Why Every Horse in the Field Can (and Can't) Win Kentucky Derby 148

Before you make your Kentucky Derby 148 selections, KSR shares something to know about every horse to help you make a profitable decision on the first Saturday in May.

1. Mo Donegal

• Morning Line: 10-1
• Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Owner: Donegal Racing

Why it will Win: The 111 speed figure Mo Donegal posted in the Wood Memorial is tied for the fastest in the field. The colt gunned down the speedy Early Voting, who also posted a 111 at Aqueduct Park. Even though the rail is unkind to most horses, Irad is the jockey that can take advantage of that post position.

Why it will Lose: History is not on Mo Donegal’s side. Fusaichi Pegasus is the last Wood Memorial winner to also win the Run for the Roses. It also won the Remsen Stakes as a two-year-old. That race has not produced a Derby winner since Thunder Gulch and Go for Gin won back-to-back Derbies in the early 90s.

2. Happy Jack

• Morning Line: 30-1
• Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
• Trainer: Doug O’Neill
• Owner: Calumet Farm

Why it will Win: Like My Boy Jack, this horse’s name could draw plenty of Derby day wagers. The West Coast product has not won since it broke its maiden in January, but it has not been on Lasix in any of those races. Add Lasix into the equation Saturday and that could change. The colt’s dam (mother) comes from the Tapit bloodline, which means it should be able to make the added distance at 1 1/4 miles.

Why it will Lose: Its losses in small fields on the west coast have been by an average of 16 lengths. Not great Bob.

3. Epicenter

• Morning Line: 7-2
• Jockey: Joel Rasario
• Trainer: Steve Asmussen
• Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Why it will Win: On paper, this is the best horse in the field. Posting 90 or better speed figures in all of its starts since it broke its maiden (aka won its first race), Epicenter has won back-to-back stakes races. It can win in a variety of ways, but it appears to be at its best stalking near the front just off the leader, the style of most recent Derby winners.

Why it will Lose: Steve Asmussen has more wins in North America than any other trainer, but has never won the big one. Drawing an inside post, the speed just to its outside could be detrimental if the horse gets a bad trip out of the gate.

4. Summer is Tomorrow

• Morning Line: 30-1
• Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
• Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
• Owner: Michael Hilary Burke and Negar Burke

Why it will Win: This international horse might be the fastest horse in the field. It is expected to be at the front of the pack when the field makes its first turn. One other thing to consider: if it’s a wet Kentucky Derby, this horse is bred to run well in the mud.

Why it will Lose: This horse might be best suited as a sprinter, winning all of its races at seven furlongs or less. Crown Pride caught the horse down the stretch at the UAE Derby. Adding two more furlongs might make Summer is Tomorrow fall out of the money.

5. Smile Happy

• Morning Line: 20-1
• Jockey: Corey Lanerie
• Trainer: Kenny McPeak
• Owner: Lucky Seven Stable

Why it will Win: The son of super sire Runhappy had an outstanding two-year-old season, winning the Kentucky Jockey Club prep that produced a ton of horses running this Saturday.

Why it will Lose: After an exceptional two-year-old season, it has not won as a three-year-old, caught from behind and blown away by Zandon in the Blue Grass Stakes. Also, beware: infamous bettor Mattress Mack owns its sire. Nobody screws up parimutuel betting quite like the loser from Houston who will likely throw $1 million on a horse and lower its odds dramatically.

6. Messier

• Morning Line: 8-1
• Jockey: John Velazquez
• Trainer: Tim Yakteen
• Owner: Starlight Racing

Why it will Win: Trained by Bob Baffert until his suspension, this horse’s resume is similar to two previous Baffert winners, Authentic and Medina Spirit. Neither won the Santa Anita Derby, but their speed figures improved until the Derby Day rolled around and the public slept on the horses. It scares me to throw this horse out.

Why it will Lose: Baffert ain’t walking through that door. Also, the Santa Anita ride could be fortuitous as the horse coasted down the stretch instead of finishing strong.

7. Crown Pride

• Morning Line: 20-1
• Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
• Trainer: Koichi Shintani
• Owner: Teruya Yoshida

Why it will Win: Japanese horses have never hit the board at the Kentucky Derby, but they’ve improved each time out, going from 14th, to 9th then most recently 6th. The country has produced winners on the international stage in the last year, with two Japanese winners at the Breeders’ Cup and five on Dubai World Cup day.

Why it will Lose: Even though the bar has been raised for Japanese horses, this speed oriented horse might not have enough gas in the tank against a crowded field.

8. Charge It

• Morning Line: 20-1
• Jockey: Luis Saez
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Owner: Whisper Hill Farm

Why it will Win: Charge It narrowed its Florida Derby deficit down the stretch, jumping form fourth to a close second. The extra distance could give this horse just what it needs. It’s finished first or second in all of its career starts.

Why it will Lose: The horse only has three career starts, all of which came at Gulfstream Park. The inexperienced runner could easily get lost in the shuffle.

9. Tiz the Bomb

• Morning Line: 30-1
• Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
• Trainer: Kenny McPeak
• Owner: Magdalena Racing

Why it will Win: A consistent horse, it was only a length and a half away from winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. The horse has improved its speed figures in its last two victories. Also, there’s no better name for a long shot to hit the board than “Tiz the Bomb.”

Why it will Lose: The two wins that got Tiz the Bomb into the Derby field were both on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. Most horsemen believe synthetic horses translate better onto turf than dirt. It bombed in its most recent dirt race, finishing seventh in the Holy Bull.

10. Zandon

• Morning Line: 3-1
• Jockey: Flavien Prat
• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Owner: Jeff Drown

Why it will Win: The morning line Kentucky Derby favorite has the most impressive win on its resume. It’s almost as if Prat pressed the NOS button to launch Zandon past the competition at the Blue Grass Stakes to come from the back and close with a 2 1/2 length victory.

Why it will Lose: The last time Zandon raced Epicenter, it lost by more than three lengths. As much fun as it is to cheer for a closer, horses that come from the back of the pack just don’t win the Derby anymore. The last time a closer won it all was 2013, the first year of the Road to Kentucky Derby points system.

11. Pioneer of Medina

• Morning Line: 30-1
• Jockey: Joe Bravo
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Owner: Sumaya U.S. Stable

Why it will Win: Like American Pharoah, this horse is the son of Pioneerof the Nile.

Why it will Lose: It’s one of the last horses to make the Kentucky Derby field and it has hit the board in just one stakes race since it posted back-to-back wins in December and January. The three-year-old ran with Zozos and Epicenter for the entire Louisiana Derby, but it just didn’t have as much juice as its competition. Add more talented horses to the equation and it will be hard for the horse to keep up.

12. Taiba

• Morning Line: 12-1
• Jockey: Mike Smith
• Trainer: Tim Yakteen
• Owner: Zedan Racing

Why it will Win: This former Baffert horse stunned the Santa Anita Derby competition when it beat the top horses on the West Coast in only its second start. Mike Smith will try to become the oldest jockey to ever win the Derby aboard a horse that has exceeded 100 speed figures in its only starts.

I know Taiba's circumstances are different given his lack of experience, but this is the list of horses dating back to 2012 who had at least two consecutive 100+ Beyer Speed Figures entering the Kentucky Derby and where they finished in the Derby itself: pic.twitter.com/r6ANwP0WSZ

— Matt Bernier (@bernier_matt) April 25, 2022

Why it will Lose: The horse was impressive stepping up a class in only its second start, but that start only had six horses in the field. This race will have three times as many horses. However, throwing out a Baffert horse that was bought for $1.7 million is a risky proposition.

13. Simplification

• Morning Line: 20-1
• Jockey: Jose Ortiz
• Trainer: Antonio Sano
• Owner: Tami Bobo

Why it will Win: Another horse that likes the lead, Simplification was in second for almost the entirety of the Florida Derby. There’s enough horse to hang around the top and hit the board. I may not be all in on Simplification, but one tip sheet I follow believes it’s the second-best horse in the Kentucky Derby field.

Why it will Lose: This horse did not like the crowd at the Florida Derby. The startled three-year-old wasted a lot of energy on the walk over. If it was bothered by the Gulfstream crowd, wait until Simplification gets in front of 150,000 people at Churchill Downs.

14. Barber Road

• Morning Line: 30-1
• Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
• Trainer: John Ortiz
• Owner: WSS Racing

Why it will Win: One of the most experienced runners in the field, Barber Road has ran eight times in his young career. On seven of those occasions he was in the money.

Why it will Lose: This horse is a perpetual bridesmaid, finishing second in four of its most recent five races. At some point its confidence will be shaken after continually failing to get over the hump. Coming from the Oaklawn Park circuit in Arkansas, analysts generally consider that group to be among the weakest of the three-year-olds.

15. White Abarrio

• Morning Line: 10-1
• Jockey: Tyler Gafflione
• Trainer: Joseph Saffie Jr.
• Owner: C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable

Why it will Win: More Florida Derby winners have won the Kentucky Derby than any other prep race. A beautiful gray horse, the only loss of the horse’s career was to Smile Happy as a two-year-old in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

Why it will Lose: Outside of the Jockey Club loss, White Abarrio has exclusively raced at Gulfstream Park. If the Kentucky Derby was being raced in South Florida, you can lock up the race for White Abarrio. Outside of Florida? I’m not sure what horse is going to show up to the racetrack.

16. Cyberknife

• Morning Line: 20-1
• Jockey: Florent Geroux
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Owner: Gold Square LLC.

Why it will Win: Brad Cox will try to become the first trainer to ever win the Kentucky Derby in consecutive years. One of only four horses to enter the Kentucky Derby on a two-race win streak, Cyberknife has the running style of previous winners. FloGo can stalk the leader just off the pace to be in position to make a late run for the win.

Why it will Lose: This horse is a little green. It lacked discipline down the stretch of the Arkansas Derby win, swaying its head erratically instead of running in a straight line at a forward pace. It was good enough to defeat a weaker field, but probably not one this large.

17. Classic Causeway

• Morning Line: 30-1
• Jockey: Julien Leparoux
• Trainer: Brian Lynch
• Owner: Clarke Cooper Family Trust

Why it will Win: Classic Causeway was an early Derby favorite after it won back-to-back stakes races in the Sam F. Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby. It completely bounced in the Florida Derby, finishing 11th. If you can confidently throw out that performance, you can get this pony at a nice price.

Why it will Lose: A horse has never won the Kentucky Derby from post No. 17.

18. Tawny Port

• Morning Line: 30-1
• Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Owner: Peachtree Stable

Why it will Win: The most recent winner in the field, Tawny Port took home the Lexington Stakes just three weeks ago at Keeneland. Before punching its ticket to the Derby, Brad Cox’s horse ran a 99 speed figure in a second-place effort in the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Why it will Lose: The horse’s fastest figure was on a synthetic surface. It slowed down to a 90 in the weak Lexington field.

19. Zozos

• Morning Line: 20-1
• Jockey: Manny Franco
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Owner: Barry and Joni Butzow

Why it will Win: Of the three Cox horses, Zozos has the most front-end speed. It’s got a long way to go from the outside post, but it will press the pack and is expected to be near the front through the fast half of the race. A second-place finisher last time out to Epicenter, this horse’s career path is not so different from Mandaloun’s. Just like last year’s winner, a good break with outside speed could put it in the right spot to finish strong.

Why it will Lose: It’s only the fourth start of the horse’s career and just the second stakes race. It’s a significant step up in competition in an enormous field. Coming wide from the outside, if the horse isn’t placed toward the front, it will simply have to run too much farther than the rest of its competition to win the race.

20. Ethereal Road

• Morning Line: 30-1
• Jockey: Luis Contreras
• Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
• Owner: Julie Gilbert and Aaron Sones

Why it will Win: 86-year-old D. Wayne Lukas is seeking his fifth Kentucky Derby victory, more than any other trainer in this year’s field. The horse was at its best in a second-place effort (91 speed fig.) in the Rebel Stakes.

Why it will Lose: In order to get a shot at the Derby, D. Wayne ran Ethereal Road in the Lexington off one week’s rest. Three races in four weeks was commonplace when Lukas started training, but he’s asking too much from his horse too soon.