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FiveThirtyEight ranks the impact each All-Star

by:Caleb Epley02/14/16

@CalebEpleyKSR

davis-wall In case you haven't heard, the NBA All-Star Game is tonight. Unlike Louisville, Duke, Indiana, Kansas, or North Carolina, Kentucky will actually have some representatives this evening. In fact, UK's three All-Stars are the most from any college - a trend that should continue for the next several years. To get a gauge of how important each All-Star is to his team, FiveThirtyEight's Benjamin Morris rated each player by his impact. The method he uses is a little confusing, but it essentially compares each player's effect on his team's points per possession with the team's next-best player. Here are the conclusions he reaches for each of UK's All-Star representatives: 11. John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards (Coaches)
RPM 3.09, RPM Wins: +7.1 Compared to: Jared Dudley Wizards with both: +2.3 | Wall alone: -5.1 | Dudley alone: -10.3 | Neither: -8.6 Two-way WOWY impact: +8.0 points per 100 possessions The rest of Wall’s Washington Wizards are so bad that 30-year-old journeyman Jared Dudley – who plays fewer than 30 minutes a game and averages 9 points – emerged as his most significant teammate by RPM. Although the Wizards are a losing squad, they consistently do better with Wall on the floor.

10. Anthony Davis, PF, New Orleans Pelicans (Coaches)

RPM 2.66, RPM Wins: +5.8 Compared to: Jrue Holiday Pelicans with both: +2.7 | Davis alone: -8.7 | Holiday alone: -6.1 | Neither: -17.4 Two-way WOWY impact: +8.7 points per 100 possessions The Pelicans have disappointed this year, causing many to question whether Davis is actually the basketball revolution that he seemed to be a year or so ago. Yet they are a winning squad with him and point guard Jrue Holiday on the floor, and a comically terrible -17 points per 100 with neither of them.

7. DeMarcus Cousins, Center, Sacramento Kings (Coaches)

RPM 6.66, RPM Wins: +9.2 Compared to: Omri Casspi Kings with both: +7.4 | Cousins alone: -3.7 | Casspi alone: -5.1 | Neither: -13.2 Two-way WOWY impact: +11.0 points per 100 possessions Cousins has been a real headline-maker this year, yet his ball-demanding, trail-three-popping style has been one of the great statistical success stories amid all the chaos in Sacramento. Yet it’s worth noting that Omri Casspi – despite playing fewer minutes and having a less-eye-catching statistical and/or public profile, has had a similarly strong effect. With both of them on the floor, Sacramento looks like a strong team.
So, in rating the impact of each All-Star, Wall, Davis, and Cousins are all among the upper end of the distribution. Given that each player is on a rather bad squad, this conclusion doesn't seem too surprising. As always, advanced stats are never the know-all/ end-all in calculating a player's value. But, they still give a pretty good picture.

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2024-11-07