East Region Preview: Duke is the overwhelming favorite, but can Alabama make things interesting?

The Cooper Flagg show is coming to a TV near you, the Duke Blue Devils entering March Madness as the overwhelming favorite to come out of the East Region en route to the Final Four. Can Jon Scheyer avoid the upset? How is Flagg’s ankle? Will the lackluster ACC competition come back to bite them?

We’ll see if Alabama has something to say about it with Wisconsin and Arizona also sitting atop the East. Maybe BYU can make things interesting?

KSR is taking a closer look at one final region ahead of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

KSR Previews: Midwest, West, South

The Bracket

1.) Duke vs 16.) American/Mount St. Mary’s

8.) Mississippi State vs. 9.) Baylor

5.) Oregon vs. 12.) Liberty

4.) Arizona vs. 13.) Akron

6.) BYU vs. 11.) VCU

3.) Wisconsin vs. 14.) Montana

7.) Saint Mary’s vs. 10.) Vanderbilt

2.) Alabama vs. 15.) Robert Morris

East Region Schedule

Wednesday

Time (ET)	Game	TV / Stream
6:40 p.m.	(16) Mount St. Mary’s vs. (16) American Spero Dedes / Jim Spanarkel // Jon Rothstein	truTV

Thursday

Time (ET)	Game	TV
1:30 p.m.	(14) Montana vs. (3) Wisconsin Brad Nessler / Brendan Haywood // Dana Jacobson	TNT
4:05 p.m.	(11) VCU vs. (6) BYU Brad Nessler / Brendan Haywood // Dana Jacobson	TNT

Friday

Time (ET)	Game	TV
12:15 p.m.	(9) Baylor vs. (8) Mississippi State Ian Eagle // Bill Raftery, Grant Hill // Tracy Wolfson	CBS
12:40 p.m.	(15) Robert Morris vs. (2) Alabama Spero Dedes / Jim Spanarkel // Jon Rothstein	truTV
2:50 p.m.	(16) Mount St. Mary’s/American vs. (1) Duke Ian Eagle // Bill Raftery, Grant Hill // Tracy Wolfson	CBS
3:15 p.m.	(10) Vanderbilt vs. (7) Saint Mary’s Spero Dedes / Jim Spanarkel // Jon Rothstein	truTV
7:35 p.m.	(13) Akron vs. (4) Arizona Lisa Byington / Robbie Hummel, Jalen Rose // Andy Katz	truTV
10:10 p.m.	(12) Liberty vs. (5) Oregon Lisa Byington / Robbie Hummel, Jalen Rose // Andy Katz	truTV

Efficiency rankings

Using the pre-tournament numbers at KenPom, here is how the region ranks overall via adjusted efficiency.

Team	Overall	Offense	Defense
Duke (1)	1	3	4
Alabama (2)	6	2	12
Wisconsin (3)	13	13	27
Arizona (4)	14	12	33
Oregon (5)	31	39	31
BYU (6)	24	11	68
Saint Mary’s (7)	22	56	8
Mississippi State (8)	32	23	47
Baylor (9)	29	16	58
Vanderbilt (10)	49	30	83
VCU (11)	30	41	23
Liberty (12)	62	80	48
Akron (13)	99	66	183
Montana (14)	157	98	250
Robert Morris (15)	139	171	134
Mount St. Mary’s (16)	250	292	176
American (16)	237	252	205

East Region Shot Chart

Team capsules

1.) Duke

All eyes are on Cooper Flagg, the Wooden Award favorite working his way back from an ankle sprain with Duke’s championship hopes riding on the superstar freshman’s health. Entering the matchup at 31-3 with ACC regular season and tournament championships, the Blue Devils have won 19 of the last 20 and are the current favorite to win the program’s sixth national title. Jon Scheyer’s group goes into the NCAA Tournament with the No. 3 offense and No. 4 defense in college basketball, arguably the most complete team in the country. Don’t discount their start in Raleigh and finish in Newark before the Final Four — two hotspots for Blue Devil fans.

2.) Alabama

The Crimson Tide are as dangerous as they come offensively, ranked No. 4 in efficiency and No. 1 in tempo with six different players scoring in double figures every night, led by reigning SEC Player of the Year Mark Sears at 18.7 PPG. Grant Nelson injured his knee in the SEC Tournament semifinals and Alabama was immediately outscored 63-40 in the loss to Florida, something to keep an eye on as Nate Oats looks to lead his program back to the Final Four.

3.) Wisconsin

If you’re not familiar with the name John Tonje, you will be soon. The senior wing averages 19.2 points and 5.3 rebounds on 46/39/91 shooting splits to lead the Badgers while John Blackwell, averaging 15.5 points and 5.1 rebounds, is also a threat. Wisconsin finished the regular season losing three of five, but made a run to the Big Ten Tournament finals with three straight wins before finishing with a hard-fought loss to Michigan.

4.) Arizona

The Wildcats have been up and down, starting the year 4-5 before winning 13 of 14 going into mid-February, followed by a 3-5 finish to end the regular season. That led to a run to the Big 12 championship game, defeating Kansas and Texas Tech before losing to eventual No. 1 seed Houston in the title. Caleb Love leads the way with 16.6 points per contest, followed by former Kentucky target Jaden Bradley (11.8 PPG) and KJ Lewis (10.9 PPG).

5.) Oregon

What do you make of a resume that includes eight Quad 1 wins and zero Quad 3-4 losses — starting with a 9-0 record and 16-3 overall, followed immediately by a five-game losing streak, then an eight-game winning streak all the way through the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals? Dana Altman‘s group has been weird, but they’re capable of making noise, led by Nate Bittle (14.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.2 BPG), Jackson Shelstad (13.2 PPG), TJ Bamba (10.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.9 APG) and Keeshawn Barthelemy (10.1 PPG). Something to keep an eye on? Their top seven scorers have played all 33 games this season. They’re healthy and finished strong.

6.) BYU

Mark Pope’s old friends in Provo are thriving under first-year coach Kevin Young, formerly of the Phoenix Suns. The Cougars had one of the nation’s best offenses to close out the season with All-Big 12 First Team member Richie Saunders — who nearly followed Pope to Lexington — averaging 16.0 points on 51/43/82 shooting splits, followed by future first round draft selection Egor Demin at 10.3 points, 5.4 assists and 3.8 rebounds per contest. They won nine straight before falling to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals.

7.) Saint Mary’s

The Gaels are slow as molasses and not the most exciting offense in the world, but they’re among the best in the country on the other end of the floor, ranked No. 8 in defensive efficiency and No. 14 in effective defensive field goal percentage. Augustas Marciulionis (14.3 PPG, 6.1 APG), Paulius Murauskas (12.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Mitchell Saxen (10.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG) are the names to know here, Saint Mary’s also leading the country in rebounding margin at 10.7.

8.) Mississippi State

The Dentist is dancing for a third consecutive season, Chris Jans leading MSU to a 21-12 mark with the No. 23 offense and No. 47 defense, per KenPom. Josh Hubbard is the star of the show, averaging 18.7 points per game to lead the scoring attack while Cameron Matthews is a do-it-all forward for the Bulldogs, averaging 7.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.5 steals per contest.

9.) Baylor

Scott Drew has not had the year Baylor had in mind, finishing just 19-14 on the year with a 10-10 mark in the Big 12 going into postseason play. Rob Wright, VJ Edgecombe, Jeremy Roach and Norchad Omier are the name-brand talents as the Bears rank No. 16 offensively and No. 58 defensively. Those five Quad 1 wins did most of the heavy lifting to get them in as an at-large, beating Arkansas, St. John’s, Arizona State, Utah and Kansas to get there.

10.) Vanderbilt

Mark Byington may have 18 point guards on the roster, but the analytics don’t love the Commodores. Ranked No. 48 in the NET and No. 49 by KenPom, they’ve got the No. 30 offense nationally, but No. 83 defense with five Quad 1 wins. What put Vandy on the right side of the bubble on Selection Sunday? No Quad 3-4 losses. Jason Edwards could be a March Madness darling, averaging 17.0 points per game and capable of catching fire at any moment.

11.) VCU

One Quad 4 loss really hurt the Rams, but their resume is actually fairly solid elsewhere, going 2-1 in Quad 1 games and 6-4 in Quad 2 matchups. That’s part of the reason Ryan Odom is a hot name on the coaching carousel, namely Virginia. Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile average 15.1 points per game apiece, followed by Phillip Russell with 10.6 PPG and Zeb Jackson with 10.4 PPG. They defeated George Mason to claim the A-10 title.

12.) Liberty

The CUSA winner is led by Taelon Peter (13.9 PPG), Kaden Metheny (13.5 PPG), Zach Cleveland (10.9 PPG) and Isaiah Ihnen (10.4 PPG). The Flames score just 76.6 PPG (No. 102 nationally) but rank No. 10 in the country defensively, allowing just 62.90 PPG. They also rank No. 2 nationally in EFG% and No. 6 in 3PT%, but also No. 3 in defensive 3PT%.

13.) Akron

The Zips won 21 of 22 games to end the season after a run of losing three of four in December and two of three to open the year. John Groce has Akron coming in hot entering the Big Dance, ranked No. 8 nationally in scoring offense.

14.) Montana

The Grizzlies rank No. 2 in the country in field goal percentage and No. 9 in effective field goal percentage, but there isn’t a ton to love from there. Their best win came on the road at Northern Colorado with blowout losses at Oregon (79-48), Tennessee (92-57) and Utah State (95-83). They did win 14 of the last 15, though — 11 of those being Quad 4 wins.

15.) Robert Morris

Good old Bobby Mo went 2-1 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but 23-7 in Quad 3 and 4 games, its best win being at Cornell back in November. Kam Woods (15.1 PPG), Alvaro Folgueiras (14.1 PPG, 9.1 RPG) and Amarion Dickerson (12.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG) are the names to watch here. This run ends a 10-year NCAA Tournament drought.

16.) American

Does Matt Rogers have some magic up his sleeve? He averaged 16.8 PPG and 5.5 RPG en route to All-Patriot League honors, highlighted by a 25-point effort in the conference championship. Just 0-4 in Quad 1 and 2 games and 20-7 in Quad 3 and 4 games (plus 2-0 in non-D1 games), the Eagles are here for vibes.

16.) Mount St. Mary’s

The third-worst team in the field according to the NET, the Mountaineers are ranked No. 33 in field goal defense, No. 59 in rebounding average and No. 52 in 3-point defense. We’ll see if Dola Adebayo (13.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG) can help MSM pull off the unimaginable.

Odds

How does Vegas see this region shaking out? Duke is the overwhelming favorite at FanDuel with Alabama seen as the only real outside threat to head to San Antonio.

If you like anyone else in the region, there is certainly value to be found.

Team	Odds to win the Midwest
Duke	-140
Alabama	+440
Arizona	+800
Wisconsin	+1100
BYU	+2000
Saint Mary’s	+3300
Oregon	+3700
VCU	+3900
Baylor	+4000
Mississippi State	+7500
Vanderbilt	+25000
Mount St. Mary’s	+25000
Montana	+25000
Akron	+25000
Liberty	+25000
American	+25000
Robert Morris	+25000