Heavy minutes on Kentucky's starting five won't be sustainable forever

If Kentucky wants to make a deep run in March, they need to get healthy — and it needs to happen soon.

Two of the Wildcats’ key backcourt pieces, CJ Fredrick and Sahvir Wheeler, have sat out the last several games as they recover from various injuries. Fredrick suffered a cracked rib that has cost him the last four contests while an ankle issue has sidelined Wheeler for the previous five. There is hope that Fredrick could return as soon as this weekend when Auburn comes to town, but the jury is still out on Wheeler, although he’s making progress and is participating in individual workouts.

Fredrick and Wheeler combined to average over 55 minutes per game during SEC play prior to going down with their respective injuries. That’s more than enough to consider them significant losses. In their absence, someone needed to soak those minutes up, which has resulted in Cason Wallace and Antonio Reeves playing an unsustainable amount of minutes. Wallace is averaging 36.7 minutes per game over the last five outings and Reeves is right behind at 35.5. While Kentucky has still won its last three games in spite of these two playing the majority of backcourt minutes, it’s come at the cost of their shooting percentages.

Over the last five games, Wallace is shooting just 35.0 percent from the field and is 1-19 from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Reeves isn’t much better, connecting on 38.2 percent of his shots over UK’s last five games. Before this recent stretch? Wallace was shooting 47.8 percent overall (in 30.9 MPG) with Reeves not far behind at 42.8 percent (in 24.4 MPG). It’s likely no coincidence that their shooting percentages have dipped right as their minutes spiked. That’s what happens when you have the ball more often than not. If that trend continues into March, Kentucky won’t make it very far.

While this minutes infusion for both has led to positives — Wallace is averaging 6.8 assists per game over his last five as the lone point guard while Reeves has established himself as a microwave scorer opposing defenses have to zero in on — it’s coming at the cost of their mental and physical stamina.

Wallace, who is invaluable on the defensive end, is already dealing with nagging back spasms that flare up unpredictably. During Kentucky’s 82-74 win over Florida on Wednesday night, he even fouled a three-point shooter at the worst possible time — a mental lapse with three minutes left in a tight game that came as a result of his exhaustion after playing all 20 minutes in the second half.

Wallace and Reeves are clearly high-level athletes, but at this late stage in the season, everyone is slowing down. Kentucky will need them as well-rested as possible heading into the postseason. Averaging 35-plus minutes per game is not the formula to make that happen. Getting Fredrick and Wheeler back sooner rather than later is imperative if only to give Wallace and Reeves some much-needed breaks. It’s a double-edged sword though, as UK can’t afford to rush anyone back from injury.

But it’s not just the backcourt facing this problem. Wallace and Reeves aren’t the only ones taking on a larger load of minutes. The rest of Kentucky’s starting five — Chris Livingston, Jacob Toppin, and Oscar Tshiebwe — are on the floor just as often. Livingston is averaging 35.5 minutes per game over the last five, Toppin is at 35.9, and Tshiebwe is “last” with 34.3. Toppin and Tshiebwe have actually been playing too many minutes for most of the season now. Both rank among the SEC’s top 15 players in percentage of minutes played, per KenPom.

All five starters played the entirety of the second half against Florida.

Unlike the backcourt, however, the extra playing time appears to have the frontcourt stepping up their games even more, although they don’t have the ball in their hands nearly as often. Toppin is on an 11-game streak of double-figure scoring while Livingston has recorded double-doubles in back-to-back outings. Tshiebwe just dropped 25 points on 12-13 shooting against Florida.

But at what point does the minutes’ load begin to wear on them, too? The last thing Kentucky needs right now is for one of those three to get knocked out for any amount of time. While there are backup options out there for them (which is more than the guards can say right now), it’s not even close to the ideal scenario.

Head coach John Calipari has other players at his disposal capable of making an impact, but it’s clear he doesn’t trust them to play extended minutes, which is probably the right move heading into the postseason. As much as fans clamor for more minutes to the likes of Adou Thiero and Daimion Collins, there’s a very good reason they don’t regularly play.

Thiero is a serviceable defender, but is untested on offense and as a ball handler, especially against SEC opponents. He’s shooting just 25 percent from the field during league action. Collins is just as unreliable on offense, even if he makes an impact with his rim-protecting abilities. Calipari needs guys who can make things happen on both ends of the floor (or at least do enough on offense to cancel out any defensive inefficiencies, which is sometimes the case with Reeves). Lance Ware brings toughness but is a complete non-factor on offense.

In the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, Kentucky can’t rely on any of those three to play more than 5-10 minutes in a pinch. To be blunt, that would not be a recipe for success, and likely means foul trouble has infected the starting five. Thiero hasn’t scored more than four points in a game since November. Collins hasn’t played more than 10 minutes in a game since UK took on South Carolina and Alabama in early January (which both resulted in losses for the ‘Cats). Ware has scored just 15 total points during SEC games while Ugonna Onyenso has only seen the court for 14 minutes against SEC teams.

Even though they all bring different skills to the hardwood, there just isn’t a track record that shows they can contribute at a consistent level. You can blame Calipari for not getting them more involved throughout the season (or even for not calling timeouts that would give his starters a quick rest), but like it or not, this is where Kentucky is at right now.