Five reasons why Kentucky will beat Louisville (again)

For the first time in the history of the rivalry, Kentucky and Louisville will be bringing new head coaches to the table. Mark Pope is now leading the blue and white while Pat Kelsey is leading the red and black — breaths of fresh air for two programs that desperately needed them. The Wildcats are off to a 9-1 start with a pair of top-10 victories over No. 6 Duke and No. 7 Gonzaga and a loss at Clemson while the Cardinals are 6-4 with wins over No. 14 Indiana and West Virginia among high-major competition and losses to No. 12 Tennessee, Oklahoma, No. 23 Ole Miss and No. 9 Duke.

All of that is thrown out when the ball is tipped, though. It’s a one-of-a-kind rivalry that is often imitated, but never duplicated. When emotions of this magnitude are involved, anything can happen.

Fortunately for us, though, the historic data heavily favors the Cats going into this one. The good guys in blue and white lead the all-time series 39-17 and the modern series (since 1982-83) 30-14 — including wins in 16 of the last 21. Just looking at matchups in Lexington, the Cards haven’t left Rupp Arena with a win since 2008.

Here are five reasons that trend will continue on Saturday.

Louisville is seriously shorthanded

There is no bigger takeaway when talking about Kelsey’s squad at this point in the season than the Cardinals’ health. Losing two starters in Aboubacar Traore (broken arm) and Kasean Pryor (torn ACL) along with a key backup guard in Koren Johnson (shoulder surgery), the team is down to just eight available scholarship players going into the 11th game of the season. The first-year head coach has openly discussed the possibility of adding help at the semester break because of how shorthanded they are with no real answers beyond a mid-year signing or two.

As for Kentucky, depth is the team’s biggest strength with nine players averaging at least 12.9 minutes per game and another adding 8.2 minutes per contest. Kerr Kriisa is out for several weeks with a broken foot and Lamont Butler is working his way back from an ankle injury, but Kelsey would undoubtedly trade spots with Pope in terms of team health if he could.

As the Cats come in waves, the Cards are splashing ankles at the shore.

Kentucky has a talent advantage at all five positions (if Lamont Butler plays)

The depth and talent issues go hand in hand for Louisville. Down two starters, you’d be hard-pressed to find many positional advantages, if any. Chucky Hepburn is a very good player, averaging a team-high 14.1 points, 4.8 assists and 3.2 steals as the straw that stirs the drink for the Cards. Terrence Edwards Jr. — the guy who transferred to UofL just to play UK — is a talented piece, as well, who recently dropped 21 points on Duke as the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year. Charleston transfer Reyne Smith is also just about the only competent shooter on the roster averaging 12.1 points on 37.1 percent from three. The team as a whole is shooting just 27.0 percent from the perimeter, good for No. 344 nationally.

Oof.

For Louisville’s three active scholarship players averaging double figures, Kentucky has six. This isn’t meant to be a shot at the Cardinals — I actually have a ton of respect for Kelsey and think the future of the program is in excellent hands — but this group in particular is a less-talented, worse-shooting version of the Wildcats.

Hepburn could cause problems if Butler can’t give it a go, but even still, it’s wishful thinking when factoring in total personnel. There are just too many advantages — Otega Oweh over Terrence Edwards Jr., Jaxson Robinson over Reyne Smith, Andrew Carr over Noah Waterman or J’Vonne Hadley, Amari Williams over James Scott, etc. — when comparing playing styles and roles. If Butler can go, I’m taking the reigning two-time Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year anyway.

Prior experience against Pat Kelsey

Kelsey and Pope share similar playing styles with an average possession length difference of 1.1 seconds favoring the latter with Kentucky boasting a faster tempo — both prioritizing positional versatility, spacing and shot volume. It’s the first head-to-head matchup for the coaches, but a couple of Wildcats have prior experience against Louisville’s head coach during his time at Charleston. In fact, Andrew Carr and Amari Williams have combined for six games vs. Kelsey from 2021-24.

Williams was a star in the matchup at Drexel, averaging 15.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.8 blocks while shooting 53.5 percent from the field across four individual contests. As for Carr at Delaware, he went for 10 points, three rebounds and four blocks in one and two points, four rebounds, three blocks, one assist and one steal in the other.

Kentucky has major upgrades in the frontcourt and both guys are plenty familiar with Kelsey.

Noah Waterman and Aly Khalifa are undercover spies

It was a mixed portal bag for BYU following Pope’s departure to Kentucky. Fousseyni Traore, Dallin Hall, Trevin Knell, Trey Stewart and Townsend Tripple are all holdovers while Richie Saunders visited Kentucky and nearly followed Pope to Lexington before ultimately returning to Provo. Jaxson Robinson did join, as did Collin Chandler, while two others opted to explore their transfer options and wound up picking a new school and coach entirely.

That school and coach happened to be Louisville and Pat Kelsey with Aly Khalifa and Noah Waterman trading out blue for red. They say you either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain, and those two somehow chose the latter.

The only explanation? It’s an inside job, just as it was when Kenny Payne returned to single-handily destroy the Louisville program in two seasons as head coach. Waterman is doing it by starting his time as a Cardinal shooting career-lows overall (32.9 FG%), from three (22.0 3P%) and at the line (31.3 FT%) while Khalifa underwent season-ending knee surgery immediately upon joining the program and is redshirting.

Their next task? Share all of Kelsey’s deepest, darkest game-planning secrets ahead of tip-off. It’s the least they can do.

Rupp Arena for the first true road game is a tall task

Louisville has not won at Kentucky since January 5, 2008 — 6,188 days since the Cards won 89-75 inside Rupp Arena way back when. Think of how much your life has changed in those 17 years and the generations of this rivalry that have passed since UofL earned its last win in Lexington. Now consider that this is the team’s first true road game of the season with its lone trip away from home being the holiday event in the Bahamas back in November. Outside of that, it’s been nothing but the KFC Yum! Center.

Oh, and of those home games, no crowd has exceeded 17K fans in a venue that holds 22K strong — and that’s just announced attendance. The pictures and videos have reflected poor turnouts all season, hence the Planet Fitness and UPS giveaways earlier in the year with Kelsey begging fans to show up against ranked competition.

• 12,490 vs. Morehead State
• 16,976 vs. Tennessee
• 12,220 vs. Bellarmine
• 12,462 vs. Winthrop
• 12,729 vs. Ole Miss
• 15,312 vs. Duke
• 11,668 vs. UTEP

Meanwhile, the crowds at Rupp Arena have been at or near capacity every game, no matter the competition. Fan excitement has been at an all-time high and it’s about to go to another level on Saturday with the Cards in town.

Are they ready for it? Quite the wake-up call, if you ask me.