FiveThirtyEight gives Kentucky a 5 percent chance of making the Playoff

Let’s talk about 5 percent.

It’s 0.05. It’s 5 out of 100. Reduced to its lowest form, it’s 1 out of 20 or 1/20.

Some of you may associate 5 percent with how much booze is in each Budweiser or how much cash you get back on your credit card for pharmacy purchases this month. This is random, did you know only 5 percent of all babies are born on their due date? 5 percent of all babies have hazel eyes too.

Sports fans may associate 5 percent with Anthony Davis’ career block percentage or the chances Ben Simmons makes a free throw. I think it was even Tom Crean’s record in the SEC at one point. Here in the Bluegrass, we can now associate 5 percent with KENTUCKY FOOTBALL’S CHANCES OF MAKING THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF.

Now that we’ve driven home what 5 percent looks like, get excited knowing the mathematical systems over at FiveThirtyEight.com now give Kentucky a 5 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff. Only Georgia and Alabama have a better shot from the SEC at this stage in the season, according to the math. Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky–the powers of the SEC, says math.

If you think this is crazy talk, read how FiveThirtyEight came up with its forecast:

FiveThirtyEight.com

How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning. (Before Nov. 2, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. Every forecast update is based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.

– FiveThirtyEight.com

Who are we to question that system, that formula, that math?

Unfortunately, Kentucky’s odds of actually winning the CFP are still in the zero range, and FiveThirtyEight gives only a 2 percent chance of winning the Southeastern Conference.

But that 5 percent to be in the Playoff, we’ll take it.

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance.” – Lloyd Christmas