From Rupp to Pope: Donkeys don't win the Derby, but favorites don't necessarily win it either

When Kentucky hired John Calipari in 2009, the late, great Mike Pratt evoked the words of a legend when discussing the art of roster construction. “My old coach, Adolph Rupp, used to say, ‘Boys, donkeys don’t win the Derby.’” The phrase, of course, is meant to convey that in order to win at the highest level, you need the best talent. When it comes to basketball, all the Xs and Os in the world are only going to get you so far with donkeys on your roster. That’s why Mark Pope has been recruiting thoroughbreds, but not necessarily the ones studded by former Derby winners that Wildcat fans have grown accustomed to seeing.

After all, many times, it is that horse with middle-range odds (a 4-star horse, if you will), who wins the Run for the Roses.

Look, no one is going to out-recruit John Calipari when it comes to elite high school talent. The Cal brand of getting guys into the NBA is unmatched, and it is why KSR needs a slew of interns dedicated to recapping how all of the former Kentucky guys in the NBA played every night. However, in the era of the transfer portal, bringing in five or six top-tier freshmen is shaping up to be an aging philosophy.

Instead of a smorgasbord of five-star freshmen talent, the teams with the most success in the last few years have been a good mix of dependable, skilled, experienced players with a superstar or two sprinkled in.

Blind Roster Comparison

Removing the names, here are two teams’ rosters. Evaluate the players’ class, star rating in high school, whether they were a transfer or recruit, and see how they stack up.

Team A			Team B
Class	Ranking in HS	Type	Class	Ranking in HS	Type
Super Senior	Three Star	Transfer	Super Senior	Unranked	Transfer
Super Senior	Three Star	Transfer	Super Senior	Unranked	Transfer
Super Senior	Unranked	Transfer	Senior	Four Star	Transfer
Super Senior	Unranked	Transfer	Junior	Four Star	Recruit
Super Senior	International	Transfer	Sophomore	Four Star	Recruit
Junior	Four Star	Transfer	Sophomore	Four Star	Recruit
Sophomore	Four Star	Transfer	Freshman	Five Star	Recruit
Freshman	Four Star	Recruit	Freshman	Four Star	Recruit
Freshman	Four Star	Recruit	Freshman	Four Star	Recruit

Have you guessed the teams yet?

Team A is the current configuration of Mark Pope’s Kentucky basketball team for next year and Team B is UConn’s national championship team from this past season. Sure, UConn had one five-star lottery pick freshman (Stephon Castle), but other than that, there is a lot of overlap in résumés.

Another player that Kentucky is rumored to be getting, Jaxson Robinson, isn’t even represented in the table. If Pope were to add him, that would be another Super Senior who was a four-star recruit out of high school.

Big Blue Nation must recalibrate their thinking

After 15 years of Calipari, everyone is going to have to tweak the assessment settings in their brains when it comes to what to expect and hope for in a roster. Last year, The Wildcats’ rotation featured four 5-star freshmen, one four-star freshman, one 3-star sophomore, a 4-star super senior, and an unranked super senior transfer. For better or worse, those days are over.

One the surface, it might sting. Kentucky has been first or second in recruiting every year since 2009, an uncanny stat, and yet, Blue Nation became numb to it. Now, Pope will take a different approach to roster building, and the good thing is his alternate plan of attack has shown to be the recipe for success recently at other schools.

Essentially, instead of blindly betting on the favorite every year at the Kentucky Derby, Big Blue Nation will have to trust Pope to dissect the racing form and pick the 10-1 horse best suited to win under today’s conditions.

Can he do it? Of course. He is proving himself quite the handicapper in his first few weeks on the job.

In light of this, when it comes to the actual Kentucky Derby, my money is on the 4-star transfer from Japan, Forever Young.