Don't sleep on Mississippi State

Mississippi State is a dangerous team. Sure, Kentucky has had very few problems in the head-to-head since John Calipari landed in Lexington. Calipari’s record against Mississippi State is 17-1, with the one loss coming in that 2020-21 season we try to forget. Kentucky’s nine-win team lost to Mississippi State on Thursday of the 2021 SEC Tournament. Gross.

Still, Mississippi State deserves respect ahead of Wednesday night’s game in Rupp Arena. Second-year head coach Chris Jans has the Bulldogs playing well since he recently welcomed his star player back to the lineup. All-SEC forward Tolu Smith made his 2023-24 debut on New Year’s Eve, scoring 16 points with nine rebounds in his first game action since he suffered an offseason foot injury. Now four games into his senior year, Smith averages 16.8 points and 6.8 rebounds, leading his team in scoring in all but one of those games.

Against Tennessee, the 6-11 forward scored 23 points on 7-of-10 shooting from the field and 9-of-12 shooting at the foul line. His three-point play with 14.7 seconds left on the clock pushed Mississippi State ahead in the upset victory over the fifth-ranked Vols.

🏀 What a game for Mississippi State men's basketball

The Bulldogs top 5-Tennessee, 77-72

It's MSU's first AP Top 10 win since 2002

MRA grad Josh Hubbard led with 25 points
Tolu Smith had 23

Here's the wild ending: pic.twitter.com/4aQwtHjXlC

— David Edelstein 🌐 (@davidzedelstein) January 11, 2024

On his Monday night call-in radio show, John Calipari recalled that game, saying, “They took it to Tennessee’s big guys. Smith just went right at them, had 25 points and 12 rebounds, whatever it was. They’re good.”

In Orlando Antigua‘s look ahead to Mississippi State and Tolu Smith, the UK assistant added, “He’s big, physical, strong, experienced; really, really talented all-league player.” Kentucky will need to match Smith’s physicality once a shot goes up, Antigua said, to drive him away from crashing the glass. However, the Wildcats must be physical without fouling because Smith uses his size for frequent trips to the line.

“They do a great job of getting the ball to him in areas where he can finish or get fouls, and, you know, a guy that is going to the free throw line nine or ten times a game at his size, that’s a concern that we have to make sure that we try to minimize.”

Older, Physical, Chris Jans’ Defense

While Tolu Smith adds All-SEC talent and experience, Mississippi State was winning before Smith’s midseason debut. Like any good Chris Jans team, the Bulldogs relied on defense and toughness to get the job done while the team’s star was recovering. Before Smith’s December 31 return, Mississippi State ranked first in the SEC and ninth in the country in three-point percentage defense (26.4%); first in the SEC and 20th nationally in scoring defense (62.%); and second in the SEC and 23rd nationally in field goal percentage defense (38.4%). Currently, Mississippi ranks ninth in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.

“They’re good, just like I said about Texas A&M. They’re older,” John Calipari said Monday night. “They play a little bit of a 2-2-1 press. Man-to-man, they’re very aggressive. They pressure. They’ll stretch out. They collapse like a lot of teams in our league, which give you corner threes and some different threes because of how they play.”

Calipari noted that Tennessee was down 15 in Starkville, and a good South Carolina team needed late heroics to beat Mississippi State at home in the SEC opener.

Orlando Antigua said, “It’s going to be a physical matchup. Mississippi State is a tough, veteran, experienced team. Does that sound familiar in the SEC? A lot of veteran guys, a lot of grads, big bodies, so, we’re gonna have to take care of the ball, we’re gonna have to take care of the glass, and we’re gonna have to do a better job defending the ball.”

2x SEC Freshman of the Week, Josh Hubbard

Mississippi State will likely start five seniors–Dashawn Davis, Shakeel Moore, DJ Jeffries, Cameron Matthews, and Tolu Smith–against Kentucky’s youth Wednesday night in Rupp Arena. It’s the experience Calipari and Antigua kept mentioning in their game previews, and State’s biggest strength in the matchup. But off the bench, a Bulldog freshman provides an electric spark with 15.1 points per game in the backcourt.

Rookie guard Josh Hubbard already has two SEC Freshman of the Week awards for his contributions, first in November when he scored a career-high 29 in his fifth career game, then again earlier this week for his 25-point night against Tennessee. Through his first three SEC games, Hubbard averaged 17.3 points and three made three-pointers per game, playing only 24.3 minutes. He has some of that Rob Dillingham effect as a dynamic bench scorer for Mississippi State.

Josh Hubbard is a certified bucket. pic.twitter.com/gNTr85gjmy

— Tru Maroon Nation (@TruMaroonNation) January 11, 2024

Coming out of high school, Hubbard, a Mississippi product, was ranked outside of the top 100 in On3’s Industry Ranking, the proprietary algorithm that compiles ratings and rankings from all four primary recruiting media services.

At the time of Hubbard’s commitment, Chris Jans likely didn’t know he had found an immediate shot creator in his own backyard, but Hubbard has been exactly that for the Bulldogs. Jans recently said Hubbard’s older teammates have learned to trust him and they understand he’s a weapon.

Kentucky should win, but not without fighting

A return home to Rupp Arena comes at the right time, as Kentucky needs a bounce-back win to get back on track in league play and stay in contention for first place. Oddsmakers in the desert had the Cats giving up 5.5 points on the opening line when it was released Tuesday afternoon. Over at KenPom, Kentucky has a 69% win probability, with a five-point differential for the score projection.

But, for all of the reasons above and others, Kentucky cannot overlook Mississippi State and the Bulldogs’ 1-2 conference record. Don’t pay any attention to Calipari’s undefeated regular season record, either. Mississippi State is one of the SEC’s old, physical teams that Calipari warned us about before the season began and then again earlier this week. Tolu Smith brings a significant inside presence on both ends. Chris Jans’ team will try to limit possessions and put the Wildcats’ offense into halfcourt situations. With any success, Mississippi may put Kentucky in another tight game early in league play.

Hopefully, talent shines, and the Big Blue Nation is treated to another fun night in Rupp Arena. The Wildcats need to defend their home court to stay in the hunt, and the expectation is they will.

But don’t sleep on this Mississippi State team because effort and defense are coming.

Tip-off is at 7 p.m. Go Cats.