Turnovers could win or lose the Governor's Cup

Kentucky and Louisville will meet for the 36th time on Saturday afternoon at Kroger Field. For the 30th time, the winner will be presented the Governor’s Cup. Odds are high that the team carrying that trophy around Kroger Field will have a plus in the turnover column.

When most fans made the trek to Kroger Field on Thanksgiving Saturday, there will be some long defrosting needed for your vehicles. Temperatures will be below freezing during breakfast time and will creep up to 30 degrees around kickoff. The forecast is calling for the temperature to sit at 30-34 degrees during the game with 10-11 MPH winds in the stadium. That will make throwing and kicking the ball more difficult than normal.

Running the football and winning the turnover margin could separate the winner. Kentucky will have a tough challenge against an explosive Louisville rushing attack, but Kentucky’s efficient traditional run game should find some success against a leaky Louisville front.

That gets us to the turnover battle.

Louisville (-1) and Kentucky (-3) are both below level in the takeaway battle this season. The Cardinals have struggled to produce takeaways (11), but the offense has taken great care of the football with only 10 turnovers. The opposite has been true of Kentucky. We’ve seen UK’s defense force 15 takeaways, but the offense has 18 giveaways in 11 games. The Wildcats lost the turnover battle in six SEC games. The Cards lost the turnover battle against Notre Dame and in three ACC games.

Which team has the advantage? Louisville’s bal security on offense appears to give the road team the edge, but recent history says other wise.

Despite having a negative in the season turnover column in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023, we’ve seen Kentucky find a way to win the takeaway battle in each matchup against Louisville. The Cats are plus-eight in the turnover column in this series since 2019 with a multi-takeaway advantage in three of the four meetings.

Turnovers will have a big say in this game on Saturday. Yet another trend in this series is pointing in Kentucky’s direction. Louisville will need to snap this streak to end a long losing streak.