Florida is one of the nation's best rebounding teams -- Kentucky is not

Don’t sleep on the 10-3 Florida Gators. Don’t get distracted by the sell-out crowd expected in Gainesville or the “orange-out” free t-shirt bit. Florida is a legitimately good team on the floor that can beat Kentucky if the Wildcats aren’t prepared for the challenge. There’s a good reason why the analytical projections predict this one to be close.

What Florida does better than nearly any other team in the country is rebound the basketball, particularly on the offensive end. The Gators rank fifth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing 41.3 percent of its misses, per KenPom. Florida leads the entire Southeastern Conference in overall rebounds at 45.4 per outing. They have four bigs standing 6-foot-9 or taller, all averaging more than 16 minutes and 4.6 rebounds per contest

Only once has Florida been outrebounded this season. Pittsburgh grabbed 42 boards compared to the Gators’ 35. Florida still won that game by 15 points.

On the flip side, attacking the glass has not been a strength of the Wildcats so far. Kentucky ranks 230th in the country in offensive rebounding rate (27.9 percent) and is sixth in the SEC in overall rebounds per game at 38.3. UK isn’t a bad rebounding team by any means, but it’s certainly not a good one. Some of that has been a lack of seven-footers up until late, but even with Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Oyenso in the rotation, the numbers haven’t changed enough to indicate a trend.

Kentucky was allowing 33.5 rebounds per game while grabbing 34.9 of its own through the first nine games of the season. With Bradshaw playing the last four, those numbers moved to 32.3 rebounds allowed (-1.2) and 36.0 rebounds grabbed per game (+1.1). A small shift in the right direction, but not significant.

But here’s the stat I’m paying attention to: Kentucky is just 2-2 this season when the opponent comes down with at least 35 rebounds and is undefeated at 8-0 when holding opponents under that number. Kansas won the rebounding battle 44-39 and UNC-Wilmington won it 37-36. Even in the overtime win over Saint Joseph’s, UK was outrebounded 39-32. In the eight games Kentucky has won while keeping opponents under 35 rebounds, the Wildcats also won the battle on the glass seven times.

If we’re using that 35 rebound mark as the bar of success for Kentucky, I’ll note that Florida has only failed to reach that number one time this season (33), an 81-72 loss to Wake Forest.

Obviously, there is more to this matchup than just rebounding. Kentucky is still the superior team in most categories. The talent level on the Wildcats’ bench is a tier above Florida. But being steady on the glass was a particularly bad problem in the most recent win over Illinois State. UK gave up 24 offensive rebounds to the Redbirds. It was such an eye-popping stat that head coach John Calipari said afterward “If you’re not going to rebound, I’m not going to play you.”

When Kentucky takes on Florida this Saturday, it’ll mark the end of an eight-day break in between games for the ‘Cats. Rebounding was Calipari’s biggest worry last week. He’s had plenty of time since then to preach the importance of being active on the glass. He surely knows just how good Florida is at rebounding, too.

A good effort on the boards for Kentucky will likely lead to a comfortable win. Anything short of that could open the door for Florida to pull off an upset.