ESPN's FPI projects Kentucky football's win-loss record for 2023

In less than two weeks, Kentucky football will take the field to kick off the 2023 season. The Wildcats will host Ball State at Kroger Field in Lexington on Saturday, Sept. 2 to get the schedule rolling. But before we reach the season opener, the time between now and then will be used to get off hot take after hot take.

With that in mind, you’ll want to be equipped with as much information as possible to fuel your arguments. One piece of data you should know is what ESPN’s Football Power Index is spitting out. The first FPI rankings — a predictive system that forecasts a team’s season-long results — of the season were unveiled this week. In it, Kentucky checked in at No. 28 overall with a projected average win-loss record of 7.1-4.9.

Kentucky is one of nine SEC programs ranked among the FPI’s top 30. Alabama (No. 2), Georgia (No. 3), and LSU (No. 4) all cracked the top 5 while Tennessee (No. 12), Ole Miss (No. 16), Florida (No. 18), Texas A&M (No. 19), and Arkansas (No. 30) round out the top 30 with UK. Mississippi State just missed the cut at No. 32. Auburn, Missouri, and South Carolina checked in at Nos. 39, 40, and 42, respectively.

Preseason College Football Top 25 according to ESPN’s FPI👀https://t.co/tdJj4YI9Au pic.twitter.com/NxEdxslJTm

— On3 (@On3sports) August 20, 2023

Not only does the FPI project Kentucky’s final record at the end of the season, but it also gives the percentage chance of a win for all 12 regular season games. Here is what the FPI thinks will happen with the Wildcats’ schedule, which it has ranked as the 15th-hardest in the country. Team rankings are according to the FPI

vs. No. 111 Ball State | 91.3% (W)
vs. N/A Eastern Kentucky | 98.5% (W)
vs. No. 128 Akron | 95.8% (W)
@ No. 73 Vanderbilt | 74.4% (W)
vs. No. 18 Florida | 51.3% (W)
@ No. 3 Georgia | 9.7% L
vs. No. 40 Missouri | 65.9% (W)
vs. No. 12 Tennessee | 46.9% (L)
@ No. 32 Mississippi State | 49.3% (L)
vs. No. 2 Alabama | 15.8% (L)
@ No. 42 South Carolina | 53.8% (W)
@ No. 46 Louisville | 57.2% (W)

Interestingly enough, despite the FPI projecting an average win-loss record of 7.1-4.9, the game-by-game numbers predict an eight-win season for Kentucky. The reason? There are four games on the schedule that ESPN says are just a few percentage points from swinging the other way. Home games against Florida and Tennessee plus road games against Mississippi State and South Carolina are all within four percentage points of being flipped to the opposite result.

That’s not all the FPI tells us though. The numbers also project postseason odds. Kentucky has a 0.1 percent chance to go undefeated, a 3.2 percent chance to win the SEC East, a 0.7 percent chance to win the entire conference, and a 0.9 percent chance at making the College Football Playoffs. The FPI is confident UK will hit the six-win threshold too, giving the ‘Cats an 81.9 percent chance to do so.

ESPN’s Top 30 FPI preseason rankings

1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. LSU
5. Texas
6. Michigan
7. Southern California
8. Clemson
9. Notre Dame
10. Penn State
11. Oklahoma
12. Tennessee
13. Oregon
14. Florida State
15. Utah
16. Ole Miss
17. TCU
18. Florida
19. Texas A&M
20. Wisconsin
21. Washington
22. Texas Tech
23. Baylor
24. Oregon State
25. North Carolina
26. Centra Florida
27. Kansas State
28. Kentucky
29. Miami (FL)
30. Arkansas