Fans Back at Keeneland For Fall Stars Weekend

For the first time since the 2019 fall meet, Keeneland is (basically) fully open to fans for their opening Fall Stars Weekend.  Patrons must pre-purchase tickets online (first come, first serve) prior to their arrival and attendance is capped at “around 20,000”, whatever that means.  Regardless, opening day on Friday felt fairly normal, with plenty of fans, but without the shoulder-to-shoulder congestion that can often develop on nicer days.  The first week of the meet is fully loaded with stakes action featuring no less than 10 “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup qualifiers.  

In this space, we’ll take a look at Saturday’s 11 race card with 5 graded stakes through a bit of a different lens than we typically do in this space.  StableDuel is a fantastic new(er) game that blends traditional race handicapping with daily fantasy sports.  Players draft a stable of 10 horses per race card utilizing a pre-determined salary cap with horse prices based on morning line odds.  Points are awarded based on finishing position and margin of victory, or defeat.  It’s a great way for new fans to get into the game as it potentially gives them action in every race on the card for a very low buy-in (StableDuel frequently offers free games with generous prize pools and $10 buy-in games).  For more seasoned horse players, StableDuel offers higher-priced games with much larger win pools – a unique alternative to traditional handicapping tournaments.  Admittedly, I’m still trying to figure out the most appropriate strategy (it’s a tad more complex than, just pick winners) as I’ve only played a handful of times thus far.  A successful stable, just like a successful daily fantasy sports roster, is built by making the most judicious use of available cap space.  We’ll give it our best shot.

One thing you definitely need in your StableDuel stable is winners.  We’ll start there.  A deep and talented field of 13 awaits Althiqa in the the Grade 1 First Lady (race 8), but she still seems a likely winner offering decent value ($7,500 of the $50,000 allocation).  The daughter of Dark Angel was a winner in both her previous stateside starts this term – the Grade 1 Just A Game at Belmont and the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga.  She always seemed to have the measure of her rivals in those two contests and must be considered the division leader based on those efforts. 

Bell’s the One hit the board in 5 of her six prior starts at Keeneland with two wins.  She’s been training like a rocket ship for this engagement and should get the heated pace she needs to set up her late run.  At $9,600, she’ll eat up almost 20% of the cap, but may well be the most likely winner on the card in the Thoroughbred Club of America (race 7).

Order of Australia won the Breeders’ Cup Mile over this same turf course last November, despite a less than ideal trip.  His European campaign this year has been solid, not spectacular.  He seems to do his best running over firmer turf courses, but ought to handle the going around the Keeneland green just fine.  The field he’ll face in the Keeneland Turf Mile (race 10) is not quite as tough as what he faced a year ago.  He appears to offer fair value at $7,500.

Golden Pal might be the most likely winner of the Woodford Stakes (race 6), but Extravagant Kid potentially offers a bit more value at $8,500 versus the $11,000 for Wesley Ward’s aforementioned Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner.  Johnny Unleashed and Firecrow may provide just enough pressure on Golden Pal up front to make Extravagant Kid’s late running style the preferred strategy in this event.

Having blown through over $33,000 of the $50,000 bankroll on our first four selections, it’s time for bargain shopping.  The remaining budget should be focused on horses with a legitimate shot to win, or hit the board and score points, but also focus on horses unlikely to lose by wide margins.  Significant losing margins subtract points from the stable, erasing gains made by point earners.  It may be wise to avoid inexperienced runners and main track route races (with long shot plays) as they can often produce lopsided margins of victory.  

We’ll begin by going back to the First Lady (race 8) and drafting Empress Josephine, an impeccably bred daughter of Galileo for the Coolmore team.  She’s a grade 1 winner of the Irish 1,000 Guineas with solid European form.  In addition, turf races often result in blanket finishes, so hopefully that will help alleviate the possibility of a wide margin defeat that could deduct points from other winners in the stable.

In Love is the winner of two in a row, including a strong 99 Beyer in his TVG Mile victory at Kentucky Downs last out, and he’ll only cost us $250 in the Keeneland Turf Mile (race 10).

King Curlin ran credibly in his debut over the lawn at Kentucky Downs.  Trainer Brittany Vanden Berg is winning at a 32% clip this year and at 30% with runners moving from turf to dirt.  That seems like enough reason to risk just $50 of cap space on this colt bred to run two turns (in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, race 9), by Curlin out of an Arch mare.

Those 3 bargain buys (we hope) have created enough cap space to allow for $5,200 per purchase on the last 3 horses to fill out our stable.  We’ll go right back to the Breeders’ Futurity (race 9) and select Classic Causeway for $6,000.  His winning Saratoga debut was quite impressive, going gate-to-wire and pulling away through the stretch to win by 6 ½ lengths.  The son of Giant’s Causeway may well have lost this race at the post draw, but he appears to have ample speed to commandeer decent position prior to the first turn.  If he can replicate his maiden win around a second turn, he could put up some big points in an open length victory.

Elusive Target (race 4) was runner-up in a stake at Praire Meadows last time out.  Both the winner and 3^rd place finisher from that race won their next starts.  His sire Gun Runner is off to a blazing start at stud, and this colt is bred to handle a second turn.  He’s fair value at $6,000.

Against better judgment, we’ll go back to the First Lady (race 8) yet again for our final selection.  Blowout could potentially get real comfortable out front and take this field gate to wire.  If not, she rarely finishes more than a length or two back, so it would be a surprise if her selection resulted in negative points.  

That’s my stable for StableDuel Keeneland Fall Stars Saturday.  Best of luck with yours.  Happy wagering!