Handicapping Blue Grass Stakes Saturday at Keeneland

Zandon at Keeneland on Blue Grass Stakes Saturday — (Dr. Michael Huang | KSR)

Saturday marks the final day of major Kentucky Derby prep races with key contests in New York and California, in addition to the Keeneland feature. The Blue Grass Stakes is supported by four other graded stakes on Keeneland’s opening Saturday, making for an enticing and challenging all stakes Pick 5 sequence for horse players.

Handicap all the races yourself with a free program, courtesy of Keeneland.

RACE 5 – Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes

A well-matched field of 10 will take the post in this extended sprint distance for older runners. Nakatomi and Heart Rhythm are both perfect in 3 attempts over the Keeneland main track, but they might be best suited to the more traditional ¾ mile sprint distance. Get Her Number is arguably the class of the field with a pair of runner-up finishes in two Grade 1 contests out west. Speed figures suggest he fits quite well with this group, and we’ll see how the California form translates.

Hoist the Gold put in a very solid run to fill the place spot behind Gunite in the Perryville at this distance last fall. A quick half mile in :46 and 4 on Sunday morning indicates his readiness for this assignment. Run Classic posted an absolute blinder here in October with an 8-length triumph at the distance. Four straight two-turn tries ensued, and the son of Runhappy is the preferred choice cutting back to a sprint distance after that series of mixed results. He appears to possess the versatility required to lay close enough to what looks to be a very tepid pace, likely giving him first run on most of the other prime contenders.

RACE 6 – The Grade 2 Appalachian

An intriguing group of sophomore fillies lines up for this eight panel circuit around the Keeneland lawn. Heavenly Sunday and Well Into have both shown early promise in their first few outings. Either would need to take another step forward to best this field. Papilio nosed out Cairo Consort at Gulfstream in the most recent event for both fillies, but she had the better trip that day. Those two will certainly be rolling late again, and the trip will likely tell the tale once more. Pleasant Passage completed an excellent freshman season with a late closing run to fill the place spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over this track and trip. She has been training forwardly for her return, and she will certainly need to bring her running shoes to overcome the recency edge held by several of her primary rivals.

RACE 7 – The Grade 1 Madison

A compact but accomplished field of 5 will tackle this 7-furlong sprint, the first of two top level races on the day. Maryquitecontrary posts a stellar record of 6 victories and one runner-up finish in 7 career trips to the post. She has feasted on the weaker competition in Florida to this point. There should certainly be enough pace to set up her late run, so we’ll how she answers the class question.

Yuugiri and Society will battle for the early lead. Both are unbeaten around one-turn. Most would agree that Society was the better of the two last year, but Yuugiri does have the advantage of recency on her side. The prolonged speed duel that is almost certain to occur will set things up perfectly for Breeders’ Cup champion Goodnight Olive. She is perfect in two prior starts over the Keeneland surface and also unbeaten at the somewhat specialist distance of 7 furlongs. The daughter of Ghostzapper has performed exceptionally well off two similar layoffs in the past, so the time away is only a very minor concern. This appears to be the perfect spot for the champion to begin defense of her title.

RACE 8 – Grade 2 Shakertown Stakes

As one would expect for a turf sprint, there is ample speed signed on to contest this grade 2 affair. Artemus Citylimits is one of those that will no doubt be prominent early, but the gelding is now 0 for 4 over the Keeneland green and may find himself in a compromised position along the rail just behind the other main speed. Mister Mmmmm intrigues as a stalking type. He put up a strong 100 Beyer Speed Figure against a soft bunch in New Orleans last out. A replication of that type of run will see him right in the mix.

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Oceanic’s best races, including a runner-up finish behind the great Golden Pal in last fall’s Woodford over track and trip, are certainly good enough to find the winner’s circle. However, he ran poorly in the Breeders’ Cup and must overcome that considerable layoff against a top flight field today. Arrest Me Red is another that figures to be in prominent position early. He too must deal with that same layoff, and he’s not been at his sharpest coming off the bench in the past.

In contrast, Caravel has run quite well off a similar layoff in the past. Granted it was against softer competition over a different surface at Turfway, but she did capture a stake in her first start for Brad Cox last spring. A storybook-end to that campaign culminated with her resounding gate-to-wire Breeders’ Cup success. She’s perfect over the Lexington lawn, and you can expect that Brad Cox will not have her short in her return to the races. Bad Beat Brian may offer some value to spice up the exotics. The Jack Milton gelding has hit the board in 13 of 18 prior attempts at the distance, and he owns the benefit of 3 races this term over the Turfway polytrack.

RACE 9 – Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes

This long-time Derby prep offers a huge chunk of qualifying points for horses hoping to earn their spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Major Blue will no doubt look to catch a flier from the gate and try to steal this on the front end. Without much other speed to contend with, he may well take them a long way. You can bet that Brad Cox and Tyler Gaffalione are keenly aware of that suspected strategy. Expect them to utilize the tactical speed of Verifying as his greatest advantage and establish a position of prominence early, keeping the expected frontrunner within striking distance.

Scoobie Quando enters his first attempt over a natural dirt surface sporting a flashy :59 and 4 bullet in his most recent morning drill. He shouldn’t be overlooked. Tapit Trice will likely go favored following his Tampa Derby triumph, and he’ll have his work cut out for him breaking from the rail. It’s fair to question what he beat in Florida, but if he can back that performance up here he’ll head to Louisville as one of the favorites to capture the roses. Blazing Sevens ran too bad to believe in the Fountain of Youth. Chad Brown adds blinkers to his charge and continues along the Derby trail undeterred. Expect the son of Good Magic to return to the form that saw him become a grade 1 winner as a juvenile.