First Down Kentucky: Numbers Say the Vanderbilt Victory over Alabama was a Fluke

There’s a familiar refrain among talking heads around the college football world following Vanderbilt’s victory over Alabama. “Vanderbilt didn’t get lucky. This wasn’t a fluky win. They went toe-to-toe and beat Bama.” While it may look like it on the scoreboard, the numbers tell a different story.

Postgame Win Expectancy (PWE) is a tool that measures the statistics from a specific game and asks the question, “If this game were to be played multiple times with the same numbers, who would win?” In other words, this tool can help a fan understand whether or not their team played well enough to win a game they lost. To be candid, I don’t know exactly how the PWE algorithm works, but it’s a good tool to measure the process of an individual game vs. the result.

Vanderbilt had a 1.8% Postgame Win Expectancy against Alabama. For comparison’s sake, Kentucky had a 43.8% PWE in the one-point loss to Georgia.

Why was the PWE so low for Vanderbilt? Alabama outgained the Commodores by 72 yards. They damn near scored one point per play (35 points on 46 snaps). Vanderbilt won the game by winning the turnover battle 2-0. The Commodores turned those takeaways into 14 points, then played keep-away from the Crimson Tide.

Vanderbilt deserves all the credit in the world for knocking off the No. 1 team in the country. The final score is the only stat that really matters. But when handicapping Saturday’s matchup against Kentucky, don’t be fooled by what happened a week ago. Things are never as bad as they seem, or as good as they seem.

Kentucky Defense Ready to Answer Questions

All of the aforementioned talk about Vanderbilt’s greatness has made its way to the Joe Craft Football Training Facility. The Wildcats, particularly the defense, are ready to silence all of that talk. It’s not something they haven’t already done a time or two this season.

“When people say you have a top defense in the country, why not have a challenge? Just to keep proving ourselves right,” said Jamon Dumas-Johnson. “I think it’s a good week to be challenged, conquer the challenge, and see what our dudes are really made of.”

Got thoughts? Take advantage of our FLASH SALE and continue the conversation on KSBoard, the KSR Message Board. Use the promo code JOIN50 for 50% off the annual price.

Kentucky is Hosting a Visitor

No, I’m not talking about an official visitor, although the Wildcats will have one of those when Montavin Quisenberry spends his weekend in Lexington. The CFB Campus Tour is trying to visit 100 college football games this fall. Last year he attended a record 90 games in one season. To reach 100, he must go to great lengths and this week’s tour includes seven games, two of which are in the Commonwealth. He’ll be in Morehead in the afternoon, followed by a trip to Kroger Field.

SEVEN GAMES IN ONE WEEK pic.twitter.com/k50WrVztTz

— College Football Campus Tour (@cfbcampustour) October 7, 2024

An Insane Ashton Jeanty Stat

If you haven’t been paying attention, Bush Hamdan’s old running back is kicking all kinds of ass for Boise State. Ashton Jeanty is in the middle of the Heisman Trophy conversation because he is putting up numbers that running backs aren’t supposed to put up in 2024.

With more than half of a season still to play, Jeanty is already a 1,000-yard rusher with 16 touchdowns. That’s not what had people talking on the internet this week. Alex Kirshner dug into the data and discovered that when opponents try to load the box with eight defenders, Jeanty is still averaging 8.9 yards per carry.

He’s picking up a first down every time he touches the ball (10.85 yards per carry). If you want to bet him as an Anytime TD Scorer this weekend against Utah State, you’re only getting -6600 odds. It’s truly incredible what Jeanty is doing on the Boise blue turf.