Handicapping the 2022 Blue Grass Stakes Day at Keeneland

It’s springtime in the Bluegrass, and opening weekend of the Keeneland spring meet is upon us.  Spring in Kentucky is the most diverse of seasons.  37 degrees and sunny one day.  68 degrees and rainy with 20mph winds the next.  Unfortunately for participants and fans, the weather will be the headline story this weekend.  A mix of snow and rain with significant wind fills the opening Saturday forecast.  Track condition will play a primary role in determining the outcome of the races, and finding horses that can adequately handle the off going will be the key to wagering success.  As has been the norm in recent years, the Bluegrass Stakes will serve as the feature on an opening Saturday of the meet that serves up 4 other graded events for horseplayers.  We’ll do our best here to uncover the equine athletes most likely to find the unfortunate conditions in their favor and hopefully unlock a few winners.

RACE 5, The Grade 3 Commonwealth 

Nashville is the even-money morning line favorite in the day’s first of five stake races.  A perfect 2 for 2 over the Keeneland strip, he broke his maiden over a sloppy track in Saratoga and is adequately bred to relish the conditions.  Luis Saez will look to utilize the Speightstown colt’s blistering speed to lead this field from pillar to post.  It is quite difficult to figure who might be able to apply enough pressure to the Steve Asmussen pupil to deny him a third trip to the Keeneland winner’s enclosure.  All that said, there is reason enough to think he might be vulnerable.  Two of his 3 losses came in his limited attempts against stakes company.  Perhaps he’s one to feast on lesser competition but wither when opponents get tougher.  The 7-furlong distance is also a question as he finished off the board in his only other attempt at the trip. 

In his third start off the layoff, Prevalence seems as likely as any to upset the heavy favorite.  Exiting a strong victory at Gulfstream, the Medaglia d’Oro colt out of a Ghostzapper mare should appreciate the track conditions.  Lightly raced, the 4-year old still has room to improve and may be ready to take a big step forward in this spot.  O Besos looks like he might appreciate the cut back in distance from two-turn racing as he was 2 for 3 at sprint distances early in his career.  He’s also 2 for 3 on wet tracks – certainly worth considering.

RACE 6, The Grade 2 Appalachian

This one-mile contest for sophomore fillies is scheduled for the turf.  We’ll assume that’s where the race will take place – with the historical knowledge that Keeneland doesn’t hesitate to pull even graded races from the grass in favor of the main track when conditions are slightly less than ideal.  With two grade 1 grass miles scheduled for next weekend, expect the rail to be well out at minimum.  There’s nothing not to like about Spendarella.  She’s perfect in her two lifetime trips to the post.  She has the speed necessary to dictate the pace, and her pedigree suggests she ought to be able to handle softer going.  Skims looks to be heading in the right direction after a brief winter break, and she too should appreciate the give in the ground.  Ouraika may relish the ground, but it’s fair to question whether she can get the distance as her first attempt at a second turn resulted in the worst finish of her career.

RACE 7, The Grade 1 Madison

Defending champion Kimari has yet to taste defeat in 2 prior starts on the Keeneland main track (and another over the lawn).  The daughter of Munnings is also unbeaten in two efforts over sloppy tracks.  She’s versatile enough to adapt to any pace scenario and will be very tough to beat on her home course.  Bell’s the One will certainly be running late, but her closing kick appears to be slightly more effective at the 6-furlong distance than with the additional panel of today’s race.  Lady Rocket ran a monster 107 Beyer in the Go for Wand at Aqueduct in December.  She’s been given ample time to recover from that effort and has been training exceptionally for her top-level debut.  She’ll have plenty of company at the head of affairs with Center Aisle, Just One Time and Tiz Splendid News all gunning for the lead as well.  If she can rate effectively her numbers suggest she’s capable of giving Kimari a run for her money.

RACE 8, the Grade 2 Shakertown

Golden Pal is a special animal who’s done some pretty incredible things in his eight-race career.  A Breeders’ Cup winner at 2 and 3 at this distance with 2 prior stake wins over this track and trip, the son of Uncle Mo will most certainly control the pace.  It will take a monumental effort for anyone to get by him.  The Lir Jet is the most likely candidate to upset the champ.  He beat Golden Pal in their first encounter at Royal Ascot in the Norfolk Stakes.  While a good bit of time has passed since that juvenile test, the Irish gelding regained his winning form last September at Kentucky Downs after 8 straight losing efforts.  He may just be better equipped for the turf sprints in this country, run around a bend on flat ground – and on mostly firmer courses. 

Filo Di Arianna is another intriguing prospect.  He’s won his four starts by nearly 30 lengths combined – considerable margins of victory for turf sprints.  The son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer handled heavy ground with aplomb in Brazil.  It’s a gigantic step up in class, but he may be worth a stab at double digit odds.

RACE 9, The Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes

This isn’t a terribly imposing group for a top-level Derby prep, but there are some lightly raced colts in here that could be ready to make significant strides forward in their development.  Ethereal Road finally broke his maiden in his fourth career start at Oaklawn in late January.  He backed up that win with a close runner-up performance in the Rebel.  The son of Quality Road has worked well since, and his pedigree suggests he shouldn’t be too bothered by the going.  Zandon lost all chance when hopping at the break of the Risen Star, but he finished well to hit the board.  After 5 steady works at Payson Park the son of Upstart should be primed for a top performance.  The Chad Brown trainee looks like the most likely winner.  Smile Happy broke his maiden over the Keeneland strip last fall.  He’ll benefit from his runner-up effort in the Risen Star and looms a major threat to secure the 100 Derby qualifying points awarded to the winner. 

Rattle N Roll won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity here in October in dominating fashion, but he’s been pretty much a no-show in two starts this year.  Perhaps a return to Lexington will re-ignite his juvenile form.  Emmanuel won his first two starts by a combined 11 lengths, but never quite found his stride in the Fountain of Youth.  He should improve from the experience and merits some level of respect based on the dominance of his first two starts.  Commandperformance may hold the record for most Grade 1 starts by a maiden.  There must be some reason Todd Pletcher continues to enter the Union Rags colt against the most elite company.  Perhaps he’ll show it today.  Blackadder ships east from the Bob Baffert barn, and while his stakes conquest came over a synthetic surface, he’s bred to enjoy the kind of track he’s likely to find today.  

Best of luck at the windows and all the best to everyone who dares to brave the weather and enjoy a day at the track.