 12 standings.

Elsewhere, Kansas will get another upset chance when they host Colorado (8-2, 6-1) at Arrowhead Stadium. Iowa State (8-2, 5-2) is still alive in this championship race but is also on the road to face Utah.

Saturday is a big one in the Big 12. One of these four teams could be eliminated from the title race.

Chaos Ingredients

It feels like it has been a few weeks since we’ve seen some absolute upset carnage. That could arrive this weekend. There are 11 ranked teams hitting the road to play unranked conference foes the week before much anticipated rivalry games. Could this be a look-ahead spot for anyone?

• No. 4 Penn State (-11.5) at Minnesota
• No. 7 Alabama (-13.5) at Oklahoma
• No. 9 Ole Miss (-12.5) at Florida
• No. 12 Boise State (-23) at Wyoming
• No. 13 SMU (-10) at Virginia
• No. 15 Texas A&M (-2.5) at Auburn
• No. 16 Colorado (-3) at Kansas
• No. 22 Iowa State (-7) at Utah
• No. 23 Missouri (-8) at Mississippi State
• No. 24 UNLV (-7.5) at San Jose State
• No. 25 Illinois (+1) at Rutgers

Penn State, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Boise State are all currently in the playoff field. SMU, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Iowa State are all in the hunt. Odds are high that we see multiple ranked teams from this group suffer losses in Week 13.

Saturday could deliver some chaos.

The rest of the college football card

— Saturday is another opportunity for Billy Napier and DJ Lagway to deliver another statement win after knocking off LSU last week. Lane Kiffin rolls into town with Ole Miss, and there was a lot of speculation that Kiffin could’ve become the next Florida coach if Napier was let go. Now they get to go head-to-head. This one could include some vertical passing fireworks.

— Nebraska (5-5, 2-5) has dropped four consecutive games and could see that bowl drought reach eight years without one more win. Saturday on Senior Day feels like the best chance for the Huskers facing a Wisconsin (5-5, 3-4) coming three consecutive losses. Both head coach have made in-season changes at offensive coordinator. This one could get weird in Lincoln.

— Michigan (5-5, 3-4) hosts Northwestern (4-6, 2-5) on Senior Day is there is nothing really at stake, but this total is ridiculous. The Wolverines are a 10-point favorite with a total of 36.5. That’s a projected final score of 23-13. Get ready for an absolute rock fight in the Big House.

— Alabama (8-2, 4-2) is making the trek to Norman to play a college football game for only the second time ever, and no one is talking about it. Oklahoma (5-5, 1-5) is the No. 1 reason why. The Sooners are having a bad season in year three under Brent Venables and are another team that has made an in-season offensive coordinator change. The Tide looks like a national title contender, and Oklahoma is ready for a December rebuild. Could what Venables called “Sooner Magic” arrive on Saturday night before Iron Bowl week arrives for Alabama?

— Hugh Freeze is having on rocky tenure on the Plains, but Auburn (4-6, 1-5) has a shot a recording a signature win to help a lost season look better. Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1) heads into Jordan-Hare Stadium with a huge game at Kyle Field against Texas awaiting next week. Can Freeze finally get that big win he has been looking for since arriving? This one feels like it could be dramatic.