Field of 68 Projection: How the committee will slot the top 16

Selection Sunday is just over three weeks away, and bracketologists all over the internet are not getting much sleep. Resumes are being compared and bubbles are bursting throughout the college basketball landscape. For Kentucky, John Calipari’s squad is firmly in the hunt for a No. 1 seed.

On Saturday, CBS will host the selection committee, and the public will get to view how the top 16 teams sit going into the second to last weekend in February. The peek behind the curtain will allow us to see how correct certain bracketologists are and just how much work Kentucky needs to get done before Selection Sunday arrives.

The show will begin at 12:30 p.m. ET, but before that arrives KSR is going to jump in on the action. After spending this week building a spreadsheet filled with number crunching and resume comparing, we have put together a list of 16 teams and are projecting this is what we will see on CBS.

Top 16

1. Gonzaga (West)
2. Auburn (South)
3. Arizona (Midwest)
4. Kansas (East)
5. Purdue (East)
6. Baylor (South)
7. Kentucky (Midwest)
8. Villanova (West)
9. Texas Tech (West)
10. Duke (South)
11. Tennessee (East)
12. Texas (Midwest)
13. Houston (East)
14. Illinois (Midwest)
15. UCLA (West)
16. Wisconsin (South)

There she is in all of her glory. For those curious, here were the next five: LSU, Ohio State, Providence, Alabama, and UConn. Kentucky checks in with a two-seed and would have to go through Indianapolis and Chicago to get to the Final Four. Not the worst draw for John Calipari’s Wildcats.

Now let’s break down how each region sits.

Gonzaga has path to third Final Four in five years

For this exercise, we’re just going to pretend the 2020 season did not happen. Mark Few’s program made it all the way to the national championship game in 2017 and accomplished that same feat in 2021. The Bulldogs are the clear No. 1 team in college basketball and will be a heavy favorite to make it to New Orleans for the Final Four.

After traveling to Portland, Gonzaga will draw UCLA for a regular-season rematch unless five-seed Ohio State makes a push. In the Elite Eight, a contest between Villanova or Texas Tech would likely get Few’s ballclub in the Elite Eight. Back in 2019, the Red Raiders knocked off Gonzaga to go to the Final Four.

Chet Holmgren and the Bulldogs could have their own revenge tour in San Francisco.

Auburn gets tough draw in the South

Auburn basketball is having a historical season, and the Tigers are well on their way to earning a No. 1 seed. This year the South region is in San Antonio and the closest first weekend pod is in South Carolina. The War Eagle supporters will need to do some traveling and will face some stiff competition.

Baylor gets a great draw here as the No. 2 seed making the short drive to Waco. Meanwhile, a talented Duke team is the No. 3 seed, and methodical Wisconsin could give Auburn fits with its style of play.

Midwest is stacked

Any other season and Arizona would be set. The Wildcats are legitimate national championship contenders in year one under Tommy Lloyd, but Gonzaga has been a bulldozer. That means the Wildcats have to travel to the next closest destination and that would be Chicago.

Once there, some big fan bases will be ready to travel to support their teams.

Illinois as the No. 4 seed would be the worst-case scenario for the Pac-12 team as the Illini faithful would likely pack out the United Center. In the bottom of the bracket, Kentucky and Texas would be a fascinating Sweet 16 draw.

The Midwest sets up to be the most exciting region.

East has blend of offense and defense

Thanks to some recent losses by Kentucky and Purdue, Kansas currently owns the last No. 1 seed for now. The Jayhawks appear to have a pretty decent draw, but the matchups are enticing.

Top seeds Kansas and Purdue are both elite on offense with some legitimate flaws on defense. Both Houston and Tennessee play great defense but have moments with some struggles on the offensive end.

The matchups are great in Philadelphia.

Bracket notes

• Gonzaga, Auburn, and Arizona all feel like safe bets at the moment to be No. 1 seeds. However, we’re splitting hairs with the next four teams. Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky, and Purdue all have a case and will be fighting tooth and nail as the season ends. Currently, UK has an inferior Quadrant 1 record and that is why the Wildcats sit at No. 7 overall currently.
• Seeding Houston was not easy. Kelvin Sampson’s team is No. 4 in NET and No. 7 in KenPom but own zero Quadrant 1 wins. The Cougars don’t have a bad loss, but its No. 103 strength of schedule really doesn’t help things much. With no bad losses, Houston deserved a top-16 seed and we settled at No. 13 overall thanks to the very high metrics.
• Last four in: Creighton, Kansas State, Belmont, and Kansas State.
• First four out: Oklahoma, VCU, Memphis, and Rutgers
• The SEC has six of the top-25 teams, but the league got no other teams in the tournament. That adds up when you look up the conference standings and see how top-heavy they are. The conference tournament in Tampa should be excellent.