First Round Upsets Can Turn Into Final Four Runs the Following Year

The sting of a first round upset can serve as the precursor to salvation in March. History tells us that Kentucky’s loss to Saint Peter’s could be the beginning of the end for John Calipari’s historic run at Kentucky, or the first chapter of an amazing story.

First Round Loss to Title Turnaround

This story starts with the greatest one-season turnaround in college basketball history. Virginia became the first No. 1 seed to ever lose to a No. 16 seed. Just a little over a year after falling to the UMBC Terriers, Virginia won the 2019 National Championship. The Cavaliers pulled off the feat by keeping Tony Bennett’s nucleus of players together to receive some vengeance from the embarrassing loss.

Sadly, Duke is an example that gives the BBN another reason to be optimistic for a 2023 turnaround. The Blue Devils were upset by No. 14 seed Mercer in the 2014 NCAA Tournament, then returned the following year to steal a National Title from UK’s grasp. Coach K also took an L to No. 15 seed Lehigh in 2012, then went to the Elite Eight the following year.

Two other blue bloods did not turn their first round upset into a title, but they did make it to a Final Four the following year. Steve Nash’s Santa Clara squad became just the second No. 15 seed to win an NCAA Tournament game when they knocked out Arizona in 1993. The following year they lost to Arkansas in the Final Four. In 1999 Harold “The Show” Arceneaux scored 26 points for Weber State to eliminate Jerry Stackhouse and Antawn Jamison in the NCAA Tournament. Bill Guthridge made up for that mistake in 2000 by taking North Carolina to its second Final Four in three years. Kansas’ Bill Self did not make it to a Final Four right away, but he did turn a 2006 loss to Bradley into an Elite Eight, then a National Title in 2008.

First Round Upsets Lead to Disaster

Not every major upset has a heart-warming ending. Sometimes that loss is just the beginning of the end. Of the previous nine No. 2 seeds to lose in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, only two made it to the second weekend of the tournament the following year.

Eddie Fogler had South Carolina rocking in the mid-90s, earning a No. 2 and No. 3 seed in consecutive years. He never won an NCAA Tournament game and was run out of town three years later. Similarly, Larry Eustachy only lasted two more seasons at Iowa State after the Cyclones were upset as a No. 2 seed. Frank Haith took a once proud Missouri basketball program and torpedoed it into the ground, terminated after only three seasons in Columbia. John Thompson III appeared to have brought Georgetown back to the forefront of the college basketball world when they reached the 2007 Final Four. The Hoyas only went to one more NCAA Tournament under Thompson III after Dunk City sent Georgetown packing in 2013.

YEAR	RESULT	SCORE	Following Year
1991	Richmond def. Syracuse	73-69	Second Round
1993	Santa Clara def. Arizona	64-61	Final Four
1997	Coppin State def. South Carolina	78-65	First Round
2001	Hampton def. Iowa State	58-57	Missed Field
2012	Lehigh def. Duke	75-70	Elite Eight
2012	Norfolk State def. Missouri	86-84	First Round
2013	Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown	78-68	Missed Field
2016	Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State	90-81	Second Round
2021	Oral Roberts def. Ohio State	75-72	Second Round
2022	Saint Peter’s def. Kentucky	85-79	????

If you believe that history repeats itself, you can look at this data in one of two different ways. A pessimist is prepared to see John Calipari depart after another season or two. An optimist would not put the Hall of Famer in the same company as Frank Haith and Larry Eustachy, keeping hope alive for a dramatic turnaround in 2023 that ends with the Wildcats cutting down the nets in Houston.