First Four 101: Trends You Didn't Know About the NCAA Tournament Opener

While your bracket pools will remain open until Thursday at Noon, the NCAA Tournament tips off on Tuesday in Dayton. The First Four is merely a footnote for some, but over the years, it has produced sensational games and a few Final Four participants. After pouring over this piece, you’ll understand why you do not need to diminish the event.

The Conference that Started it All

The First Four did not begin in its current format until 2011, but it all started back in 2001. That’s when the Mountain West Conference was created. The winner of the league’s conference tournament was awarded an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, but officials did not want to remove any at at-large bids from the field. To accommodate, NCAA officials created one play-in game for No. 16 seeds.

The first opening round game featured a familiar face. Rick Pitino had a little extra free time two months after resigning as the Boston Celtics head coach. He joined Tim Brando to broadcast a 71-67 Northwestern State victory over Winthrop.

The Mountain West created a crack, ultimately inspiring executives to expand to 68 teams for the 2011 NCAA Tournament. The First Four features games between the four lowest-ranked conference champs and the four lowest-ranked at-large bids.

First Four Teams Win First Round Games

The First Four has been around for 13 editions of March Madness. The 2019 NCAA Tournament was the only year a team from the First Four did not advance to at least the round of 32. One of those winners was a No. 16 seed. Fairleigh-Dickinson head coach Tobin Anderson told his team in the Dayton locker room, “I want Purdue to see this,” Anderson told his team. “The more I watch Purdue, the more I think we can beat them. Let’s go shock the world.” They proceeded to shock the world and knock off top-seed Purdue.

Five First Four teams have advanced to the Sweet 16 and two have made it to the Final Four. Shaka Smart’s 2011 VCU team took down No. 1 seed Kansas to reach the Final Four, where they lost to UConn. Mick Cronin’s second UCLA squad caught fire in the pandemic-plagued NCAA Tournament that moved the entire event to the state of Indiana. Johnny Juzang, Tyger Campbell, and Jaime Jacquez fell to Gonzaga when Jalen Suggs banked in a game-winning three in overtime of the Final Four.

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Expect Two Close Games

It feels like every year, we get a pair of close games and two blowouts. The data backs up this anecdotal evidence.

At least one First Four game has gone into overtime in three of the last four years. UCLA needed overtime to outlast Michigan State before making a run to the Final Four. After Notre Dame’s double-overtime victory over Rutgers ended after midnight on St. Patrick’s Day, Mike Brey was ready to celebrate with some Irish whiskey on St. Patrick’s Day.

There has yet to be a year where all of the First Four games were decided by double digits. Some years are closer than others, but on an average, we’ll get at least two close games over the next two days.

First Four Gambling Trends

Slow Starts: It’s quick turnaround for many of these teams in Dayton. It takes some time to knock off the rust. Since 2018, first half unders are cashing at a 55% rate in the First Four and round of 64.

Fade the Public: According to Action Network, the public is 22-29 ATS in the First Four and has been below .500 in 9 of the 13 NCAA Tournaments. Here’s who the public is backing this year:

Alabama State (-3.5): 59% of ATS bets
North Carolina (-4.5): 67% of ATS bets
Mount Saint Mary’s (+2.5): 53% of ATS bets
Texas (+2.5): 60% of ATS bets and 65% of moneyline wagers

The Schedule

Tuesday

• (16) Alabama State vs. (16) Saint Francis, 6:40 p.m. | truTV
• (11) San Diego State vs. (11) North Carolina, 9:10 p.m. | truTV

Wednesday

• (16) American University vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s, 6:40 p.m. | truTV
• (11) Texas vs. (11) Xavier, 9:10 p.m. | truTV