Handicapping Breeders’ Cup Saturday at Del Mar

Many of the best thoroughbreds in the world have assembled in southern California this weekend to compete in the 38th Breeders’ Cup.  While the handicapping puzzles are among the greatest challenges the game has to offer, the payouts often match.  A preview of the nine races that make up Breeders’ Cup Saturday:

Race 4 – The Filly and Mare Sprint

Anything can, and often does, happen in horse racing.  While there are no sure things, trying to beat Gamine in this spot hardly seems worth the effort.  It’s not the hill I’m going to die on.

Race 5 – The Turf Sprint

Wesley Ward sends out last year’s Juvenile Turf Sprint hero Golden Pal as the probable favorite to score back-to-back Breeders’ Cup victories.  His prep in the Woodford was visually impressive as he was headed in early stretch only to re-assert his dominance in the final eighth for an emphatic score.  The course was overly kind to frontrunners on the rail that day, so he certainly got the best of trips.  He’ll likely encounter a much tougher challenge on the front end today. 

Lieutenant Dan returned to Del Mar this summer after more than a year on the bench, and he has been flawless in three starts this term.  A perfect 2 for 2 at Del Mar and 3 for 3 at the distance, he’ll travel in the first flight, but his versatility will give him the best chance for a clean trip.  Gear Jockey will be flying late.  Is the distance a touch too short for him?  Caravel is 5 for 6 at the distance, and her stalking style seems best for the expected pace scenario.  Glass Slippers returns stateside to defend her title, but she was in much better form last year.  Emaraaty Ana looks like the best chance for Europe off his Sprint Cup triumph at Haydock.  Kimari intrigues from the Ward barn but seems to prefer the main track.

Race 6 – The Dirt Mile

Ginobili’s 3 for 4 record at Del Mar should not be ignored.  He’s barely an average horse everywhere else but turns into a different animal at the seaside oval.  Silver State won the Met Mile at Belmont around one turn but appears slightly less effective around a second turn. 

Life is Good is the horse to beat.  He dropped a neck decision to sprint favorite Jackie’s Warrior in the grade 1 Allen Jerkens at Saratoga when returning from injury and a 5-month layoff.  That remains the lone blemish in his career after he annexed the Kelso with ease in his prep for this challenge.  The Into Mischief colt is proven around two turns and should be able to establish a forward position early from his mid-post draw.

Race 7 – The Filly and Mare Turf

Audarya returns to the states to defend her title in this event.  While she merits considerable respect, her 2021 campaign has not been quite as strong as the one that prepared her for Breeders’ Cup glory last year.  In addition, this race is an eighth of a mile farther than she’s ever been before.  Loves Only You finished just a half length back of the great Mishriff in the Sheema Classic on the Dubai World Cup card and backed up that effort with a group 1 win in the Queen Elizabeth II at Sha Tin in Hong Kong.  The world traveler now makes her first trip to the U.S. and could well be the one to beat in here.  Love was the toast of Europe after her Guineas triumph and Oaks double last summer.  Sidelined following her coronation at York, she returned this term with a victory in her first start against males in the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot.  She hasn’t been able to reproduce that form in three subsequent starts but is still a contender in her current form. 

War Like Goddess has now reeled off 4 in a row for Bill Mott, becoming the top-rated turf filly on this continent in the process.  The sheet numbers earned in her last two make her competitive with the top Euros and her pristine record in 3 starts at the distance trumps all contenders.  Expect her to represent the home team well.

Race 8 – The Sprint

Jackie’s Warrior deserves the burden of favoritism as he’s been simply superb since his Woody Stephens hiccup.  The Maclean’s Music colt won’t back down from any challenge, and that ensures a hot pace with Following Sea to his inside and Special Reserve keeping things honest from his draw further outside.  Ignore Dr. Schivel and his impeccable record over course and distance at your own peril.  The Violence colt has also shown an ability to rate in addition to his affinity for the local surface.  Flavien Prat’s mount looks very dangerous.  Aloha West is another who seemingly has the right style to capitalize on a quick pace but make no bones about it – Jackie’s Warrior is the one they all have to beat.

Race 9 – The Mile

The presence of Smooth Like Strait and Blowout ought to ensure an honest pace, but if the filly cannot match strides early the aforementioned son of Midnight Lute could prove to be quite dangerous at the head of affairs given his liking of the seaside lawn.  Sheet numbers give no edge to Space Blues, the most fancied of European invaders, or his Irish brethren.  Figure makers rank this as a very evenly matched bunch.  This is not a race that should simply be given to the visitors. 

Mo Forza has won 8 of his last 9 outings, failing only when extended beyond his preferred 8-to-9-furlong trip in the 2020 edition of the Pegasus Turf.  Superb in just two starts this year, the Uncle Mo colt seems primed to defend his home turf.  In Love has put together a dazzling late season campaign with authoritative victories at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland.  The Paulo Lobo trainee is finding his best stride at just the right time.  Got Stormy has visited the winner’s enclosure 10 times in 20 chances at the mile distance, including a victory in the grade 1 Matriarch in her only trip over this course in 2019.  She prepped with a sprint at Kentucky Downs after securing her second renewal of the Fourstardave over eight panels at the Spa.  In a race that’s going to come down to who gets the best trip, she is likely to get first run on the boys that will take most of the money.

Race 10 – The Distaff

Flavien Prat is not going to allow Letruska to have her own way at the head of affairs as she has throughout most of her glittering 2021 campaign.  While the daughter of Super Saver has already earned her title as champion older mare this season the pace scenario dictates that she is quite vulnerable in this spot.  Despite having plenty of early lick at her disposal, Shedaresthedevil has shown a willingness to settle in behind others when it makes perfect sense to do so, and her Clement Hirsch success over the local strip gives her another edge over the favorite.  It’s possible though that the pace might even become too suicidal for her which would open the door for Royal Flag’s strong finishing kick or the grinding style of the imposing sophomore Malathaat, who also looks to be in fine fettle since arriving on the scene in southern California.  One can also make the case that Private Mission has as much room to improve as anyone and as we do not yet know just exactly what she is, could she keep going even after disposing of Letruska and Horologist?  Seems a tall task.

Race 11 – The Turf

The home team appears up against it in the penultimate race of these championships.  Defending champ Tarnawa is simply faster and classier.  The abbreviated three race campaign would seem to indicate that defending her title was always part of the plan.  While she lacks the top level awards she earned across the pond prior to adding this event at Keeneland last year, the Shamardal mare has been just as brilliant coming up less than a length shy of the spectacular St. Mark’s Basillica in the Irish Champion and Arc winner Torquator Tasso at Longchamp.  Her toughest competition looks to come from Godolphin’s Walton Street, who acclimated quite well to North American racing with a 110 Beyer and nearly 6 length drubbing of 7 opponents in the Canadian International.  Sisfahan kept very good company in Germany recently, hitting the board just behind the dazzling Alpinista and Torquator Tasso in his last two.  Further improvement is quite possible in just the seventh trip to the post for the French-bred sophomore.  Teona is another three-year old that looks to be on the improve at just the right time and merits consideration as an upset chance.

Race 12 – The Classic

Sheet figures say Knicks Go is simply the fastest of this group.  That’s generally a damn good way to win a race – be faster than everyone else.  However, you also have to get the distance – sometimes under intense pressure.  That intense pressure seems to come from multiple sources in this instance.  We know Medina Spirit will be sent hard to challenge without a doubt.  Hot Rod Charlie also performs best when forwardly placed.  The same can be said for Art Collector.  The pace scenario sets up perfectly for Essential Quality and Max Player.  Both seem to be peeking at the right time.  I’ll have more money relying on the Brad Cox trained son of Tapit, but both will be represented on multi-race tickets.  It shapes up as a very exciting race, enjoy.