What we know heading into Gator Bowl

Kentucky is looking to end a rocky season on a high note in the Gator Bowl after a big win on rivalry weekend. Clemson is looking to end a rocky season on a high note in the Gator Bowl after a strong close in November. The goal in Jacksonville is the same for both the Wildcats and Tigers.

Believe it or not, game week officially arrived on Christmas with Kentucky bolting Lexington for the Sunshine State. After a busy couple of weeks in December closing on the 2024 high school recruiting class and working the transfer portal, Kentucky is now all-in on bowl prep at the hosting site. It’s time to get ready for a significant postseason game for the program.

To kickoff our coverage from Jacksonville this week, let’s take a look back at what we know about this matchup before toe meets leather at high noon on Friday at EverBank Stadium.

Kentucky is excited for this opportunity

Clemson has seen three defensive starters opt-out for the Gator Bowl to begin draft prep. Starting safety Andrew Mukuba entered the transfer portal and ultimately landed at Texas. The same was true for reserve cornerback Toriano Pride (Missouri) and starting wide receiver Beaux Collins (Notre Dame). The Tigers will be short-handed this postseason.

The same is not true for Kentucky.

Underclassmen Andru Phillips and Trevin Wallace have each declared for the draft. Both will be playing on Friday. Star tailback Ray Davis has announced that he will suit up one more time. Kentucky will also have starting quarterback Devin Leary before he heads to the Shrine Bowl. That’s not the only good news this program has gotten leading up to this game.

JuTahn McClain entered the transfer portal but is still going to play. Jordan Dingle withdrew from the transfer portal and will be playing for Kentucky this weekend. The Wildcats appear to be all-in for this postseason opportunity.

Many times in bowl games in the current landscape, the “who care about this game the most” meter can tell us who will win. On the surface to begin bowl week, that definitely favors Kentucky.

Clemson is very thin in the secondary

Clemson biggest opt-out in this game might be starting cornerback Nate Wiggins. For a defense that wants to play a fair amount of man coverage, not having a first-round talent will make an impact. Add in some of the other absences and the Tigers could be in a rough spot in coverage.

Jeadyn Lukas and Sheridan Jones each started games at cornerback for the Tigers this season. Both will miss the Gator Bowl due to injury. True freshmen Avieon Terrell (320 snaps) and Shelton Lewis (99 snaps) will earn starting assignments on Saturday. After that, things get tricky for the Tigers.

At safety, Andrew Mukuba was this defense’s best option at slot cornerback and the starter will not be available after leaving the program. That could force Clemson to play some lineups they haven’t really used all season.

Kentucky’s passing game has had a rough season, but they appear to have a good opportunity going against an aggressive defense. For an offense that needs to create explosive plays to score points, this personnel issue appears to have presented a great opportunity for a Kentucky passing game that will have all hands on deck in Jacksonville.

Clemson has struggled in recent SEC games

Mark Stoops and his Kentucky football program are letting anyone listening know that Clemson is not your typical ACC football program. After recording four consecutive double-digit win seasons from 2011-14, the Tigers took off like a rocket ship under head coach Dabo Swinney. From 2015-20, the Tigers claimed two national championships, two runner-up finishes, six ACC titles, six College Football Playoff berths, and a 79-7 overall record.

But this is a program that has shown some slippage since Trevor Lawrence left campus. The Tigers are now having issues in the non-conference against SEC foes. In their last six games against SEC competition, Clemson is 2-4 outright and against the spread. The Tigers have been a betting favorite in five of those games.

Kentucky has thrived against ACC teams out of conference. Since 2018, the Wildcats are 7-0 outright against ACC foes with a 6-1 against the spread record. The Wildcats have won three times as an underdog during this non-conference hot streak.

Will these trends continue in Jacksonville?