Handicapping Future Stars Friday at the Breeders’ Cup

The 38th running of the Breeders’ Cup will take place this weekend at Del Mar near San Diego.  This is the second trip to the seaside oval for the championship event.  The races were last held here in 2017, when Gun Runner secured a Horse of the Year title by dominating the penultimate start of his career in the Classic.  In this edition of the championships, the most precocious of his first crop will compete for titles of their own.  Here’s a preview of the five races encompassing the Breeders’ Cup portion of Friday’s card.

Race 6 – The Juvenile Turf Sprint

Wesley Ward won the last two editions of this race, and he comes loaded with 3 of the 12 entrants in this year’s running.  Two of those three will likely vie for favoritism.  Averly Jane won her first four starts by a combined margin in excess of 22 lengths.  The daughter of Midshipman has plenty of gate speed but has also shown the ability to rate.  That versatility should serve her well in a contest with ample early pace.  Her stablemate Twilight Gleaming broke her maiden by a widening 7 ½ lengths over a next out winner on the Belmont lawn.  She fell just short in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and rebounded with a narrow victory over soft going at Deauville.  Freshened since that effort in early August, it appears she’ll appreciate the return to firm footing in sunny southern California.  Armor, by young sire sensation No Nay Never (trained, ironically enough, by Wesley Ward) looks to hold the best chance for the colts.  He’s been chasing Europe’s preeminent juvenile turf sprinter, Perfect Power, and just missed by ¾ of a length in their most recent encounter.  If he can transfer his European form to the fast footing at Del Mar, he should be a handful for Ward’s fillies.  

Race 7 – The Juvenile Fillies

Echo Zulu will be one of the bigger favorites on the card, and deservedly so.  She’s perfect in 3 lifetime appearances, winning off by more than 16 combined lengths in those efforts.  However, there is reason to consider others that might offer more value.  The daughter of Gun Runner will be navigating a second turn for the first time in her career, and she’ll be doing it without regular rider Ricardo Santana Jr.  Hidden Connection has run the same Thorograph number (4) in her two victories, by a combined 16+ lengths, as Echo Zulu.  The Connect filly handled a second turn with aplomb in her Pocahontas romp at Churchill.  Juju’s Map has already aced two turns as well, as she took the Alcibiades at Keeneland with ease.  Slight preference goes to Hidden Connection though as Juju may be tasked with applying the early pressure to Zulu.  Tarabi is an intriguing wild card.  She smashed into the gate at the break in the Spinaway, but still managed to beat everyone but Echo Zulu home.  She’s been training extremely well for Cherie DeVaux for this challenge.

Race 8 – The Juvenile Fillies Turf

Brad Cox took this event last year with Aunt Pearl, and he holds a strong hand again with the duo of Turnerloose and Bubble Rock situated side-by-side in stalls 4 and 5.  Turnerloose will appreciate the cut back in distance to a mile off her narrow loss in the Jessamine.  A daughter of More Than Ready out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, Bubble Rock was bred to win races like this one.  She stretches out around a second turn for the first time, but Cox strikes at an outstanding 32% clip in such situations.  The allure of Bubble Rock is only emboldened by the fact that top European filly Mise En Scene will have a much tougher go of things from her outside draw in post 13.  Koala Princess is another very interesting daughter of More Than Ready as she is also stretching out following a sprint victory over the undulating course at Kentucky Downs.  Joel Rosario has chosen to keep the mount as opposed to sticking with Pizza Bianca, a grade 1 winner in her last trip to the post.

Race 9 – The Juvenile

Jack Christopher was expected to be the favorite, but he was a late scratch.  A son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate, Jasper Great won his Japanese debut in facile fashion.  He may be one to keep an eye on if the odds are right.  Commandperformance is still a maiden, but the Champagne runner-up made up a good bit of ground on Jack Christopher through the lane, and his pedigree suggests he may be much more well suited to two turn racing. 

Race 10 – The Juvenile Turf

An excellent betting race is on tap in the Friday finale.  It appears that the best of the Euro invaders suffered the worst of it at the post draw.  Sons of the brilliant Dubawi are drawn on the rail and to the far outside in the form of Modern Games and Dubawi Legend respectively.  The latter exits a fine runner-up finish in the group 1 Dewhurst at Newmarket while the former took the group 3 Somerville over the same course and distance in September.  Either could be the most talented of this bunch, and they will need to be superior to emerge victorious from their disadvantageous draw. 

Another son of Dubawi rates a very strong chance as well from post 2.  Albahr found the wire first in every trip to the post since his debut, including the grade 1 Summer on this side of the pond at Woodbine.  He figures to attract plenty of support with Frankie Dettori in the irons.  Next to him is Dakota Gold who has the least amount of experience in the field but received the fastest sheet number of his peer group last time out in the Nownownow at Monmouth. 

Tiz the Bomb has a nose for the wire.  His Bourbon victory at Keeneland was especially impressive as he broke through the gate and ran off prior to the race.  Pay close attention to how well Run Curtis Run fares in the sprint earlier on the card and then grade Slipstream accordingly as he beat that rival by a length in the Futurity at Belmont.  He stretches out around a second turn for the first time but may find himself alone at the head of affairs.  Portfolio Company has improved in each of his three starts.  While he is yet to find the wire first in stakes company, further improvement here could certainly put him in contention for the top spot.

Best of luck on day one of the Breeders’ Cup and remember it is a two-day event.  Don’t blow through the bankroll  before the older horses hit the track on Saturday.